The PGA Tour leaves Muirfield Village and heads north to Minnesota this week for the second staging of the 3M Open, the final chance for the players involved to build their form ahead of the first WGC and major since the restart.
Matthew Wolff enjoyed the new tournament 12 months ago when he walked off with the inaugural title and he is back to look to defend that title. He’ll do so against a pretty strong field on what should be another good week of golf.
Recent Winners
2019 – Matthew Wolff
The Course
We are back at TPC Twin Cities this week, the second time the course has been used in the two years of the tournament. The course has had a little bit of work done to it in the last 12 months and is 27 yards shorter at 7,431 yards. It is a par 71 though so it is a bit of a monster where the longer hitters can have their way for probably the first time since the Tour resumed. There are some drivable holes around here which will see their eyes light up.
Last year Wolff pounded his driver and that length is probably more important than accuracy. The other thing to consider is that we are in summer so there is a good chance of storms at some point in the week which will make an already long course play even longer. It is also likely to be a low scoring week so be sure to be on someone whose putter is on song more often than not.
The Field
When you think the next two weeks are a WGC event and the USPGA, there are still some big names in the field this week. Dustin Johnson and Brooks Koepka set the standard in terms of the world rankings while the likes of Tony Finau, Matthew Wolff, Bubba Watson and Luke Liist are just some of the players in the field who would have the bomber asterisk next to their name, and will be popular with many I’m sure.
Even though the UK swing has started this week there is still the likes of Paul Casey, Tommy Fleetwood, Alex Noren, Tom Lewis and Bernd Wiesberger in the field, using this week to atone to US conditions in some cases. Other leading lights with tee times in Minnesota are Russell Henley, Harris English, Lucas Glover, Doc Redman and Sam Burns. Overall the field is pretty well albeit with a few headliners mixed in.
Market Leaders
Dustin Johnson has seen the two sides to golf in his last two outings. He won the Travelers two starts ago and then shot 16 over around Muirfield Village last week. He is still the 11/1 favourite to come out on top here this week but whether you can back such a short price with confidence after that disaster remains to be seen. To be fair this field is a lot weaker than the one he beat at the Travelers but confidence is a flaky thing and last week might have damaged it enough for him to be swerved here.
Tony Finau will go off as a 14/1 second favourite but if you are going to back him you are going to be hoping he uses more of his brain than he did last week when he had The Memorial if not in the palm of his hands midway through round three, certainly where he wanted it. He then completely lost the plot which might highlight why his only PGA Tour success to date is the lower tier Puerto Rico Open. Finau has the length required around here but whether he has the other tools to go with it remains to be seen.
Tommy Fleetwood tees it up for the first time since the restart this week and you immediately wonder how much he is here to win the golf tournament and how much he is playing to blow away the cobwebs and familiarise himself with the new world ahead of two big weeks to follow. He is 16/1 to win the tournament here and in normal circumstances where he’s been playing regularly that would be more than acceptable. I am doubtful though I must admit.
The only other man in the field who is shorter than 20/1 is the man who will defend his USPGA title in two weeks in Brooks Koepka. He is also a 16/1 shot on the best prices but it has been clear to see since the restart that he is not 100% fit regardless of what anyone in his team would suggest. His record in these minor events has been pretty poor for a while when you stack it alongside his form in the majors so he’s a pretty simple swerve too. It is 22/1 bar.
Main Bets
Lucas Glover has been on my radar for a while and I’ve been waiting for the time to get on him. This weaker field looks the best chance. He might not be the longest hitter known to man but he is hitting the golf ball pretty well and most importantly of all his putting has improved beyond all recognition since the restart. He tied the course record in the final round here last year so we don’t need to worry about a lack of length meaning that he can’t score around here. He has four top 25s in much stronger fields than this one since the restart so given that his putting is in a nice groove and he has a top 10 to his name here already I think he looks a decent bet this week.
Luke List has had a decent time of it since lockdown and he is always someone I like when players can flex their muscles off the tee box. List won on the Korn Ferry Tour last month and was in the top 10 at Muirfield Village last week on a golf course as tough as teak. If you can handle Jack’s place in that mood you can play anywhere. List is clearly carrying some good confidence with him, he belts it a long way and he is clearly putting well. He could be overpriced in this weaker field here.
Outsiders
I’ll go with a couple of outsiders as well with Ryan Armour the first of those. He has been in pretty good nick since lockdown with a couple of top six finishes at the Travelers and the Rocket Mortgage Classic and although he missed the cut in the Workday Charity Open it is perfectly possible that he isn’t quite ready to thrive on tough tracks. This certainly isn’t that so he should be more comfortable here. He shot -11 here last year but is clearly in much better form at the minute and has more confidence. I keep repeating it but this field isn’t great and he looks a fair bet at 80/1.
Wyndham Clark hasn’t got going since lockdown but this might be the week he comes to life. He was fifth here last year so that should immediately bring out good memories for him. Clark belts it a long way off the tee and ranked as one of the best putters on tour last season. He is a little lower in that statistic this season but not drastically so. His long game has been bang out of sorts since the restart but there isn’t as much scrutiny on that this week so with his length and his touch on the greens I’ll pay to see how well he goes.
Tips
Back L.Glover to win 3M Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 36.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back L.List to win 3M Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
Back R.Armour to win 3M Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-7)
Back W.Clark to win 3M Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 91.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-7)
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