It is the final day of the Ebor Festival from York on Saturday where one of the richest horse races in the world takes place and is the central focus of all the attention. We have bets in the big race, one from the supporting card and we’ve also cast out net to Goodwood as well to complete our Saturday betting portfolio.
3.40 York: Ebor Handicap
Preview
The feature race of the week in the Ebor, the richest handicap in Europe with a guaranteed £1M in prize money on offer.
This is a Class 2 handicap over 1 mile 6 furlongs and it’s attracted a very high class field, with a maximum of 22 lining up. Half of this year’s field are rated 110+ and the cut is at 105; to put that into some context, only 2 of the last 10 winners rated 105+ (106-rated winner who was 2nd highest rated in the field and last year’s winner off 109, the 3rd highest rated runner 12 months ago).
It’s interesting to look at the draw here as those drawn wide are arguably at an advantage based on past runnings with 8 of the last 10 winners drawn in stalls 15 or higher. One of the favourites, Kings Advice, has a high draw in 19. This progressive sort started the season off a mark of 71 but, having won 8 of his 9 starts, is now rated 112. This is his toughest assignment to date but he does keep pulling out more; it’s a question of when this improvement will stall.
Contenders
Withhold is the top weight and he’s incredibly lightly rated having seen the track just 5 times in 2 years. In that time, however, he’s won 3 big handicaps; the Cesarewitch in 2017, the Northumberland Plate in 2018 and the Marsh Cup this year. He’s hard to rule out but note that all those wins came at 2 miles or further. He’ll need to show he has the pace to land this.
Raheen House is an interesting one and would be the selection if you only looked at his claim to fame; he’s one of only two horses to have beaten the great Enable, but that was two and a half years ago! More recently, he’s been placed in 2 races here where he was 2nd in a Listed race on rain softened ground before being edged out by a short head into 3rd behind one of today’s rivals Red Verdon. The winner that day is only 1lb worse off but is being offered at odds of 28/1 whilst Raheen House is just 8/1. Value wise, I can’t be having William Haggas’ horse.
Betting
Of the fancied runners, 3 have been given draws in stalls 15 or above. Kings Advice, already mentioned, is one and the other 2 make up our selections for the race.
Baghdad is drawn in 18 and is a winner of 4 of 9 turf starts. An improving 4 year old, he’s won all 4 handicaps he’s contested. He won last year’s King George V Handicap at Royal Ascot off 90 and has done the Royal Ascot double after winning this year’s Duke Of Edinburgh off 104. He’s seen his mark rise to 109 for today’s race. Since winning at the Royal meeting, he’s not been as good since but that’s been in pattern company and in small fields; it’s worth noting he’s 3 wins from 3 in fields of 16 runners or more. Today sees him step up in trip having been campaigned almost exclusively at a mile and a half but, assuming he handles it (and he should), he will surely be in the mix, with the added bonus of knowing some bookies are paying 7 or 8 places.
You cannot back Baghdad without backing Ben Vrackie. These two filled the first 2 spots in the Duke Of Edinburgh with the runner up missing out by an ever diminishing short head after missing the break. He’s also 1lb better off with the winner. Drawn in 22, his claims are obvious on that Ascot run although he wasn’t as good next time out when stepped up to 14 furlongs at Newmarket. Connections have said that race came too soon and should be ignored, they expect we’ll see a different horse today. Dettori takes the ride for John Gosden and the pair have combined for 5 wins from 8 runners in the past fortnight, with another being edged out into 2nd by a head. Interestingly, Frankie rode the runner up last year in Weekender who goes again this time off 1lb lower but he’s decided to switch to this one. Is that a pointer? 8/1 looks a very fair each way price.
Tips
Back Baghdad (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 10.00 Skybet BOG (⅕ odds 1-8)
PLACED – Back Ben Vrackie (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 9.00 Skybet BOG (⅕ odds 1-8)
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4.45 York: Sky Bet Handicap
Preview
Another Class 2 handicap, this time there’s a field of 17 runners over 10 furlongs.
The favourite comes out of the lowest stall and hails from the Dettori/Gosden combo. Forest Of Dean is the horse and he’s a 3 year old that’s won 3 of his 5 starts this season. He won very well at Goodwood last time out but has been raised 7lbs for that effort. He’s hard to dismiss but he’s just 5/2 in the betting and is taking on older horses for the first time.
Tudor City comes over from Ireland, from the shrewd Tony Martin yard, and he won the Galway Hurdle on his last start. However, he looks a much better hurdler than flat horse and appears poor value.
The interesting piece of past form comes from a similar handicap at Glorious Goodwood where today’s top weight, Fayez, prevailed. Two of today’s rivals were in behind. Fayez has won 4 times this season but is now on a career high mark. Also he’s never shown his best at York. In 6th that day was Johnny Drama, the mount of Silvestre De Sousa. He was just over 3 lengths back and ran well enough. This is his 2nd start for the yard.
Betting
Preference, however, is for Beringer who’s been somewhat unlucky this season. He started up by finished 3rd in the Lincoln behind Auxerre and since then has done well, being unlucky not to win more than once. He was 5th in the race won by Fayez, 2 lengths behind the winner, but was twice blocked at crucial stages and count himself unlucky. Previous to that, he was beaten a short head off a 1lb lower mark at Sandown. The ground could be key to his chances; on ground with firm in the description (which he will surely get today), he’s won 3 and been 2nd 3 times whilst he’s 1 win and 1 second from 10 starts on good or easier ground. He looks a solid each way selection in an open race.
Tips
Back Beringer (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 10.00 William Hill BOG (¼ odds 1-4)
Back it here:
3.15 Goodwood: Ladbrokes Bet 5 Get 20 Handicap
Preview
Away from York, there’s a good looking 12 runner 7 furlong handicap.
What’s interesting here is that the top 2 are rated 108 and 105 but then there’s a 7lb gap back to the next horse in the handicap, rated 98. It’s not often you see that nowadays and it’s these types of races where class often tells.
But, let’s start with the lower rated horses especially as the current favourite comes from here. 97 rated Gossiping is at the head of affairs having won by 5 lengths at Epsom 2 starts ago off a mark 10lb lower. Last time out, he was 7th in a hot handicap from a wider draw but I’m not convinced we should be upgrading that performance too much on account of where he was drawn.
Salute The Soldier has been 2nd on 3 of this 5 runs this terms but that has again seen his mark rise about 95 (the mark for those 3 runner up places). He’s also off a career high mark of 98 today The top weight is Tabarrak, a high class horse who thrives over 7 furlongs. This is his first time in a handicap for ages and I’m a little worried by his most recent form.
Betting
Instead I’m siding with the 2nd top weight, the 105-rated Oh This Is Us. He’s a winner of 9 of his 42 starts on turf but you can narrow that by looking at his optimum trip, today’s distance of 7 furlongs. He’s won 7 of 17 over this trip and just 2 of 25 over further. His last handicap run was just under a year ago and he won that, over this trip at Chester off a 3lb higher mark of 108. He’s been seen 7 times on turf this term and is winless but he’s only run once this trip when 2nd in a Listed event where he gave 5lbs to the winner who’s now rated 102. The trip and ground are both ideal, he’s won over course and distance and has a nice low draw in 2 so has to be a must for any shortlist.
Tips
Back Oh This Is Us (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 7.00 BetVictor BOG (¼ odds 1-3)
Back it here:
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