Just over two weeks after Rory McIlroy waltzed off with the FedEx Cup and a cool $15 million the new PGA Tour season begins, as the first event of the 2019-20 campaign gets underway on Thursday when a number of Tour stars and Korn Ferry graduates tee it up in the Greenbrier Classic.
This tournament used to have a summer slot but was a victim of the change to accommodate the FedEx play-offs earlier in the year therefore it has been moved to the season opener. Kevin Na won the event in 2018 and he’ll be out to make a successful defence here.
Recent Winners
2018 – Kevin Na
2017 – Xander Schauffele
2016 – No Tournament
2015 – Danny Lee
2014 – Angel Cabrera
2013 – Jonas Blixt
2012 – Ted Potter Jr
2011 – Scott Stallings
2010 – Stuart Appleby
The Course
The time of year the tournament is played might have changed but the host course hasn’t. That means we are back at The Old White TPC once again this week. The course is one of the longer par 70s on the PGA Tour, stretching to 7,292 yards so you do need to give it a bit of a biff this week, especially with some rain forecast round the event, although we are at altitude so the ball does fly a little further.
This is one of those weeks when you look at the statistics of the previous leaderboards and don’t really get much help. The one statistic that jumps out if any of them do is GIR but even then that is not a real strong one. That tells me form and a good all-round game are the things to be looking out for. This has become a shootout in recent years so a good putter is never a bad thing.
The Field
You wouldn’t expect the first tournament of a season to have a raft of big names in it just because its less than three weeks since the last campaign ended. There is also a decent run of tournaments in Europe too but Bryson DeChambeau tees it up this week to give the field at least one focal point. The likes of Marc Leishman, Bubba Watson and Jason Kokrak are established players who are also in the field.
This season could be all about the young brigade and with that in mind the likes of Viktor Hovland, Joaquin Niemann and Sungjae Im will be looking to take advantage of their chance to shine. Russell Henley, Scott Piercy, Keegan Bradley and the defending champion Kevin Na are just some of the senior statesmen looking to hold off the young bucks.
Market Leaders
It is Bryson DeChambeau who heads the betting heading into the tournament this week. He is a 12/1 shot and we could look back at the end of the week and reflect on that being a big price as at number 10 in the world he is a clear leading light this week. I suspect he isn’t quite firing on all cylinders though and hasn’t been since the whole slow play thing blew up in his face. That hasn’t died down enough yet for me to take him.
Viktor Hovland is going to win this season and he’s probably going to win multiple times. He’s actually my dark horse pick for the FedEx Cup if and ever anyone ever prices that particular market up. He’s only a 14/1 shot this week though which is a little short given that while he won his Tour card on the Korn Ferry finals he never actually won a tournament. Sadly the qualities of Hovland are well publicised and we’re not going to see any value in him this season.
Jason Kokrak is the third favourite to win this week at 16/1. I can’t be having any of that at all. 16/1 on a bloke who has been on Tour forever and a day and is yet to win? Not for me Clive. He finished last season in good form and for consistency alone I hope there’s a win in him somewhere. Having backed him a few times I also hope it is a week we can get a decent price on him. This isn’t it though so he’s easily swerved.
Sungjae Im is another to keep our eye on this season and he was the last one off my shortlist when it came to picking bets for this tournament. I really like him but he is a course debutant this week and that was enough to put me off at 25/1. I prefer others at a bigger price but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the Korean is deep in the mix as we head into the weekend. It is 28/1 bar those four men.
Main Bets
There is a correlation in terms of course designer between this and the Sony Open so Russell Henley is an obvious player to kick the team off with. He won that tournament in 2013 so it should be no surprise that his last three spins around here have seen him finish in the top 10 on each occasion. It wasn’t too long ago that he was a runner up in the John Deere Classic and we have absolutely no questions about his putting where he is one of the best on Tour. He looks to be rounding into a good groove in his game at the right time to land this.
Regular readers will know I’m a sucker for the Web.com Tour or Korn Ferry Tour as it is now known graduates in these early tournaments and it stands to reason to take the best player from the second tier last season in Scottie Scheffler. He was the best player because his all-round game is spot on but importantly he ranked fifth in GIR on that Tour, 15 in putting average, T4 for par 4 scoring average and first in actual scoring average. Basically he more than earned his place among the big boys and with his all-round game in good order he should begin this campaign strongly at an acceptable price.
Outsiders
I’ll throw three darts at this tournament as well with the first one being on a man who actually won at PGA Tour level in 2018 in Andrew Landry. He won the Texas Open but it is his form at the end of last season which I liked. He was third in the John Deere Classic and then followed that up with a top 20 at the Wyndham Championship and a creditable effort in the first event of the play-offs. By not making the last two weeks he’s had a little while off to work on his game and keep everything ticking over. At his best he’s more than good enough to win this and at the price I’m happy to pay to see if he does so.
My final two picks are both graduates albeit ones who have been on the Tour before. Zac Blair ended last season with a win and four top 10 finishes in his last eight tournaments and statistically he ticks all the boxes this week. He’s a strong three figure price which is nice. Robby Shelton was once seen as the next big thing on the PGA Tour. It hasn’t gone to plan yet but he wouldn’t be the first person to drop off the Tour, find some form and confidence at the second level and then fulfil his potential in the big time. Shelton was T22 on GIR, second in putting average and T16 for par 4 scoring average on the Korn Ferry Tour. Those statistics make him better than a 250/1 shot here.
Tips
Back R.Henley to win Greenbrier Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-8)
PLACED – Back R.Shelton to win Greenbrier Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 251.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
PLACED – Back S.Scheffler to win Greenbrier Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-7)
Back Z.Blair to win Greenbrier Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
Back A.Landry to win Greenbrier Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
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