This much rearranged and truncated PGA Tour season has reached its penultimate tournament this week as the leading 70 players in the FedEx Cup rankings head to the outskirts of Chicago for the BMW Championship, knowing that only the top 30 at the end of the week will tee it up in the season finale.
Justin Thomas had no such worries last year, as he doesn’t this year either, and he is the man who will defend the title which he won down the road at Medinah this time last year. He’ll defend against a strong field.
Recent Winners
2019 – Justin Thomas
2018 – Keegan Bradley
2017 – Marc Leishman
2016 – Dustin Johnson
2015 – Jason Day
2014 – Billy Horschel
2013 – Zach Johnson
2012 – Rory McIlroy
2011 – Justin Rose
2010 – Dustin Johnson
The Course
Justin Thomas won the title at Medinah last year but he will defend at Olympia Fields, the course which Jim Furyk won the US Open on back in 2003. The first thing to say about this course is it is long. It is a par 70 which stretches 7,366 which is a real monster when you consider there are only two par 5s around here. That isn’t to say that length will be the overriding factor because the course is said to be firm, but getting it out there might help.
Wherever you read up on this course there appears to be a real premium for playing from the fairways. Depending on where you look the rough is said to be anything from 3 to 5 inches thick and with the greens firm clearly accuracy off the tee is going to be important. It all sounds very familiar to the USPGA Championship a few weeks ago when much the same was said. I’m after pure ball strikers here who we know will be playing from the short grass. A bit of length is no bad thing though.
The Field
70 men have qualified for the tournament but only 69 are taking their chances as Webb Simpson pulled out of the event earlier in the week. That still makes for a very strong field which is headed by the defending champion Justin Thomas and the winner of the opening play-off event last week in Dustin Johnson. A certain Tiger Woods is also in the field, as is the only major winner of 2020 to date in Collin Morikawa.
The recently replaced world number one Jon Rahm is in the field looking for a title to boost his chances of the overall title next week while the likes of Rory McIlroy, Bryson DeChambeau, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Reed, Daniel Berger, Jason Day and Patrick Cantlay will all consider themselves to have leading chances on what is expected to be a testing golf course which should make for a very appealing week.
Market Leaders
Dustin Johnson is an 8/1 favourite to add this title to The Northern Trust title which he won last week. It is hard to argue against that given how well he scored and how dominant he was but this is likely to be a very different week and it will be interesting to see how much last week took out of him. He’s going to go to East Lake next week in a very good position so he doesn’t need to force the issue this week. To be fair Johnson is probably the one to beat but he’s plenty short enough for my liking.
Jon Rahm is a 10/1 second favourite to claim the crown here. His length is expected to be a real weapon and the longer last week went on the better he clearly played so both those factors bode well for him here. I’m not a fan of Rahm on firm courses though. He just rarely seems to get his touch right on them and over 72 holes here he is definitely going to need to do that. As with Johnson, I wouldn’t be surprised if Rahm wins here but the price does little to nothing for me.
Bryson DeChambeau and Justin Thomas are next in the betting at 14/1. DeChambeau is being talked up this week because he won the US Amateur on this track a few years ago but we shouldn’t forget that event is matchplay in the latter stages. If this course is as firm as it is being made out to be his touch will need to have improved. Thomas is pretty easy to talk up here but I’m still not convinced by him in contention at the minute plus I hate backing defending champions of tournaments. All in all neither of these are for me.
Xander Schauffele is another who looks to have all the tools needed to tame this test and it is no surprise that he is 16/1 to win the tournament. He has done almost everything but win since lockdown and you would imagine a win isn’t going to be too far away. He tends to raise his game for the big events as well and so he ticks a lot of boxes. I’m just not convinced he wins enough to be backed at this price in this company. It is 18/1 bar.
Main Bets
The more I read about this week the more I think the USPGA at Harding Park earlier this month is significant so it stands to reason that we should back the man who won that tournament with our money on him which is Collin Morikawa. The classy major champion missed the cut at TPC Boston last week but that doesn’t bother me. It was his first start since winning the USPGA so he was likely to need time to adjust to the new status he has within the game. He has a lot going for him this week though. He is third on the PGA Tour in strokes gained from tee to green and we saw in San Francisco, and at the Workday Charity Open before that, that his putting is coming on leaps and bounds. Morikawa has been in the top 10 for driving accuracy in his last four starts and we all know how well he hits iron shots. He tasted this course in the 2015 US Amateur and at 22/1 he looks a standout bet here.
Matthew Wolff had a good week at the USPGA Championship recently and that followed on from a good showing at the Rocket Mortgage Classic prior to that so the big hitter has been in decent nick since lockdown and this test should really bring out his strengths in much the same way that the USPGA Championship one did. He was right in contention on the final day there and with his length and his ball striking ability it won’t need a lot for him to be very competitive here. His putting weakness isn’t as much of an issue this week with nobody having any real experience of the greens but he does because he won a college tournament here a couple of years ago. That makes me think Wolff could be very dangerous on a return to a track that holds good memories for him.
Outsiders
Cameron Champ was one of my picks for the USPGA Championship and he finished in the top 10 there so it makes sense for him to be a bet for me again here. He probably fits this course even better than he did at Harding Park because he is straight and long off the tee and will be hitting shorter irons into these firm greens. We saw in San Francisco that his putting is beginning to get better and he is another player who has had college success around here. That might not carry much relevance but it can never be a bad thing to have up your locker. At 70/1 the winner of the season opener is a more than fair price to win the penultimate event too.
Robby Shelton has been a player who has been on my radar since the very start of the season and I’ve noticed he has had a couple of top 15 finishes in his last four starts, including at TPC Boston last weekend when he closed out with a 63 to boost his confidence for this week. He is generally a decent driver of the ball and then gains plenty of strokes on approach and on the greens which is no bad thing this week. I’ve a hunch that he could be overpriced at 175/1 and will back him to see what he can deliver here.
Maverick McNealy is another who has been on my radar recently as evidenced when I backed him at the Wyndham Championship. I’ll have another go on him here because he is yet another player who has tasted minor level success around here while at college and in the amateur ranks and with so few players to have tasted this course in competitive play I believe that will be a positive. He wouldn’t be a forlorn hope anyway because I mentioned at the Wyndham that he has a couple of recent top 10s and must surely be inspired by all the winning his girlfriend is doing on the LPGA Tour. At a monster price I’ll pay to see what we get from him.
Tips
Back M.Wolff to win BMW Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 46.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back C.Champ to win BMW Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 71.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
Back C.Morikawa to win BMW Championship (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 23.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-7)
Back R.Shelton to win BMW Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 176.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-7)
Back M.McNealy to win BMW Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 251.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
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