The European Tour is back in Germany this week and with no PGA Tour event clashing with the Porsche European Open, a really good field has been assembled for a tournament that has a decent history.
It was a huge week for Richard McEvoy last year when he broke through and won the title against all the odds. He will defend here but he’ll attempt to win back his title against a much stronger field than the one he beat.
Recent Winners
2018 – Richard McEvoy
2017 – Jordan Smith
2016 – Alex Levy
2015 – Thongchai Jaidee
2009 – Christian Cevaer
2008 – Ross Fisher
The Course
For a third year in succession it is the Green Eagle Golf Resort in Hamburg which will stage this tournament. In many ways we are still finding out about the course because it has played differently in both previous times they have hosted it. On paper the course is incredibly long at 7,544 yards but if the organisers want to it can go beyond 7,800 yards, yet one of the shorter hitters on the tour walked off with the title last year. The general feeling is that this is a week for the longer hitters though and I wouldn’t necessarily disagree with that.
The large undulating greens are easy to find here but the longer hitters will be firing shorters irons into them which means that they can go for the flags a little more which could be the difference. Stick to the longer hitters but ones who can hole a few putts because this could turn into a low scoring event with rain forecast towards the end of it.
The Field
We have a few regulars from the PGA Tour over for this tournament with Xander Schauffele, Patrick Reed, Matt Kuchar and Paul Casey all teeing it up for the week. Another player who is in the field is the recent Czech Masters winner Thomas Pieters while twice winner on Tour this year in Bernd Wiesberger is also in the field.
Former winners Jordan Smith and Richard McEvoy have a tee times this week those looking to emulate the pair and win on the European Tour for the first time such as Matthias Schwab, Adri Arnaus and Sam Hrosfield are also in the tournament. Established European stars such as Andy Sullivan, Ross Fisher and Alexander Levy add an extra flavour to proceedings.
Market Leaders
Xander Schauffele will tee it up as the tournament favourite this week. He is a 13/2 shot to win the title which is pretty short in a lot of ways. He is extremely talented though and a level above the European Tour so I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he does walk off with the title this week but I’m not that comfortable backing anyone from across the pond at this sort of a price. Maybe a couple of European events down the line I could but not now.
Paul Casey would probably rank as a better option than Schauffele anyway. Casey went well at East Lake last time out and has plenty more experience of European tournaments so the slightly bigger 7/1 offers more appeal to me but even then that is only relative as regular readers will know I’m rarely that interested in taking a single figure price. I’m not going to change that stance here even though I respect Casey’s chances.
Patrick Reed completes the trio of those who are a single figure price and given that it was only last month that he won a play-off tournament on the PGA Tour there is a genuine case for suggesting he should be the favourite for this event. Reed has spoken about finishing the European Tour season strong and there is a case to be made that 8/1 is a decent price. I’m still not really interested in it however.
Matt Kuchar is 14/1 to win the title and on the right course you could certainly take a genuine interest in that but while he tends to score well on these monster courses you have to look down this field and think others are better suited to it and offer up better value. Kuchar is a man who is always on my radar in the right week but my gut feeling is that this isn’t that time. It is 16/1 bar.
Main Bets
I’m looking a little deeper into the betting for my main bets this week with the first of them being Renato Paratore who was in with a chance of winning this event last year and who comes into it having trended in the right direction in recent times. He finished with a round of 64 in Scandinavia a couple of weeks ago and followed that up with another decent effort in Switzerland last week. He was second to McEvoy here last year and has a top 10 in the BMW International Open too so he likes Germany clearly. Paratore has the length to tame this beast and with the rest of his game falling into shape nicely, he’s a big price at 50s.
Jordan Smith won around here in 2017 and despite a poor run of form prior to the tournament this week I think he’s a chance at a big price. His previous sojourn to Germany earlier in the season saw him finish third in the BMW International so it is clearly a nation that is good to him and those memories can bring out the best in his game, as this golf course can. He hits it a long way and generally goes better in the tournaments on big greens which is what we have here. If he wasn’t on a run of missed cuts we’d only be getting around 33s on him here but I’m prepared to take a chance despite the mixed form.
Outsiders
I’ve found three that I like at a big price with the first of them coming in the Australian player Min Woo Lee. He is the longest hitter on the European Tour which is going to count for something this week and while consistency isn’t his strength he has some decent results on Tour this season. He has five top 25 finishes including a couple in the desert where length came into play like it is likely to here. You sense there will only be certain weeks where Lee is going to be competitive and this should be one of them. I’ll pay to see how he can go at 150/1.
Kurt Kitayama has already been good to me once this season and I’m happy to get involved in him again at a monster price. He is third on the European Tour in the driving distance statistic which as I keep saying should play a big role this tournament. He has already used that length to win two titles this season and he put up another good showing in the other German event as well. I’m prepared to give him his last few missed cuts because links golf is a different ball game while yardages last week were all over the place but based on his form in the desert and suitability to this course I think he’s a chance here at a big price.
Finally I’ll go with Zander Lombard who is another who is high up on the European Tour driving distance. He sits at 24 in that statistic and prior to last week he was coming into form nicely. I’ll allow him last week because you can either play the altitude or you can’t. He has a number of top 20 finishes on the Tour this season and the trend is they tend to come on the longer tracks where the length is the key feature. I fancy he can be a real fixture in big events between now and the end of the season and they can start here.
Tips
Back R.Paratore to win Porsche European Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with BetVictor (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back J.Smith to win Porsche European Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 61.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back M.Woo Lee to win Porsche European Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-7)
Back Z.Lombard to win Porsche European Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-7)
Back K.Kitayama to win Porsche European Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 176.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-7)
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