The final European Tour event in Asia for six months takes place this week when the Volvo China Open is played for. This co-sanctioned competition will be a complete contrast to the tough, high scoring event in Morocco last week but based on previous renewals it should be no less competitive.
Alexander Levy outshot the field here last year and he bids to defend his title this week which would give him back-to-back successes on the Tour. A pretty good cast list will be taking him on though it must be said.
Recent Winners
2017 – Alex Levy
2016 – Haotong Li
2015 – Ashun Wu
2014 – Alex Levy
2013 – Brett Rumford
2012 – Branden Grace
2011 – Nicolas Colsaerts
2010 – Y E Yang
2009 – Scott Strange
2008 – Damien McGrane
The Course
For the third year in a row it is the Topwin Golf and Country Club that is the tournament host this week. -22 and -17 have been the winning scores and with a number of par 4s that are attackable with a strong drive this is a week where the bigger hitters and birdie makers have their moment in the sun.
The course is a par 72 and measures 7,261 yards. The Great Wall of China overlooks sections of it so the views are stunning which is probably why we have some good players on show here. The majority of the fairways are quite wide here but there is water in play on most of the holes. The greens are large and undulating so scrambling will be a key requirement this week.
The Field
As well as the defending champion and last week’s winner Alex Levy we have plenty of other household names teeing it up this week such as Joost Luiten, Bernd Wiesberger, Paul Dunne and Thorbjorn Olesen while three of Asia’s finest are here too in Kiradech Aphibarnrat, Haotong Li and Shubhankar Sharma.
As well as cheering Li on the home crowds will also be entertained by Ashun Wu among others. Pablo Larrazabal, Alvaro Quiros, Nicolas Colsaerts and Gavin Green are other popular players who are on show this week.
Market Leaders
Alex Levy is the 11/1 favourite to win the tournament this week but as the defending champion and having won last week there will be plenty of requests for his time in the lead up to the tournament which I never think is ideal. That said he is comfortably the class act of this field and I wouldn’t be overly surprised if he goes in again. Value is tight though it must be said.
Haotong Li is next in the betting at 16/1 and a case can certainly be made for him, as it can be of Kiradech Aphibarnrat who is the same price. Li has already won the Dubai Desert Classic this term and while he form has been patchy since then he won here in 2016 and can’t be discounted. Aphibarnrat has been going along nicely in recent times too but whether I’m keen on backing him at this sort of price yet I’m unsure.
Bernd Wiesberger should be nicely suited by this test but he hasn’t had a top 10 since the HSBC Champions event in October which has to be a concern. Joost Luiten is in the sort of form to justify being 20/1 but I sense this course doesn’t suit the strengths of his game which would be a worry.
Paul Dunne is 22/1 to win a second European Tour event. A lot of judges thought he was a genuine contender last week but he never got going at all. If he can find the form he carried with him to Morocco then he would be a leading chance too but like Luiten, this course may not play to his strengths. It is 25/1 bar.
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Main Bets
Shubhankar Sharma has missed his last three cuts but they were all in America and it might just be that the PGA Tour is a step up too far for him at this stage of his career but in Europe he has performed to a high level. He won in Malaysia when closing out with a 62 in the final round having previously won in Joburg before that and he has top 10s in Hong Kong and India, the latter I’m sure he would have done better if the trip from Mexico hadn’t caught up with him. Sharma won with 23 under in Joburg and 21 under in Malaysia so this low scoring event is right up his street. At 33/1 he is my first main bet.
I’m also going to go with Callum Shinkwin who is showing signs of a return to form and having backed him a few times last season I’ve been waiting for a chance to get involved this term too. Shinkwin has a couple of top 20 finishes in his last three events and as a bomber off the tee he should be able to take advantage of plenty of the holes. He has begun to scramble well and putt well and that combination should give him a good chance this week.
Outsiders
Sihwan Kim is an interesting proposition this week. He was third in India earlier in the season and just last week he was fourth in the Japan Tour event where his statistics were pretty solid. In India he was the second best scrambler in the field and I would say the field there was stronger than it is here. Kim can certainly get it out there off the tee and in four of the last 10 events he’s played in he’s been in the top five for greens hit. He’ll be used to Asian conditions so he should be fine on the greens and so at 100/1 he’s well worth an investment.
Another who could be worth a little dabble is Marc Warren. Warren isn’t massively long off the tee but he can get it out there where he needs to. His iron play and putting is usually of a very good standard though so there is no reason why he can’t score nicely this week. He was fifth in a good field in Spain two weeks ago in a low scoring event which bodes well here. He’s another who is worth chancing at three figures.
This sort of set up usually brings the best out of Nino Bertasio too. He was fifth in Malaysia earlier in the campaign and went well in Italy and Portugal towards the end of last season as well. If you just look at the form you probably wouldn’t back him but he’s played in a few events recently that won’t have suited him. This one should so I’ll chance him accordingly.
Tips
Back S.Sharma to win Volvo China Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back C.Shinkwin to win Volvo China Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back S.Kim to win Volvo China Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back N.Bertasio to win Volvo China Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
Back M.Warren to win Volvo China Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
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