A few weeks later than originally planned for reasons known to everyone by now, the European Tour finally gets to host its flagship event as the BMW PGA Championship will be staged at the Wentworth Club in Surrey.
This is the biggest regular season tournament on the European Tour and it was won by Danny Willett in fine style last year. He is here looking to defend the title against a very strong looking field, each of whom will be looking for a slice of the benefits of going well in a Rolex Series event like this.
Recent Winners
2019 – Danny Willett
2018 – Francesco Molinari
2017 – Alex Noren
2016 – Chris Wood
2015 – Byeong-Hun An
2014 – Rory McIlroy
2013 – Matteo Manassero
2012 – Luke Donald
2011 – Luke Donald
2010 – Simon Khan
The Course
The West Course at Wentworth is the home of this tournament and with the touches it has had done to it over the last 10 years it is now a stunning facility. The one thing that hasn’t changed around here is the tightness of the track. It is a treelined course with some undulations on the opening nine and some tough holes on the back nine. The track finishes with two of the best par 5s on the European Tour.
The course itself is a par 72 which measures 7,267 yards so it isn’t overly long but it is going to play longer than usual this week as there has been lots of rain in the lead up to the event and it is October so the air and ground will remain damp. We’re looking for good drivers of the ball this week. The rough will be juicier than normal and not trampled down by the usually packed crowds this event attracts. The two main statistics tend to be greens in regulation and scrambling so those who are more comfortable with the irons in hand should be favoured.
The Field
This is the best field of the European Tour season so far, at least since lockdown at least. Former Masters champion Patrick Reed comes over to give the event some international flavouring but many of the best of Britain and Europe are here. The English charge is led by the likes of Tommy Fleetwood, Justin Rose, Tyrrell Hatton and Matthew Fitzpatrick while Continental Europe is well represented by the likes Thomas Pieters, Bernd Wiesberger and Martin Kaymer.
There are other international players in the field who are in good touch in Erik van Rooyen and Lucas Herbert while recent UK Swing winners Renato Paratore, Sam Horsfield, Andy Sullivan and Romain Langasque are all in the field as is the Andalucia Masters and Irish Open champion John Carlin and the Scottish Open winner from last week Aaron Rai. Throw in the likes of Lee Westwood, Ian Poulter, Branden Grace, the defending champion Danny Willett, Eddie Pepperell and Matt Wallace and you’ll see this is a stacked field.
Market Leaders
We have joint favourites at 11/1 this week. They are Patrick Reed and Tommy Fleetwood, the two standout players in the field. Reed is on his second visit to Wentworth after finishing fourth here last year and he sets the standard to me. The only thing I don’t like about him is the price given the travelling. Tommy Fleetwood was in a play-off to win last week but under pressure down the stretch he putted very ordinary by his standards and his record here is mixed at best with no top 5 finish and only one top 15. He definitely isn’t for me here.
Matthew Fitzpatrick and Tyrrell Hatton are both 16/1 to win the tournament. Given how prominent they have been in Europe over the last 3-4 years it is amazing that neither of them have really contended for this title let alone won it. Hatton has missed the last two cuts here and is playing in Europe for the first time since lockdown so he’s an each enough swerve while Fitzpatrick has one top 10 in four visits on a course that is almost made for him. I’d favour him of the top four in the betting but he’s only fairly priced to me.
Justin Rose comes next in the betting at 18/1. He hasn’t really done it since lockdown either. He changed equipment halfway through the year and then the coach paid the price for his poor form in June but not much has changed since then. Rose does have a good recent record here with figures of 12-8 in his last two visits. He was also a runner up here in 2012 but he isn’t in that sort of form coming here. His class might see him hover on the leaderboard but I’d be surprised if he is playing well enough to win.
Shane Lowry has a belter of a record around here and he’ll be a popular bet at 22/1. He has four top 10s and three more top 15s in his last 10 visits to Wentworth so it is clear that he loves the place. His form coming in is a bit questionable though and he is getting to grips with new equipment which could be a reason why. Lowry missed the cut at Winged Foot and in Scotland last week and never really got prominent in Ireland in between then. It might be that this place brings his best form out and it wouldn’t be a complete surprise if he runs strongly but the price doesn’t really balance with the risk of hoping that is the case.
