The European Tour remains in South Africa this week when it visits one of the most stunning courses on the circuit as the Alfred Dunhill Championship takes place for the second time in this strange season, given the need to fill the calendar differently this year.
Pablo Larrazabal was a bit of a surprise winner here last year but he returns to attempt to make a successful defence of the title despite the season ending DP World Tour Championship next week. Given the proximity of that event a pretty good field will oppose the Spaniard here.
Recent Winners
2019 – Pablo Larrazabal
2018 – David Lipsky
2017 – No Tournament
2016 – Brandon Stone
2015 – Charl Schwartzel
2014 – Branden Grace
2013 – Charl chwartzel
2012 – Charl Schwartzel
2011 – Garth Mulroy
2010 – Pablo Martin
The Course
It is the Leopard Creek Country Club that is the venue for the tournament this week. You never truly know what is more stunning here, the wildlife or the golf. Hopefully both will be fantastic around this par 72 track which measures 7,249 yards. The course underwent some work in 2017 and since then we’ve seen winning scores of -14 courtesy of an insane putting display from David Lipsky, and -8 so this is a much tougher track than it used to be.
That makes accuracy very much a premium here. There was an element of that anyway with water in play on a number of the holes but since the changes the keys to success here very much seems to be hitting a lot of greens and having a very warm putter. The course has been fast and firm over the last two years and there is little to suggest we will get anything different here so accurate hitters who have been putting well should make the shortlist.
The Field
There is a much stronger field this week than which began the South African swing last week. That is partly a surprise because the best of Europe will be heading to Dubai next week but then at the same time it isn’t too much of a shock because the test that Leopard Creek provides will often attract the better golfers and this week is certainly no different in that regard. Pablo Larrazabal will defend his title against a pretty good field.
We have five players in the top 100 in the world rankings teeing it up this week. Christiaan Bezuidenhout is the best ranked with Robert MacIntyre not too far behind him. George Coetzee, Garrick Higgo and Shaun Norris make up that quintet. Other notables in the field include Eddie Pepperell, Jorge Campillo, Matthias Schwab, Adri Arnaus and the winner of the Joburg Open last week in JB Hansen.
Market Leaders
Former champion Brandon Stone is a 12/1 favourite to regain the title he won in 2016. He came off a break to finish fourth last week and that has got the attention of a number of punters I would think. Stone has made no secret of his enjoyment and love of Leopard Creek so there are a number of boxes that he ticks. One of them however isn’t 72 hole consistency as I found out to my cost last year and I’m not really one for backing him at short prices as a result of that.
Robert MacIntyre is a 14/1 second favourite this week and having broken his European Tour duck in Cyprus last time out the Scot will be heading to South Africa with his confidence high. We should acknowledge that the tournament he won had a quirky format to it but the eight rounds he played over the two weeks in Cyprus he shot -38 and you don’t do that if you are not hitting the ball well. He has stated he has only arrived here because he enjoys the challenge so he probably shouldn’t be dismissed. His price is tight at best though.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout was a weak favourite for the Joburg Open last week and he’ll begin this tournament as the 16/1 third favourite. I think this event will be more to his liking although that doesn’t mean I necessarily think he will win. He certainly has the tee-to-green proficiency to go very well indeed but his putter can go a little cold which would be a concern. He missed the cut here last year which is another turnoff so he isn’t for me.
Wilco Nienaber made the headlines for his 438-yard drive last week but he would have much preferred to have stoke the show for winning the tournament, something a bogey on the penultimate hole cost him the chance to do. He is clearly a promising talent but I didn’t like the way his scoring went stone cold last Sunday when he was basically in a match with the winner JB Hansen. He needs to convince me that he can play his best game in contention before I back him at these prices.
Main Bets
I’ll take a couple of main bets this week with the first of those being the American player who is beginning to make a name for himself at this level in Johannes Veerman. It was actually here earlier in the season where Veerman first came to prominence as he finished in the top 10. Since the restart he has had three top 10s including in Cyprus where he would have beaten the winner in a normal format after shooting -22 for the week. He also has another top 20 in that period too which is good form. Veerman sits fifth in the strokes gained putting statistic for the season and hit plenty of greens last week. He’s going well enough to justify a bet at the prices.
Wil Besseling finished third here earlier in the season, a performance he repeated at Valderrama recently so there is an element of playing tough courses well about the Dutchman. One of the reasons for that is because Besseling sits third on the European Tour this term for greens in regulation. Usually it is his putter which can be the questionable element to his game but you don’t come third here if you can’t putt or don’t get on with these greens so that might not be as much of a concern here as it often is. If he can get the putter hot early doors the quality of his long game should have him in pretty decent order this week.
Outsiders
I’ll go with three outsiders as well. I’ve backed Joel Sjoholm already since the restart and I suspect we might get another run for our money with him here too. The Swede sits fifth in strokes gained on approach this season and last week came in the top 15 for putts per GIR so when he hits the greens he is scoring well in the main which is what you have to do around here. Sjoholm was actually the closest pursuer to Larrazabal here earlier in the season and I’m not completely surprised by that. I think it is worth seeing how the Swede goes here.
Another big priced player who it could pay to be with this week is Jonathan Caldwell. We took him last week and he was solid if not spectacular when actually we were let down by his putter which was both annoying and surprising because he is actually one of the better putters on the tour statistically. It might have been that scoreboard pressure got him so in a higher scoring tournament he might be better suited to the task here. There was nothing wrong with his long game last week so if he can get the putter hot again he could go well for us.
At a speculative price I’ll also take a chance on Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano who put up some solid numbers in Joburg last week. He was fifth in strokes gained on approach and in the top 20 for putts per GIR in a T30 finish which could have been so much more having been six under after the first round. His effort there fizzled out but he has actually been scoring alright in recent times without contending. His skills suit this track nicely and it could well be worth paying to see if that translates into a high finish here.
Tips
Back J.Veerman to win Alfred Dunhill Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 36.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back W.Besseling to win Alfred Dunhill Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back J.Caldwell to win Alfred Dunhill Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
Back G.Fernandez-Castano to win Alfred Dunhill Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 201.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
Back J.Sjoholm to win Alfred Dunhill Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 111.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-7)
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