The European Tour moves from Germany to the wonderful Valderrama track for the Andalucia Masters this week, one of the toughest tests on the circuit and at a time of the year that should make for a brilliant event.
Sergio Garcia won the tournament he hosts for the second year in a row last season and he will go in search of a hat-trick of successes here. A fair field has been assembled despite the time of the year so we should get a good event on this iconic course.
Recent Winners
2018 – Sergio Garcia
2017 – Sergio Garcia
The Course
The Real Club Valderrama once again hosts some of Europe’s finest this week. The tournament is being played much earlier in the year this season so the rough is likely to be more consistent, especially round the greens, so chipping is going to be tough. Given that these greens are among the smallest on the European Tour you need to be playing this course from the short grass if at all possible.
The track is a par 71 which measures 7,001 yards so it isn’t long but it is certainly demanding. There are three par 5s on the course which are the scoring holes and the rest is very much survival. We are looking for pure ball strikers on these undulating fairways and ones which can putt on greens which might be small but are full of undulations.
The Field
Sergio Garcia is the undoubted headliner in the field but he has managed to attract his fellow Spanish superstar Jon Rahm for a hit this week. The two men who competed in the play-off for the BMW International Open last week are also here too in Matthew Fitzpatrick and Andrea Pavan while Joost Luiten also has a tee time for this tournament.
The younger brigade of Matthias Schwab, Thomas Detry and Marcus Kinhult are mixed in with some seasoned campaigners such as Ross Fisher, Victor Dubuisson and Pablo Larrazabal. Andrew Johnston has previously won around here and he is in the field once again this week in what has the makings of a great event.
Market Leaders
As you would expect having won here for the past two years, Sergio Garcia is a 13/2 favourite. He knows every inch of this track but whether his game is in the sort of shape it needs to be to tame this beast is my big concern. I think back to the US Open a couple of weeks ago when he admitted his game is not in good shape. This place has found out the best in the world hitting it well let alone someone who isn’t going so good. For that reason I can’t be having Sergio this week.
Jon Rahm is 7/1 to land the title this week. On the face of it you wouldn’t think this would be the course for a power bomber but actually he has shown he can compete on tough tracks so it will be interesting to see what he can offer over the course of these four days. I wouldn’t necessarily rule him out of this tournament but taking 7/1 on anyone on a track of this difficulty where a big number is just around the corner for anyone.
Matt Fitzpatrick will go into the week as the 10/1 third favourite to go one better than he did in Germany last week. His credentials here are pretty obvious with his tee to green prowess the clear strength of his game. He has played a fair bit of golf in recent times which is one concern I have and there isn’t a whole lot of juice in the price to truly inspire me. He is perfectly good enough to win here but at 10/1 I can let him win I think.
Joost Luiten comes into the week as the 20/1 fourth favourite. He has a liking for this place and the profile to fit it as well so there is a real case to be made for him as he looks for a first title since returning from his wrist injury which kept him out for a period of time over the last 12 months. It is 30/1 bar the named quartet which probably highlights just how competitive this event is.
Main Bet
It is the aforementioned Joost Luiten who makes up my only outright bet in this tournament. He is almost a no brainer pick with a record here that sees him having finishes of 5-MC-2-2-11 and given his tee to green strength and his relatively sharp short game none of that surprises me. Luiten is second in strokes gained from tee to green on the entire European Tour which is a massive part of the game this week. He isn’t the worst putter and scrambler in the world and seems to be able to read these greens based on his previous finishes here. Luiten has three top 10s on the year and a T12 in Oman when he was defending the title so he’s in good nick and looks a leading bet here at 18/1 with the extra place terms.
Outsiders
Soren Kjeldsen is another who has a decent record round here and as with Luiten that is no surprise because the foundation of the Dane’s game is from tee to green. At his pomp rarely does he miss a fairway or a green and in recent times he has gotten a lot better in the scrambling department. Kjeldsen was a runner up here in 2010 and fourth again a three years ago when the Open de Espana was here when over par won. One of his career wins came in Spain so he is comfortable with the climate and things and I expect a decent run from him here.
Kurt Kitayama has been in decent touch this season having won twice and been competitive on a number of other occasions and while the lack of a course spin is a clear concern, I’m prepared to overwrite that given that he’s hitting the ball so well. The American was one of the better players from tee to green last week but couldn’t hole a thing on the greens. We know from his win in Mauritius that he can putt on undulating surfaces though so he should be capable of performing well here.
Fabrizio Zanotti should have a better record around Valderrama than he does because his tee to green game is often so strong. That remains the case this season where he currently ranks ninth on Tour in strokes gained tee to green. That has to be a defining thing if he can play to that standard here. There is no reason why he can’t score on this track and after a couple of decent efforts earlier in the year I’ll pay to see if he can use that tee to green nous to his advantage here.
Finally the long game of Paul Peterson caught my eye in Germany last week and if he can transfer that to this week there is no reason why he can’t give us a proper run at a massive price. He finished in the top 20 here last year so we know that he can play the track and as others struggle from tee to green he can make u really significant ground. He sits third in fairways hit this term and is ranked 33 in GIR. Those stats make me think he’ll give us a good run.
Tips
Back J.Luiten to win Andalucia Masters (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 19.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back S.Kjeldsen to win Andalucia Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-7)
Back P.Peterson to win Andalucia Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 226.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
Back K.Kitayama to win Andalucia Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 91.00 with 888sport (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back F.Zanotti to win Andalucia Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
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