Ahead of the USPGA Championship next week, the PGA Tour heads back to Texas this week for the AT&T Byron Nelson, a fairly popular stop off on the Tour albeit one which might have lost some of its appeal giving the chance in the calendar.
Aaron Wise will not care about when the tournament is played as it is he who will defend the title but there is a decent enough field going against him, although perhaps not quite as strong as what would have gone before.
Recent Winners
2018 – Aaron Wise
2017 – Billy Horschel
2016 – Sergio Garcia
2015 – Steven Bowditch
2014 – Brendon Todd
2013 – Bae Sang-moon
2012 – Jason Dufner
2011 – Keegan Bradley
2010 – Jason Day
2009 – Rory Sabbatini
The Course
For the second year we are at the Trinity Forest Golf Club this week. The Dallas track is very much like a links course with severe undulations on the fairways and enormous greens which need to be hit in the right places if players are to score low which will be the requirement this year given the heavy rains that have been in the area ahead of the tournament.
The course is a par 71 which measures 7,371 yards and it is likely to play to that full yardage. The fairways here are massive so this becomes a second shot and putting contest. The only defence for the course this week is going to be the wind but we are in Texas so we should never rule out the chance for it to blow.
The Field
In years gone by this would have had a very strong field but with the big event in New York next week a number of names who would ordinarily be here are missing out. That leaves the man who defends the title next week as the headline attraction here. That is Brooks Koepka while defending champion Aaron Wise is also here.
The home crowds will be hoping that Jordan Spieth can find some form this week while the runner up from last year Marc Leishman is here looking to go one better. Hideki Matsuyama brings a top class Asian feel to proceedings while former major champions Patrick Reed and Henrik Stenson will be looking for a boost ahead of next week.
Market Leaders
Brooks Koepka tees off as a warm 15/2 favourite but whether he’s here to win or just to prepare for next week would be the big question. His form in the regular PGA Tour events is nothing like as good as it is in the majors which is a real concern but he has shown in the past that he can go well on links type courses so that is in his favour. He’s too short for me though it has to be said.
Hideki Matsuyama comes next in the betting at 16/1. He is an extremely solid player but he doesn’t necessarily jump off my page as the most likely winner. His form this year has been pretty decent to be fair albeit without the win so this drop in class could well be his week but he just looks a little tight at the prices if anything so I’ll look elsewhere.
Jordan Spieth is the third favourite at 22/1. He’ll be cheered on by home crowds this week and will know the conditions very well so really it is all about what shape his game is in. He’ll come good again eventually but the signs of improvement that were there earlier in the year have fallen away again so while he is definitely good enough to win this I’ll let him do so without my money at these prices.
Aaron Wise and Marc Leishman, the two men who played out the finish here last year, go off as 25/1 shots to either defend the title or go one better. I’ll be interested to see how he goes defending a title for the first time. Leishman is not in the best of form at the present time but he has brilliant credentials to deal with links tracks and shouldn’t be discounted. It is 28/1 bar.
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Main Bets
I was on Keith Mitchell here last year in his rookie season and he placed for me and given that he has won since then and shown good form either side of that it makes perfect sense to be on him again. He is long off the tee which will suit the soft conditions here and his iron play and putting ability was what won The Honda Classic for him. He has shown good form for a while now and a second title in this quality of field should be well within his compass.
Branden Grace should be nicely suited to the test this week too. He might be out of form at the minute but it won’t take a whole lot to fire him back into form and a course where it is difficult to miss the fairways and with huge greens should be the place where it comes back. He is another who placed for us here last year and while others might be struggling in the wind, the South African will relish the conditions. He looks a leading chance to me in this company.
Outsiders
I’m surprised that we can get 60/1 on Texas local Ryan Palmer so soon after he won the Zurich Classic alongside Jon Rahm. If that didn’t give him confidence then nothing will and it showed that he is capable of scoring low. Palmer’s off course issues were well documented but they look to be in the past now and I’m expecting him to kick on now he has all his playing rights and everything else sorted courtesy of that win. He’s local, loves the windy conditions and is in good form so he ticks every box here.
I’m also surprised that Alex Noren is near enough the same price as Palmer. This track should really suit Noren. He hasn’t had a year to remember so far but he is a natural in links conditions and his faltering driver isn’t likely to hamper him too much this week. Whenever there is a second shot golf course with big greens I like having Noren on my side. He has won at The Grove and Le Golf National in Europe and they are similar tests to this one. We are taken a chance on his confidence given his lack of recent form but we’re getting double the price as a result. I’ll pay to see how he goes.
Beau Hossler has not had the 2019 that he would have liked after a breakthrough year in 2018 so this week could well have come at the right time. He is a member of this course so should know every inch of it which can be a real advantage given that this is only the second time the track has been used. Hossler hasn’t been in great form this year but his best work tends to come in Texas and given his familiarity with the track I’ll pay to see how far his three figure price takes us.
Tips
Back K.Mitchell to win AT&T Byron Nelson (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back R.Palmer to win AT&T Byron Nelson (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 61.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
Back B.Grace to win AT&T Byron Nelson (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-7)
Back A.Noren to win AT&T Byron Nelson (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
Back B.Hossler to win AT&T Byron Nelson (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
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