The FedEx Cup playoffs begin on the PGA Tour this week with The Northern Trust opening up the final four events of the season. Only 125 players are eligible for this event and only the top 100 in the rankings will go forward to Boston next week.
Dustin Johnson opened the playoffs in fine style last year by winning this tournament and he will defend the title but he’ll do it on a different course. Five men have chosen not to tee it up so we have 120 players on show here in total.
Recent Winners
2017 – Dustin Johnson
2016 – Patrick Reed
2015 – Jason Day
2014 – Hunter Mahan
2013 – Adam Scott
2012 – Nick Watney
2011 – Dustin Johnson
2010 – Matt Kuchar
2009 – Heath Slocum
2008 – Vijay Singh
The Course
We are back at Ridgewood Country Club for the first time since 2014 this week. Hunter Mahan won the tournament four years ago with a whole heap of ball strikers at the head of the leaderboard. Expect no different here either. The rough is pretty penal on this course and there is plenty of it around so fairways and greens with consummate patience are the key to success in New Jersey.
The course is a par 71 which measures 7,385 yards but the air is pretty humid in this part of the world at this time of year so the course won’t play to a full yardage. Accuracy is very much the requirement over length this week. Stick to pure ball strikers who have shown a bit of form with the short stick recently.
The Field
Henrik Stenson, Patrick Rodgers, Rickie Fowler, Rory McIlroy and of course Bud Cauley have all qualified for the tournament but have chosen not to play or in the case of the latter are unable to play. That leaves a top class field of 120 players teeing it up all with the aim of being inside the top 100 at the end of the week.
USPGA champion Brooks Koepka is here as are the other major winners of 2018 in Patrick Reed and Francesco Molinari while the likes of Tommy Fleetwood and Alex Noren will look to spearhead a European challenge. Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson, Justin Rose, Jason Day and Jon Rahm are just some of a host of huge names teeing it up here.
Market Leaders
Dustin Johnson is the 9/1 favourite to make a successful defence of his title this week. Regular readers will know I’m never one for backing defending champions as a rule and I’m not going to change that here at this price against this class of field. I would be surprised if Johnson doesn’t go in before the end of the season but this is probably the event that suits him the least. He’s easy enough to pass over.
Justin Thomas and Jason Day are the 12/1 second favourites to win this tournament. Jason Day is spraying it too skewwhiff off the tee for my liking. The only reason why I don’t like Thomas is his price although I readily accept he is capable of winning any tournament he tees it up in these days. This week though he encounters a few opponents who the same can be said about. Both are too skinny for me.
Brooks Koepka and Tiger Woods come next in the betting at 14/1. Koepka doesn’t seem to be the same player outside the majors these days which would have to rate as a concern while I’m not convinced Woods will keep the ball in play off the tee enough to see off what is a truly top class field over 72 holes here. I’ll pass both of them over.
Justin Rose is an 18/1 shot to win the tournament. He went very well at the USPGA Championship given that he had been experiencing back spasms in the lead up to the tournament. If fully fit and with a reliable putter this test would be right up his street but is he fully fit and does he have a cooperating putter? All will be revealed but I’m not getting involved in guesswork in this field. It is 20/1 bar.
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Main Bets
When I saw that the tournament was coming back to Ridgewood I hoped Francesco Molinari would qualify for it before this course is right up his street. He flushes every club in the bag and is in such good form at the minute it is untrue. The Italian kicks off the playoffs in eighth place so he is well within reach of the top five which if he is in that band come Atlanta he’ll be playing for the big bunce regardless of what anyone else does. This course is absolutely perfect for Molinari and at 22/1 he is my main bet and more.
To be fair the course sets up well for Webb Simpson as well. He is my second main bet although Brandt Snedeker only came out of this position because he won last week. Winning back-to-back rarely happens. Simpson has delivered a few tee-to-green clinics this season and was striking the ball so well at the Wyndham last week. He closed there with a 62 so his confidence must be sky high heading to New Jersey. If he keeps his long game in tip top order and the putter continues to cooperate Simpson could take a massive step towards a lot of cash on Sunday evening.
Outsiders
Three outsiders for me this week although I feel compelled to mention that I was so close to backing the likes of Billy Horschel, Kevin Kisner and Kevin Na. If there are any DFS players reading my teams would certainly include those. As it is my first outsider is Zach Johnson. He is a tee-to-green animal who putts like a dream and on bentgrass greens he is a natural. These fairways and greens will catch a lot of players out but Zach isn’t one of them. At 60/1 he’s a no brainer bet.
You’ve read me note the comment ball striker on numerous occasions in this preview already so anyone who has read my stuff regularly will know what comes next. Yes you guessed it. Kyle Stanley is my second outsider. We all know I’m convinced this guy has a big tournament in him. He nearly got it at Jack’s place and it took the best of Justin Thomas to deny him at Firestone. A major is probably beyond him right now but this isn’t. This course should fit like a glove. I’m on again.
Ryan Moore has shown good form in recent times culminating in a top six finish at the Wyndham. He has also delivered some good performances in the playoffs too. I always like backing Moore at this time of year and I’m going to do so again. He is outside the top 50 in the FedEx ranking so he needs to sprout wings to get to East Lake. This is a wonderful opportunity for him to do that and at a shade under three figures I’ll take him to make the most of the chance on offer on a course that sets up perfectly for him.
Tips
Back F.Molinari to win The Northern Trust (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 23.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back W.Simpson to win The Northern Trust (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back K.Stanley to win The Northern Trust (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 91.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back Z.Johnson to win The Northern Trust (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 61.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-7)
Back R.Moore to win The Northern Trust (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 91.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-7)
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