Saturday sees us head over to the UAE for the Dubai World Cup card. Our preview of the big race is below, along with 1 other bet from the supporting card.
5.50 Dubai World Cup
Favourite
10 runners for the big one, the Dubai World Cup, and the race looks to revolve around Breeders Cup Classic 3rd, West Coast, who is trading around Evens. Trained by the mighty Bob Baffert who has a good record in this race & despite finishing behind Gun Runner the last twice, he still appears to be in excellent form. He’ll be hard to beat but, at the price, I’d prefer to look for one a little bit further down the market.
Preview
North America comfortably won a Group 1 last time out but had the run of the race that day & the rival he beat that day, Thunder Snow, turned him over the race previous & is double the price. He does have a good draw close to the rail but I can’t see his opponents giving him an easy time & it would be no surprise to see him swamped late on.
Forever Unbridled has some excellent form in the book, winning her last 2 including a pair of Group 1s but she faces the boys now & that might just halt her run of form. Talismanic is a French raider who would be a big danger on his recent form. He does, however, try dirt for the first time & it’s a big ask for a horse to try a new surface & land such a race.
Gunnevera is a really consistent horse but has finished quite a way behind West Coast the last twice & I see no reason why he’ll turn that form around, which leaves me with 2 each way fancies.
Betting
Pavel is the first of those. He’s a very lightly raced colt who could only finish 10th in the Breeders Cup Classic but I’ll put that down to inexperience. Since then, he’s twice started favourite finishing 4th both times. The first of those, in the Group 1 Malibu, was over an inadequate trip before an improved run in the Group 2 San Pasqual where he had zero luck in running. There’s no doubt in my mind that he would have won with a clear run & would have started shorter for this race. There are some positive noises from the stable so at a huge price, he’s worth an each way investment especially with the scope for significant improvement.
The second one I like is Thunder Snow who was 2nd behind North America last time. He loves this track with 3 wins & 2 seconds from 5 starts, and was a winner of the UAE Derby last year. When beating North America 2 starts ago, he ran 14 metres more than the runner up so that performance can be significantly upgraded. He gets on particularly well with Christophe Soumillon & should get the race run to suit today. His price of 20/1 is out of kilter with North America and, purely from a value angle, he’s one to side with.
Tips
Back Pavel (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 15.00 Unibet BOG (⅕ odds 1-3)
Back it here:
WON – Back Thunder Snow (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 21.00 Betfair Sportsbook BOG (⅕ odds 1-3)
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5.10 Dubai Sheema Classic
Favourite
A mile and a half for this Group 1 on turf, and there’s 10 facing the starter. Arc runner-up Cloth Of Stars in the likely favourite and with a recent race record of 1-1-2-2-2, it’s easy to see why. However, he had a good draw in the Arc & was readily brushed aside on last run behind Talismanic. There are others at bigger prices worth considering.
Preview
The 2 Japanese raiders, Rey De Oro and Satono Crown, aren’t easily dismissed. The former won 5 of his first 6 starts but has lost his last 2 so, again, at just 7/2, it’s worth looking elsewhere. Satoma Crown has a good each way chance & has drifted to this price because of his last 2 runs but, back to his best, he’d be trading much shorter. His jockey appears confident & I wouldn’t put anyone off his chance.
Betting
The one I like, though, is Hawkbill who won his last start from Frontiersman in a Group 2 over course & distance, breaking the track record in the process. A winner of 9 of his 19 career starts, including a Group 1 & 2 Group 2’s. He won the Eclipse in 2016 & the Prince Of Wales last year. Since then, he’s finished 2nd in a pair of Group 1’s before that run here last time up. Buick is 8 from 14 on the horse & that run round here 3 weeks ago will have put him spot on for this. A double figure price is too big to ignore.
Tips
WON – Back Hawkbill (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 12.00 Bet365 BOG (¼ odds 1-3)
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