After a couple of big tournaments in America, the European Tour returns this week as we begin to gear up for the final series with a number of top events. That begins with the Nordea Masters in Gothenburg which has plenty on the line.
Events are beginning to run out for those not yet secured of their tour cards for next season to get them but more importantly tournaments to qualify for the Ryder Cup team are drawing to a close so there is plenty at stake here.
Recent Winners
2017 – Renato Paratore
2016 – Matthew Fitzpatrick
2015 – Alex Noren
2014 – Thongchai Jaidee
2013 – Mikko Ilonen
2012 – Lee Westwood
2011 – Alex Noren
2010 – Richard S. Johnson
2009 – Ricardo Gonzalez
2008 – Peter Hanson
The Course
Renato Paratore will defend on a different course to the one he won on last year. This year the tournament takes place at the Hills Golf Club in Gothenburg. The course is a par 70 which measures 6,931 yards and despite a dry summer recent rain will mean it will play a full yardage.
The thing the dry summer does mean is that there is little rough here so on this undulating track the bigger hitters can let it fly. One thing which might count against them is the fact there are five par threes on the course. With the soft conditions we are looking for a low score so good putters to make birdies will be advantageous.
The Field
We need to recognise that we’ve had two huge events in America and it is also the final week of the regular season Stateside too so the field here this week has been hampered as a result but we do still have a Rolex Series winner in Thorbjorn Olesen headlining the field.
He is joined by a host of Swedish players in the form of Alexander Bjork, Joakim Lagergren, Markus Kinhult and Jens Dantorp while the former Ryder Cup star Martin Kaymer is in the field as well. Robert Rock and Andrew Johnston will lead the British charge in a low key field.
Market Leaders
Thorbjorn Olesen is the favourite to win the tournament this week at 17/2. He is a standout class act and luckily for him and his followers his golf clubs arrived on the eve of the tournament but this is a man who has been competitive in some big events over the last four or five weeks and been doing a lot of travelling. At some point it will take its toll and after the highs of last week coming down to earth could mean he struggles to get up for this even with Ryder Cup points on the line. I love the Thunderbear but he’s not me this week.
Alexander Bjork carries plenty of decent pedigree with him and he is the second favourite here at 20/1. He won in China earlier in the season so he is a worthy second favourite although expectation in front of his home fans could be something that is new for him. If he can handle the expectation there is no reason why he shouldn’t be there or thereabouts.
Martin Kaymer and Joakim Lagergren are the join 25/1 third favourites. If Kaymer was anything like his best form he could lead all of these a merry dance but he is 25/1 because he isn’t playing much like his usual self. Lagergren has the same battle with expectation that Bjork has and like him if he can handle that he could easily go well.
Thomas Detry is slightly bigger at 28/1. Even in this field 28/1 is probably the lowest I would want to play someone who is yet to win at this level. He is extremely talented and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he comes through here but for all his talent he only has one top 10 this season so he is pretty expensive to follow. With that in mind I can’t part with my own dosh on him. It is 30/1 bar.
[the_ad_group id=”3624″]
Main Bets
I’m reluctant to get too involved with Swedish players this week given the expectation that is on their shoulders but it makes sense to take Marcus Kinhult because he will have given himself plenty of pressure here as he lives close to the course and would have targeted the week when the schedule was announced. I don’t necessarily mind the pressure on him because he has performed well in some big tournaments this season. He was third in Qatar and just outside the top 10 at Wentworth which are big events and he probably should have won in France before some top class talent came at him. That won’t be happening here so given his familiarity with the course he’s an obvious pick in many ways.
Soren Kjeldsen might not bomb it all over the place but he has shown plenty of times that he doesn’t need to smack it miles to be competitive. One thing I like about the Dane this week is that he ranks in the top 25 in par three scoring and with five of those on the course that is certainly no bad thing. If Kjeldsen gets in the mix we know he has the game to get the job done and the undulating nature of this track should suit him too. I think he’s a big price at 33/1.
Outsiders
Another man who ranks well in the par three scoring stakes is Andrea Pavan. He is ranked 14 in that statistic with very few of those ahead of him in that ranking in the field this week so he should be at home on this course. Pavan has been very consistent this season, especially earlier in the campaign before the Rolex Series got going. I would imagine all Italian golfers will take inspiration from what Francesco Molinari is achieving at the minute and will be working hard to emulate him. Pavan has the tools to outrun his price this week.
There is a chance that bombers could have some right fun this week and with that in mind it could be worth chancing that Pedro Oriol enjoys himself. He will be full of confidence after being part of the Spanish side who won at Gleneagles last week and regardless of the field winning and being able to call yourself a European champion will add to confidence. I have this thing about inconsistent players benefitting from match play in the following two or three strokeplay events. In match play you have to attack and go at the flags and when you do that for a week it hangs around for a while. With only one top 25 all season he is 250/1 for a reason but if he’s going to deliver some form it will be this week. I’ll pay to see how he goes.
Tips
Back M.Kinhult to win Nordea Masters (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 31.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back P.Oriol to win Nordea Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 251.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
Back S.Kjeldsen to win Nordea Masters (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Unibet (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back A.Pavan to win Nordea Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Copyright secured by Digiprove © 2018
