The two day Breeders Cup meeting begins at Churchill Downs on Friday night as a star studded card gets one of the biggest race meetings in the world up and running. We had a good meeting in this event last year and we’ve picked out three to focus on for the opening day.
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7.21 Churchill Downs: Juvenile Turf Sprint
Preview
4 runners from Europe in this 12 months ago and they finished 1-2-3-4 so it’s unsurprising to see 6 of 12 strong field from this side of the Atlantic this time including the front 3 in the market.
Betting
The big question here is who will like the softish ground and has enough class to win. I sense an upset and think the home side are the ones to fear with my fancy being 20/1 shot Moonlight Romance. She likes to force the pace and has a good draw in 6; whilst not having encountered soft ground, I doubt she’ll be inconvenienced by it and she’s a filly in good form.
After being beat by stablemater Shang Shang Shang on her debut, she’s stepped up the further she’s gone. A couple of big distance wins from the front have sandwiched a disappointing trip to the UK but her trainer stated that there was some upset in the stalls. With 5 places on offer, she looks well overpriced to me.
Tips
Back Moonlight Romance (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 21.00 William Hill BOG (⅕ odds 1-5)
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8.00 Churchill Downs: Juvenile Fillies Turf
Preview
It’s quite important to race relatively prominently here and a low draw, especially in this race, is preferable. Aiden O’Brien saddles Just Wonderful but is winless from 11 runners so she’s passed over whilst Chad Brown has an exceptional record in the race & has the favourite Newspaperofrecord running from him. She is the class act but with the dismal record of favourites, I’m going to chance one at longer odds.
Betting
Drawn 1 and a horse that likes to sit just off the pace, I am sweet on Concrete Rose who has won her 2 starts to date. She’s been noted quickening both times & asserting in the straight so she definitely has the credentials to take this. Her last win was in a Grade 2 and she clocked a RPR just below that of the favourite so she looks a nice each way bet in an open race.
Tips
Back Concrete Rose (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 11.00 Skybet BOG (⅕ odds 1-4)
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9.22 Churchill Downs: Juvenile Turf
Preview
I’ll keep this simple. Aiden O’Brien has an excellent record in the race & fancied runners do well so Anthony Van Dyck is hard to oppose. No other horse in the field has record a RPR over 108 whilst this fella’s last 4 RPRs have ranged between 111 and 119. He does have the coffin box draw but on this ground, I’m not worried.
Betting
He gets Lasix, should go on the ground having won on yielding and has twice been in the first 3 at the very highest level. With the opposition looking pretty weak, I’m happy to go in at current odds.
Tips
Back Anthony Van Dyck for a 3/10 stake at 3.75 Betfair BOG
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