It is semi-final day at The Masters on Saturday and the opening match of the two on what should be a special day of snooker inside the Alexandra Palace, sees Ronnie O’Sullivan going up against Ding Junhui for a spot in Sunday’s final.
We’ve not seen vintage O’Sullivan this week but what we have seen has been good enough to progress. Ding has shown an upturn in form to make it into this semi-final where he probably has nothing to lose from here on in.
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Ding Junhui
We didn’t really know what to expect from Ding Junhui heading into this tournament because his season hadn’t been the best to date. In truth we didn’t learn a whole lot more after his first round win over Jack Lisowski, as the debutant got caught in the environment and failed to perform, but we saw much more like the old Ding in the quarter final, even though Luca Brecel took him to a deciding frame.
The fact that Ding lost a frame in that quarter final by failing to hit a ball three times suggests that he is still not on peak form but we can’t criticise his fighting spirit. He will need to improve to win this match, that goes without saying, but for the first time this week he is playing with the freedom of being the underdog so don’t be surprised if we do see his best here.
Ronnie O’Sullivan
We haven’t seen the best of Ronnie O’Sullivan in this tournament yet this week. He intimated in his interview after the win over Ryan Day that he has felt jaded all tournament which could be a reason for that, but what we have seen has been more than good enough to come through to this stage. In truth he hasn’t had to play above himself as Stuart Bingham was useless in the first round and Day clearly felt the occasion in the quarter final.
O’Sullivan will be eager to get through this stage having lost out in the quarter final last year and he has such a huge respect for Ding that I’m expecting to see something close to his best game here. The one part of O’Sullivan’s game that has been in good order this week has been his tactical game and I don’t expect that to change in this one.
Head to Head
These two have met in 19 previous occasions with O’Sullivan coming out on top 12 times to the four victories of Ding. They have also had three draws. O’Sullivan has won seven of their last eight meetings and judging by the frame advantage of 115-71 that he holds, generally his wins over Ding are quite wide. One of those wide wins was in the final of this tournament in 2007 when he won 10-3. That was the second match of the three they have played in this event. The Rocket has won all three.
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Betting
I’m expecting Ronnie O’Sullivan to win this match but I’ve noticed all season that against anyone in the top 16 he is often guilty of a slow start. He has played 14 matches against top 16 players this term and lost the opening frame on no fewer than 10 occasions. He’s also gone 1-0 down to Tom Ford, Ken Doherty, Luke Simmonds, Zhou Yuelong, Mark Davis and Kurt Maflin over the course of the campaign too.
With that in mind the 5/2 on Ding to win the first frame but go on to lose the match looks to have a little bit of mileage on the value ground in this semi-final. Ding needs to get off to a fast start if he is to go on and win the match and he’s won the last three opening frames he has played against the Rocket. The handicaps look about right to me so we might get a better payout this way.
Tips
Back R.O’Sullivan to LOSE the first frame but WIN the match for a 3/10 stake at 3.50 with Betfair
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