We are closing in on the end of the Australian Open and on Thursday we will see both women’s semi-finals being played on out the Rod Laver Arena as well as the opening last four clash in the men’s draw on a tasty looking day of action.
We saw a huge shock in the women’s draw on Wednesday and the likes of Naomi Osaka and Petra Kvitova will aim to avoid being the latest in the day session on Thursday before the stage is set for Rafael Nadal in the evening.
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Day Session
Petra Kvitova vs Danielle Collins
The action begins with the semi-final from the bottom half as Petra Kvitova takes on Danielle Collins for the second time in 2019 after the pair met in an epic contest in Brisbane and if this one is half as good as that it will be a great start to the day.
This Collins fairy tale doesn’t look like it is ready to end judging by her fine win over Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in the previous round but we should acknowledge that this is the first time she has been in a Grand Slam quarter final. She would have been up against it here anyway but she very much is because Kvitova looks in supreme form at the minute.
I actually think the Czech ace will be far too good for the inexperienced American in this one but there is just no value in any of the lines or markets to justify a bet on the contest. I might have a look and hope Collins starts well enough to make 2-0 an attractive price but I’m not betting before the off.
Naomi Osaka vs Karolina Pliskova
The second semi-final on the women’s side of things looked like being a repeat of the US Open final but Karolina Pliskova came from the clouds to dump Serena Williams out in the quarter final and it is her that will clash with Flushing Meadows winner Naomi Osaka in this last four clash.
Osaka was my pick for this tournament before a ball was struck in the tournament and while I’m nervous for her here, it has nothing to do with the quality of her play or anything like that. My concern comes in the form of Pliskova who could be free of all the shackles and completely free rolling now having come from 5-1 down in the deciding set to Serena and dodging four match points.
Assuming that doesn’t happen and this is a proper contest you’ve got to like the Japanese star. She really is a star and if we think back to New York she put the afterburners down and some from here on in. She beat both Madison Keys and Serena 62 64 and was relentless on both occasions. I hope she is like that here as I’m already on her at 7/1 having taken her to win the tournament at 14/1 before it began. That is more than enough interest for me.
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Night Session
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Rafael Nadal
The night session is beautifully set up as the first of the men’s semi-finals will be played out on Rod Laver Arena when the exciting Greek star Stefanos Tsitsipas goes up against the all-time legend that is Rafael Nadal for a place in Sunday’s final.
Tsitsipas has been a real star of this tournament and he showcased his quality when he went again after his win over Roger Federer to take care of Roberto Bautista Agut in the quarter final. That tells us he has something about him. The Greek goes up a few notches in Spanish ability here but he will surely take the game to Nadal and could be the one to really test the Mallorcan.
Nadal has been on easy street in this tournament. He hasn’t dropped a set, has oozed class and is a massive favourite to make another major final but sometimes when you’ve had it easy it can be hard to turn it on when you are put under pressure. Nadal is an experienced cookie but I don’t see him having this all his own way even though he is a warm favourite. I expect Nadal to come through here but I don’t see him winning this in straight sets. Tsitsipas has brought too much to the event to go without a fight. He’s got the game to get after Nadal, perhaps not beat him, but certainly trouble him. I’ll take over 3.5 sets.
Tips
Back S.Tsitsipas vs R.Nadal – Over 3.5 sets for a 4/10 stake at 2.00 with Bet365
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