It is the final week of the regular season on the PGA Tour this week with the Wyndham Championship taking place. This is very much a tournament within a tournament with those outside the top 125 players in the FedEx Cup rankings looking to make it in and those inside looking to stay there.
At the end of the week those who are not inside the top 125 and have no exemptions will lose their playing rights. The top 125 go on to the first play-off event next week. None of that will trouble Henrik Stenson who defends the title here.
Recent Winners
2017 – Henrik Stenson
2016 – Si-Woo Kim
2015 – Davis Love III
2014 – Camilo Villegas
2013 – Patrick Reed
2012 – Sergio Garcia
2011 – Webb Simpson
2010 – Arjun Atwal
2009 – Ryan Moore
2008 – Carl Pettersson
The Ground
We are at the Sedgefield Country Club once again this week. The course remains a par 70 which measures 7,127 yards and with rain forecast over the course of the tournament it may end up playing to a full yardage.
Generally this is a fairly easy test for the players involved ahead of the tough stuff which begins next week. The only real difficulty of this course is the rough around the greens which can make scrambling difficult but for those who find the fairways and the dancefloors this is not the toughest test in the world.
The Field
This tournament comes hot on the heels of two big tournaments and ahead of the final four tournaments of the season so only those who need some practice, have commitments or who need to push for their places in the top 125 of the FedEx rankings will be teeing it up this week.
The Players champion Webb Simpson is the headline attraction but Hideki Matsuyama and the defending champion Henrik Stenson also make for good challengers. Masters champion Sergio Garcia is also in the field and needs a good week if he is to avoid missing out on the play-offs. Graeme McDowell is another one who must have a good tournament.
Market Leaders
Given the correlation between winners of The Players Championship and this tournament it stands to reason that Webb Simpson is the 11/1 favourite to win the event. He lapped the field at Sawgrass and he has a fantastic record in this tournament, He won it in 2011 and has four other top 10 finishes. He is also excellent from tee to green so he should be well suited by this challenge once again. He looks the man to beat but he’s no better than a fair price.
Hideki Matsuyama is a 16/1 poke to win the tournament and is a joint second favourite alongside the defending champion Henrik Stenson. Stenson has been complaining of injury in recent times and his form hasn’t been the greatest so he is an easy swerve and in fairness Matsuyama isn’t pulling up any trees so he is pretty easy to ignore.
Rafael Cabrera Bello is a surprise fourth favourite. On form he probably merits his position in the market but whether he is yet a 22/1 shot for a fully flown PGA Tour event I have my doubts. He will want a good week though for Ryder Cup purposes as much as anything else and with that in mind he may well go strong but he doesn’t really interest me in truth.
Shane Lowry is running out of his exemption on the PGA Tour and needs a huge week to make it into the top 125 to get his card for next season. He has picked up his form in recent times and is capable of a decent week here but under the pressure of having to go well 25/1 is a little short. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in the mix but I prefer to back those with less on their shoulders. It is 28/1 bar.
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Main Bets
Joaquin Niemann now has official privileges on the PGA Tour which is something many of his opponents are chasing this week. I happen to think he has every chance of a big result here too. He is second in proximity and inside the top 10 for birdies or better which are important statistics here. If his tee to green game can remain as strong as it has been so far this season he can head into the play-offs with a very good finish, potentially even his first win.
Harold Varner III has caught fire in recent times and he was in the top 10 here last year so everything appears to be falling in place at the right time for him. The American has a couple of top six finishes and another top 20 in his last three tournaments and having had last week off he should be nicely refreshed for another strong tilt at this title. Varner III is a birdie machine when he gets going and if he can keep the bogeys off the card he’ll be in the mix once again.
Outsiders
Chris Kirk is seventh in proximity to the hole this season which means he is going to get an awful lot of chances to make birdies this week. He sits fifth on tour in total birdies averaging well over three per round and with a fairly decent record heading into this tournament I certainly think he is someone who can outrun the 66/1 quotes on him assuming his putter stays as hot as we are used to.
Kevin Tway has shown some promise in recent weeks despite the disappointment of the final round in Canada but he has bounced back from that and I believe he is ready for a real big breakthrough and if and when that comes I would expect it to be in a low scoring event like this. Only four men on the Tour have made more birdies than Tway this season and only one of them is in the field this week. At 80/1 Tway seems like good value to me.
Tips
Back J.Niemann to win Wyndham Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 31.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back C.Kirk to win Wyndham Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
Back H.Varner III to win Wyndham Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back K.Tway to win Wyndham Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Unibet (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
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