The European Tour makes a final trip to the continent of Africa for seven months this week when the Trophee Hassan II is played out. After a pretty boring tournament in Spain last week we should get some much better action on a very good golf course this week.
The field might not have headline stars such as Jon Rahm this week but we can be pretty certain that players won’t need to shoot four under for two rounds to make the cut so I’m looking forward to the tournament. Edoardo Molinari will bid to defend his title.
Recent Winners
2017 – Edoardo Molinari
2016 – Jeunghun Wang
2015 – Richie Ramsay
2014 – Alejandro Canizares
2013 – Marcel Siem
2012 – Michael Hoey
2011 – David Horsey
2010 – Rhys Davies
The Course
We are back at the Royal Golf Dar Es Salam for the third time this week. We are yet to see a champion in double figures under par since returning here which highlights how difficult the course was. Renovations have been made to make the greens much larger to give more pin placements which the European Tour website suggests has placed ‘a premium on strategy, approach play, recovery and the short game’.
The course is a par 72 which stretches to 7,557 yards although in the dry air it will not play that long. Judging by this tweet from David Horsey we are looking for someone who is a very good putter this week or players who are going to hit it very close.
Some serious breaks on these new greens in Morocco…you’ll see some interesting and somewhat embarrassing moments I’m sure this week. Condition of the course is superb though. Looking forward to the challenge #TropheeHassanII #TH2CLM #Morocco @europeantour pic.twitter.com/tu98DICFd9
— Dave Horsey (@DaveHorsey) April 18, 2018
That video suggests that scrambling and imagination around the greens this week is going to be massive but we shouldn’t forget that this course is treelined and tight with some severe penalties for missing the fairways. Therefore we want someone who is hitting the ball very sweetly.
The Field
We might lack the big names that will be in some events on the European Tour over the next couple of months but there are some who will be household names and some who will be pushing for Ryder Cup qualification come the time the standings are settled.
Paul Dunne heads the field but Joost Luiten is eyeing up a place on the European side too. Thomas Pieters will want to get back into that tournament as will Andy Sullivan while Alex Levy will want to be representing Europe in his homeland. George Coetzee and Eddie Pepperell have won tournaments recently and will want to go in again.
Market Leaders
Paul Dunne was only edged out in a playoff here 12 months ago so I would suggest he is a worthy favourite at 12/1. His short game is such that he should be at home here and he comes in here in decent form so there isn’t a huge amount not to like about the Irishman. My only concern is that he won’t have carried the expectation of favouritism too often which makes me err on the side of caution.
George Coetzee is 16/1 to win a second tournament of the season. His putting and short game has been in good order for a while which bodes well for him but the concern is whether he will keep it in play as much off the tee. This will be the first time he has teed it up in this tournament at this course which puts me off taking him.
Joost Luiten is the 20/1 third favourite to win this week. He has already won in Oman this season but he has been having issues with his wrist. If he is 100% he is probably the one to beat here but question marks have to be around in terms of his fitness. Alex Levy is a couple of points bigger at 22/1 as is Thomas Pieters. Both are a little wayward off the tee for my liking though.
Pablo Larrazabal has a decent record in this part of the world and he is someone who certainly has the short game to justify odds of 25/1 but whether he can keep competitive enough off the tee is a completely different story. He has a leading chance if he can but I can’t see it. It is 28/1 bar.
[the_ad_group id=”3624″]
Main Bets
I’m going with two main bets this week. The first one is Jorge Campillo who has three top five finishes in his last four events with the one in between a top 30 in the WGC in Mexico we can make that down as a decent effort too. Campillo is accurate off the tee and one of the best putters on tour and his short game is good too as you would expect from a Spaniard. He was in the top 20 here last year but he running much hotter right now. I think he’s a leading player this week.
Seungsu Han has some decent form behind him too. He has a couple of top fives in his last five outings and a couple more in and around the top 20 and on each occasion he has hit a lot of fairways, scrambled and putted well so he should be a leading contender this week. He has had a top five in Europe and on the PGA Tour in this run so he can compete at this level for sure. The scoring was probably a little hot for him last week but this should play more to his liking and I’m happy to take my chances with the American here.
Outsiders
According to the new European Tour stats department Robert Rock is fourth on strokes gained putting and with the three ahead of him in that list not teeing it up here that is a good place to start from. Rock has a decent record on this course too with a top 10 and a top five finish and given that he isn’t someone who is terribly wayward off the tee I expect a decent week. He’ll leapfrog many in the field on the greens so it is worth paying to see just how many he passes.
Alejandro Canizares was just outside the top 10 in his home open last week but on the greens he was found wanting. That is very much an anomaly though because he is usually stronger than most on the greens but we should say the putting surfaces last week were awful. Assuming that hasn’t damaged the confidence with the short stick I expect the 2014 winner to contend strongly here. He won on a different course but this one should be up his street too so I like the Spaniard this week.
This feels like a week where a real shot in the dark could go well. Edoardo Molinari would certainly have been that last year and to be honest if you are straight and can putt you’ve probably every chance. David Howell fits that criteria and while you have to go back five years for his last win, Molinari was no more proficient at getting into the winners circle. Howell is comfortably in the top 10 of strokes gained putting from those teeing it up this week and as some struggle on the dancefloors he could gallop past uncomfortable runners into a decent finish.
Tips
Back J.Campillo to win Trophee Hassan II (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Unibet (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back S.Han to win Trophee Hassan II (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back R.Rock to win Trophee Hassan II (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back D.Howell to win Trophee Hassan II (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 301.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back A.Canizares to win Trophee Hassan II (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 91.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-6)
Copyright secured by Digiprove © 2018
