The biggest tournament on the European Tour so far this season comes to an end on Sunday when the final round of the BMW PGA Championship is played out on the West Course at Wentworth with some huge money up for grabs.
As ever with these Rolex Series events every place matters to the strength of the cheque so everyone teeing it up on Sunday will be incentivised by the potential earning power in front of them on the final day.
Round 3 Recap
At the end of a very entertaining moving day we have joint leaders of the tournament. They are Danny Willett and Jon Rahm who sit on top of the leaderboard on 15 under par. They are three shots ahead of their nearest challengers. They are Justin Rose, Christiaan Bezuidenhout and Shubhankar Sharma. Two men sit five behind the leading pair on 10 under. They are Richie Ramsay and Rafa Cabrera Bello with Patrick Reed another shot back on nine under and then there is a high class group of players on eight under. There is a history of the winner coming from behind on the final day so none of those off the pace should give up hope just yet.
Due to the second round not finishing on Friday there were no third round bets on Saturday but given the bad luck we’ve had this week it might not have been a bad thing to have a day off. We’ll attack Sunday with the aim of recovering some of the losses as best we can.
Sunday Betting
I was hoping that we could get a without Rahm and Willett market because although players have a habit of coming from behind in this tournament you’ve got to think that those two are of sufficient enough quality that one of them is going to hang on and get the job done if not power clear. The caveat to that though is that the forecast is pretty foul actually for Sunday so there is half a chance that a score gets posted from a mile back and it hangs on.
I think it is probably a market to play in running once we’ve seen those first four holes played out. Someone who is off to a hot start should still be a decent enough price and with the TV coverage of the highest level this week the whole story should be shown for us to form our opinions on what is happening. This might be a week where much like Augusta, the tournament begins on the back nine on Sunday.
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Sunday 2 Balls
For the only time this week the groups out on the golf course are in pairs on Sunday with the leading pair of Jon Rahm and Danny Willett going off at 13.20 BST and Justin Rose and Shubhankar Sharma out 10 minutes before then. There are a couple of very appealing groups just behind the leaders with Beef Johnston and Francesco Molinari together while Paul Casey and Billy Horschel are also another pairing. Just over an hour before the leaders tee off Henrik Stenson and Rory McIlroy go out in the pick of the two balls out onto the course. There’s one bet I like on Sunday.
Billy Horschel vs Paul Casey
Match tees off at 12.20 BST
Two men who begin the day seven shots off the lead are Billy Horschel and Paul Casey and they form an interesting two ball on Sunday afternoon, not least to see if either of them harbour genuine hopes of winning the title or are happy to bank the cash and the ranking points.
If he could have holed anything at all this week Casey may well be up challenging the leaders but he just hasn’t rolled his rock at all and I wonder if that is going to be an issue in the windier and wet conditions that this final round is likely to be played in. Horschel has putted very nicely this week. He had a bad ball striking day by his standards on the opening day but has been pretty good since then and will be looking to finish as high as possible. Horschel’s all-round game has looked in the better condition to me so I’ll have a go at him at a huge price here.
Tips
WON – Back B.Horschel to beat P.Casey for a 3/10 stake at 2.70 with Betfair
Back him here:
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