The final major of the year takes place this week and for the first time in 68 years The Open heads back to Royal Portrush for what is one of the most anticipated renewals in the history of the famous competition, with crowds set to be huge on one of the best courses on the circuit.
Francesco Molinari bolster his and our bank accounts last year when he took this down at Carnoustie and he will be looking to retain the title, but another loaded field will oppose him looking to get their hands on the illustrious Claret Jug.
Recent Winners
2018 – Francesco Molinari
2017 – Jordan Spieth
2016 – Henrik Stenson
2015 – Zach Johnson
2014 – Rory McIlroy
2013 – Phil Mickelson
2012 – Ernie Els
2011 – Darren Clarke
2010 – Louis Oosthuizen
2009 – Stewart Cink
The Course
Royal Portrush is staging professional golf for the first time since it held the Irish Open in 2012 although the course is completely different now. Firstly there are two new holes which are taken from the other course that runs alongside the Championship track and the par is a 71 measuring 7,344 yards as opposed to the par 72, 7,143 yard test that was used seven years ago.
This course is set in the dunes of County Antrim with tight fairways and pretty dense rough which is going to get a soaking over the course of the week. The track is best known for the elevation changes so pinpoint accuracy with the approach shots is going to be key this week. The greens are fairway big but are like saucers and the drop offs on the edges are extreme so you’ll need to be on someone who scrambles well here. That was a massive stat in the Irish Open seven years ago. A decent putter is never a bad thing either.
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The Field
It almost goes without saying that this is another high quality field, with near enough anyone who is anyone in the game of golf being here. Masters champion Tiger Woods is here, as are the USPGA and US Open champions Brooks Koepka and Gary Woodland while Francesco Molinari defends this title and will hope to make his mark on the event once again.
Rory McIlroy will be the darling of the crowds this week, who also get to support Darren Clarke, Padraig Harrington, Graeme McDowell and Shane Lowry here. Plenty of other stars names are on show including Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth, Phil Mickelson, Adam Scott, Jason Day, Tommy Fleetwood and Henrik Stenson among others.
Market Leaders
Rory McIlroy is the favourite for this tournament. It is well known that he shot the course record here as a teenager although that was in an amateur event it has to be said. Nevertheless he has played this course countless times and is a very worthy favourite. I don’t think anyone would be too surprised if he wins the tournament this week but there is a lot of pressure and expectation on him so at 9/1 I can afford to leave him alone despite his obvious credentials.
Brooks Koepka tends to deliver his best golf at the majors although this is one that he hasn’t won. He does have a couple of top 10s in it though and if he drives the ball well you would think his length would be an advantage in terms of the shorter irons he will be hitting into these greens. I’m not completely sure this course will suit the Americans though and with the wind likely to be up for the first day Koepka could just be a little short.
Dustin Johnson and Jon Rahm come next in the betting at 16/1. I’m not sure Johnson has improved or even maintained his form over the last 12 months and if he hasn’t won this tournament yet I wonder if he ever will. I would be surprised if he wins this year. Rahm goes in here having torn up the Irish Open a couple of weeks ago and on that form he would be a major player but he is a fair price at best and potentially a little skinny at worst. There are still concerns over his temperament in majors so I’ll pass him over as well.
Tiger Woods is a 20/1 shot to win this week and while he is always capable of doing anything on a golf course you’ve got to think a lack of competitive reps since he won at Augusta will be his undoing here. Justin Rose is a 22/1 poke here and while his links record is terrible, if that is going to change anywhere it could be here with his tee to green accuracy. I’m not sure his short game stands up to this test so he’s easy enough to swerve. It is 28/1 bar those named.
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Main Bets
I’m going with a couple of main bets this week. Henrik Stenson has been my number one pick for this tournament for quite a while so I was delighted to see him perform so well in his tune up last week. He was the best player in the field from tee to green in Scotland but a stone cold putter denied him threatening for the title but I would expect much better putting from him this week with these greens said to be perfectly fair. Stenson doesn’t miss many fairways, he leads the PGA Tour for strokes gained on approach and has a perfectly competent short game. At 30/1 I think he’s the man who will take a lot of beating this week.
Matt Kuchar should have won this tournament two years ago. I was on him that week and I’m back for more this week. His form this year has been wonderful and although he’s not done himself too many favours PR wise off the course, he is certainly a monster on it right now. He has won twice Stateside this season and been second twice too. He was in the top 20 last week which was a good warm up for him and suits this course perfectly. He embraces links golf and works well at it. His tee to green strength is great with him tenth in strokes gained on approach and is eighth in scrambling. He has to be a major player here.
Outsiders
I’ve had plenty of success with outsiders in this tournament and other majors throughout the years and I’ll go with four here. Shane Lowry should go very well in this tournament. He has a wonderful touch and short game, arguably one of the best in the world in that discipline and given that he has won on the European Tour this year already we know he is hitting the ball nicely. If there is a concern it comes in the form of expectation of a home crowd but he’s won the Irish Open before so that isn’t too much of an issue. I think he’ll embrace that and he looks a big price to me.
Matthew Fitzpatrick arrives here in good form having missed out on a play-off in the BMW International Open last month and then performing well in the Scottish Open last week and none of that surprises me as he is a quality player. This course could well bring out the best in him too as his strength is from tee to green but he has a solid short game and he is one of the best putters going round. I think we’re looking for someone who doesn’t need to crank it to get the job done this week and that is definitely Fitzpatrick. I’d be surprised if he isn’t in the mix on Sunday.
Tyrrell Hatton is coming back into form nicely and there was a lot to like about him in Scotland last week. He is seventh on the European Tour in strokes gained on approach and we’ve seen in both his Dunhill Links victories that he has the touch, creativity and imagination for links golf. Hatton was one of the better putters in the tournament last week so if he can just dial a few more irons in then he has everything in his arsenal to go well here. He’s an attractive enough price to have an interest in this week.
There is no point in looking at the statistics for Andrew Johnston because he has struggled this year for reasons which have come to light but he should be on a high after his exploits in Scotland last week and he could be worth siding with here. He already has a top 10 in this tournament to his name and Portrush sets up perfectly for a man who is of the highest quality from tee to green when he is going well. I sense his issues are behind him now and he’s ready to play great golf again and if he does he might have another exciting Sunday in him at a humungous price.
Tips
Back H.Stenson to win The Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 31.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
Back M.Kuchar to win The Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with 888sport (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
WON – Back S.Lowry to win The Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 71.00 with Bet365 (1/5 1-8)
Back M.Fitzpatrick to win The Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 76.00 with Bet365 (1/5 1-8)
PLACED – Back T.Hatton to win The Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 91.00 with Bet365 (1/5 1-8)
Back A.Johnston to win The Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 251.00 with Betway (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
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