The FedEx Cup playoffs begin on the European Tour this week when the leading 125 players on the points standing make their way to Massachusetts for The Northern Trust, where only the top 70 at the end of the week will keep their season alive.
The stakes get higher and higher from here on in so those who are outside the top 70 will need a big week to get in them and those in them will want one to give themselves the best chance of making it to the final event. Patrick Reed enhanced his chances last year when he won this title.
Recent Winners
2019 – Patrick Reed
2018 – Bryson DeChambeau
2017 – Dustin Johnson
2016 – Patrick Reed
2015 – Jason Day
2014 – Hunter Mahan
2013 – Adam Scott
2012 – Nick Watney
2011 – Dustin Johnson
2010 – Matt Kuchar
The Course
Reed will be defending his title on a completely different one to the one he won it on. He won last year at Liberty National whereas this year he’ll defend at TPC Boston. This track is no stranger to hosting playoff events. It held the Dell Technologies Championship, the second leg of the postseason and staged this tournament two years ago. It is a par 71 which measures 7,308 yards and we are likely to be looking at another low scoring week with an under par cut.
There is an element of course management needed around here and with the greens being on the smaller side a good short game is never a bad thing here, especially as some of the holes have significant false fronts on them. Placing the ball in the right areas off the tee and then let the irons and the shorter clubs get to work tends to be the recipe for success on this particular track. It is likely to be steamy so storms could present themselves which would make the course play long.
The Field
Nobody who was eligible to play has withdrawn so we have the top 125 players in the truncated season here looking for a big week. That includes Tiger Woods who has committed to the tournament, as well as the points leader Justin Thomas and the man who starts out at number two in the standings in the form of the recent USPGA Championship winner Collin Morikawa. Defending champion Patrick Reed is also here.
Pretty much anyone who is anyone is here so the last winner on this track, Bryson DeChambeau, Dustin Johnson, Webb Simpson Jason Day, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay are all here. One of the last men into the field was Jim Herman who had to win last week to get in and that is what he did. He is here looking to make it successive wins while the English charge is led by Paul Casey, Tommy Fleetwood and Tyrrell Hatton.
Market Leaders
It was a different version of Bryson DeChambeau that won around here two years ago but he and Justin Thomas are the 12/1 favourites to come out on top. Thomas is not convincing me in the final round at the minute and while it certainly wouldn’t be a surprise to me if he wins here, his performances in contention are enough to put me off him. I’m not convinced that for all his added power, DeChambeau has the touch required to get it done round here any longer. We’ve seen this bulky side of him make a lot of birdies but plenty of mistakes are mixed in. I’m not sure he can afford that here.
Two recent number ones are next in the betting at 14/1 when Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm come along at that price. My suspicion is that both men will have their better weeks later in the playoffs. McIlroy just isn’t doing it right now. He’s a pretty easy one to swerve. Rahm is less of a player to pass over but I’m not convinced that TPC Boston offers up the best uses of his skill set. He likes courses where length whittles the field down a little. That isn’t really here so I’ll pass on him as well.
Three men appear at 20/1 in the betting. They are Jason Day, Dustin Johnson and Xander Schauffele. I’ll come onto Day a little later but I’m not sure I want to be on Johnson here. The final round of the USPGA Championship still sticks in my mind and Johnson is better on the longer tracks so I can pass him over. Schauffele is always worthy of consideration in all the big tournaments but I wonder if he could do with it being slightly tougher this week.
Collin Morikawa is 22/1 to win this week but I think I’ll let him have a start as a major champion before I get back to riding his wave. This might not be the week to back him anyway as if there is a weakness, or rather not the strongest part of his game, then it comes in his short game which doesn’t quite match up to the rest of his talents through the bag. We often see first time major winners in any sport need a period of adjustment with the extra expectation and pressure on them. Morikawa could need that here so he isn’t for me.
Main Bets
Jason Day was one of my main bets at the USPGA Championship and for quite a while that week it looked like he would be the man to give us the winner of that tournament before Collin Morikawa duly did. Day has an excellent record around this golf course and is clearly rounding into some very nice form. He has had top seven finishes in his last four starts and spoke regularly at the USPGA about his game coming together nicely and the confidence returning. Day was high up in the greens hit at Harding Park and is always one of the best putters in any field. It feels like he is a win in waiting and I’ll take him to deliver that here.
Patrick Reed is another player who enjoys it around here and as the defending champion this week he has plenty going for him. Usually I wouldn’t go near a defending champion but with so little media allowed on site and no huge extra attention on them I think it is fine here. Reed is coming into form nicely and the one thing we know about him is that whatever happens he primes himself for the big events and rarely misses out in producing his best in them. He tuned up for the week with a good finish at the Wyndham last week and I like his chances here. He has an excellent short game and is a very good putter. He shouldn’t be far away at 28/1.
Outsiders
Doc Redman paced the field in fairways hit last week and he wasn’t too shabby on the greens either and that is a combination that could work very well around here. He isn’t the worst when it comes to strategy either so as a sleeper this week he has to like his chances. Redman sits inside the top 60 in the rankings so he should be safe enough to get into next week but a good week here could see him seal a berth in Atlanta for the Tour Championship in a couple of weeks. Confidence is never a bad thing and although he didn’t win the Wyndham, the way he played will serve him well and he looks a live outsider at 125/1.
Chez Reavie is a former runner up around here having come second to Webb Simpson in a playoff in 2011 and he has the skills to go well again here. He needs a big week because he is currently outside the top 70 in the rankings so if he wants to be at Olympia Fields next week he needs to make it inside the top 70. I don’t think Chez’s ranking does him justice though. He isn’t someone who can murder the longer tracks so he was affected more than most by the restructuring of the season because a lot of the shorter track events were canned. He showed glimpses of his best form in the WGC last month though and on that evidence he is a pretty live outsider here.
Zach Johnson was in my team of players at the Wyndham Championship last week and by placing he has paid for another bet on him this week. I like the way Zach and his game are trending and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he is a winner again before 2020 is out. Admittedly he won’t be winning on the insanely long tracks but a number of the fall events are on shorter courses and most crucially this one isn’t out of his comfort zone on the length front. We saw last week that his long game is in decent order and the short irons and putter look to be beginning to really fire up after the enforced break. He’s a monster price at 200/1 but this twice major champion isn’t without a chance.
Tips
Back J.Day to win The Northern Trust (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 21.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back P.Reed to win The Northern Trust (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back D.Redman to win The Northern Trust (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back C.Reavie to win The Northern Trust (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back Z.Johnson to win The Northern Trust (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 201.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
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