Essex booked their spot at the Vitality Blast finals day later in the month with a win over Lancashire in the first quarter final on Wednesday evening and on Thursday night Nottinghamshire and Middlesex will battle it out to join them at Edgbaston.
Nottinghamshire secured home advantage for this mouth-watering quarter final courtesy of finishing second in the North Group, although they laboured a little at times, while Middlesex finished strongly to come third in the South, form which Essex franked on Wednesday.
Nottinghamshire
Home advantage should be a big thing for the Nottinghamshire side but what could also be key is the experience of winning quarter finals recently and knowing how to make it through to finals day. That day is so big that these matches carry extra pressure because teams are one win away, hence we often see tight matches and teams freezing under the weight of the want to make it through to Edgbaston. Nottinghamshire should be able to manage their emotions here.
What they will need to do though is ensure they deliver their best cricket. They have been inconsistent this season, especially with the bat, as in only one of their last five completed matches have they scored more than 150 runs. The flip side of that is that they are bowling well, but they won’t want to rely on their bowlers to deliver against arguably the most powerful batting line up left in the competition.
Middlesex
This has been a much improved white ball campaign for Middlesex and now they will hope to crown it by making a first appearance at finals day since they won the title back in 2008 at the Ageas Bowl. The first big positive for the Seaxes is that they have already played knockout cricket this season in their last group game against Somerset where they had to win to progress and delivered the best run chase the competition has ever seen.
That was needed because there had been a couple of matches prior to that where their batting had tailed off a little, despite the obvious power it has had at its disposal. Middlesex’s bowling has been very strong this season. They have four bowlers who have 15 wickets or more for the season so getting deep into opposing batting line ups has not been an issue at any stage. If you were being harsh you could say that with all four going at more than eight an over they are expensive but you have to balance that with the grounds they have played on.
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Team News
Nottinghamshire have overseas pair Dan Christian and Imad Wasim available for this knockout clash while Alex Hales is also expected to be involved despite his inclusion in the CPL this season. Harry Gurney will be key with the ball.
Middlesex are boosted by the availability of Mujeeb Ur Rahman for this match. He replaces Mohammad Hafeez who has left for the Caribbean. AB de Villiers is around while Eoin Morgan is also in the squad for the match.
Betting
I think Middlesex will win this match. I just think that despite a wobble or two with the bat towards the end of the group stage they have so much more in that department and the knowledge that they have played knockout cricket and come out on top will be huge for their confidence. Nottinghamshire suffered a tame loss in their final group game and while they were already through they thought at the time that they needed to win to secure this home quarter final so it wasn’t like their foot was off the gas or anything. That is a concern for me. Middlesex are loaded with match winners with bat and ball and this is their time to make finals day.
I’m surprised we are being enticed with a 40.5 boundaries line for this match given the batting that is on show here and the ground the match is being played on. Middlesex have just been involved in a match that saw 225 chased down with overs to spare and I don’t think they’ve used up all their boundaries just yet. Nottinghamshire have got Imad Wasim batting down at eight below seven out and out batsmen in their ranks and take on a bowling attack who collective leak more than eight an over. This really should be a match which sees the boundaries flow especially with the number of left-handers there are targeting that short boundary.
Samit Patel batted at five against Durham in the last match and he interests me to be the top Nottinghamshire batsman at 10/1. He has had a very ordinary time of it in this competition with the willow but we saw two experienced guns getting Essex home on Wednesday evening and if Nottinghamshire are to defy the odds here it is likely that someone who can hold their nerve will be the man to deliver for them here. Samit Patel has been there and done it and so often been the glue for this Nottinghamshire side. It looks like his days at Trent Bridge are coming to an end so in what could be his last appearance there it could be worth chancing that he goes out with a bang.
Tips
Back Middlesex to beat Nottinghamshire for a 4/10 stake at 1.80 with Betfred
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Back Over 40.5 boundaries for a 4/10 stake at 1.83 with William Hill
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Back S.Patel Top Nottinghamshire Batsman for a 1/10 stake at 11.00 with Betfair
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