Christmas and New Year is well behind us now and it is time for the opening Grand Slam of the tennis calendar as the best players in the world head to Melbourne for the Australian Open.
We saw an incredible tournament 12 months ago when Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal played out a memorable final which the former won and both will be eager to land another major title to their glittering CVs.
Recent Winners
2017 – Roger Federer
2016 – Novak Djokovic
2015 – Novak Djokovic
2014 – Stan Wawrinka
2013 – Novak Djokovic
2012 – Novak Djokovic
2011 – Novak Djokovic
2010 – Roger Federer
2009 – Rafael Nadal
2008 – Novak Djokovic
The Format
The traditional Grand Slam format is in operation for this tournament with the 128 man field assigned positions in the draw bracket. Each match will be played out over the best of five sets in a straight knockout. This is one of the two tournaments where there is no tiebreak in the final set.
Top Quarter
World number one Rafael Nadal is the top seed in this tournament and he is in this quarter as a result. Marin Cilic is rated as his biggest danger in this section while the other two top 16 seeds are John Isner and the US Open semi-finalist Pablo Carreno Busta. The other seeds in this quarter are Damir Dzumhur, Diego Schwartzman, Gilles Muller and Pablo Cuevas.
There are one of two decent qualifiers and unseeded players in this part of the draw as well. Ryan Harrison is probably the pick of them and he’s in good form while Gilles Simon and Borna Coric can take out the big names on their day.
Second Quarter
It is the losing semi-finalist from 12 months ago who is the top seed in this quarter in the form of the ATP World Tour Finals winner Grigor Dimitrov. If everything goes as expected he will face Jack Sock in the quarter final. The other seeds in this quarter are Andrey Rublev, Nick Kyrgios, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Kevin Anderson, Lucas Pouille and Philipp Kohlschreiber.
There are some decent names who aren’t seeded in this quarter too. Ivo Karlovic still remains a threat while Kyle Edmund and Denis Shapovalov will be looking to make 2018 a big year. David Ferrer and Marcos Baghdatis are veterans who will hope to cause another stir.
Third Quarter
Alexander Zverev will go into the tournament as the highest seed in this third quarter but Dominic Thiem is not far behind him and that would make a good quarter final should they meet. The other seeds are Adrian Mannarino, Roberto Bautista Agut, Stan Wawrinka, a certain Novak Djokovic, Albert Ramos-Vinolas and Mischa Zverev so it is fair to see this is a stacked quarter.
If those names were not enough we have Daniil Medvedev, winner of the title in Sydney last week, Gael Monfils, Donald Young, Jeremy Chardy and Fernando Verdasco are all unseeded players in this quarter.
Bottom Quarter
We have to wait a while in the draw but this is where the defending champion Roger Federer will launch his title defence from. He is seeded to encounter David Goffin in the quarter final but Fabio Fognini, Tomas Berdych, Juan Martin del Potro, Sam Querrey, Milos Raonic and Richard Gasquet are seeded to deny them.
Robin Haase, Feliciano Lopez, Frances Tiafoe, Alex de Minaur and Evgeny Donskoy are all unseeded players in this quarter so whoever comes through it will have to go through some pretty decent talent along the way.
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Outright Betting
With doubts over some of the big names and Federer having a right old route to come through to defend the title finding value in this tournament is quite tricky. Ultimately I think we have to knock the idea of value on the head and just back the player in the best part of the draw irrespective of the price he is so that is what I’ll do.
Grigor Dimitrov did me a favour when he won the ATP World Tour Finals in November and I’m going to take him again. He has already been to the semi-final in Brisbane this season and if we think back 12 months he was only an epic semi-final away from making the final here. A repeat of that sort of form here, and you could easily argue he is a better player now anyway, should see him go very close from a very favourable draw.
Quarter Betting
I’ll go with a couple of quarter bets alongside that especially in the top quarter where the fitness issues of Rafael Nadal means we have to take him on. Marin Cilic would be the obvious pick but I’m going to think a little outside the box. Ryan Harrison made the final in Brisbane which shows that the work he has been doing with Andy Murray in the close season has had an effect and at a big price he could come through. If Nadal is injured and Cilic flops somewhere this quarter would be wide open. Harrison has winning form behind him and may not be the worst bet in the world.
Although Roger Federer is not injured he is very short to come through a testing quarter. The man who might give him his toughest test could be Juan Martin del Potro. We know Delpo can beat Federer in a Grand Slam. He’s done it twice in New York and off the back of a run to the final in Auckland last week we know he’s playing well. That was an extension of an excellent end to 2017 and there’s enough to make me think he can make the semi-final here if not a couple of legs further.
Tips
Back G.Dimitrov to win Australian Open (e/w) for a 2/10 stake at 12.00 with Paddy Power (1/2 1-2)
Back him here:
Back R.Harrison to win 1st Quarter for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Bet365
Back J-M.del Potro to win 4th Quarter for a 2/10 stake at 8.00 with Betfred
Back him here:
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