Main Bets
I’ll go with a couple of main bets this week, the first of which is a man who is extremely consistent and experienced around here in Lee Westwood. He has been the runner up in this tournament a couple of times and he has a boat load more top 10 and top 15 finishes around this track, not to mention his World Matchplay win here. What I’m saying is he knows how to play this course and the conditions might have brought it more into his hands. He’ll drive the ball well and he’ll hit a lot of greens but even if he doesn’t his short game has got a lot better. Westwood looks to be enjoying his golf at the minute. He was an early contender at Winged Foot and shared the 18 hole lead last week. He comes in here off the back of four top 20s in a row and looks like a man who will go in again sooner rather than later. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if that is this week.
Speaking of players who are in form it is hard to leave Lucas Herbert out of our thinking. The Dubai Desert Classic winner is a top driver of the golf ball both in length and accuracy and that is going to gain so much on the field this week. Him being on debut is a negative but it is only a minor one these days because the subtle changes were so recent. Herbert has top 10s coming in here in Ireland and Scotland and you’ve got to think had the conditions not been as savage on the Saturday last week he would have won with a bit in hand. He can make up for that here though at a n acceptable price.
Outsiders
I’ll go with four outsiders at big prices with the first being the man who won for us in Ireland in John Catlin. The American also won at Valderrama which is a course that shares a lot of traits that this one does. There he was third in strokes gained from tee to green and that is a real feature of his game. He was also fourth in that discipline in Ireland so on a test of the long game he is sure to pass that you would feel. There is no better thing in any sport than confidence and Catlin will be carrying a lot of that, especially as he has won from the front and from a good way back. He isn’t someone who is going to overpower a course but strategy has won this from the short grass which is his modus operandi. Even in this elite field it feels like he has every chance.
Justin Harding ticks the right boxes to me here in terms of his long game. He was seventh from tee to green in terms of strokes gained over in Ireland a couple of weeks ago and he was in the top 20 for fairways hit in Scotland last week. Overall this season the South African sits in the top 20 for strokes gained tee to green so his long game is in pretty good order. That has already led him to a third placed finish at Valderrama and he was in decent nick in Ireland as well on similar tests to this one in terms of the scrutiny on the long game. The 2019 Qatar Masters winner was third in the British Masters so these testing conditions won’t fear him much. He’s another who should go well at a decent price.
Fabrizio Zanotti has been in good touch in recent times and this is not the first year I’ve talked up his credentials on these tight treelined tracks. He generally fares very well on them and was runner up to Matthew Fitzpatrick on a similar course at Woburn in the British Masters a few years ago. The Paraguayan has finished in the top 15 in two of the last four years here so Wentworth certainly isn’t going to hold too many fears for this tee to green star. Zanotti was seventh in Ireland a couple of weeks ago when he finished well and for periods of Saturday he was there or thereabouts in Scotland last week before the worst of the weather caught hold of him. On better terms this week I think he’ll go well.
It is only a couple of seasons ago that Shubhankar Sharma was winning twice on the European Tour and although he has been quiet for the last nine months or so he hasn’t lost any of his quality. A bit of trekking between Europe and America hasn’t done his game much good but there were signs in Scotland last week that he was hitting the ball a lot better and this is a guy who at his best is very solid from tee to green. That rang true here last year when he was inside the top 20 on debut here. Three of his four rounds were comfortably under par in Scotland last week and had he not been caught out in the wind and rain on the Saturday his challenge would have been a lot strong. He can make up for that here.
Tips
Back L.Westwood to win BMW PGA Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 36.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back F.Zanotti to win BMW PGA Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 111.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
Back L.Herbert to win BMW PGA Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 36.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back J.Catlin to win BMW PGA Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
Back J.Harding to win BMW PGA Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 111.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
Back S.Sharma to win BMW PGA Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-7)
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