The UK Swing concludes on the European Tour this week when the bio-bubble moves back to the outskirts of Birmingham for the UK Championship which will take place at the wonderful setup at The Belfry in England.
This tournament, like a few others in the UK Swing, has been designed purely to get the golfers back out onto the course so there is no previous champion here but The Belfry has been used before and has an illustrious roll of honour of past winners.
The Course
The Belfry is no stranger to hosting professional golf. It held the Benson and Hedges International from 2000-2003 and then the British Masters between 2006 and 2008. It has also staged the Ryder Cup so the golf course stands up to scrutiny. It is a par 72 which measures 7,233 yards so it isn’t overly long but it will play that full yardage after a pretty hefty bout of rain brushed through this part of the world in the lead up to the event.
We’ve seen throughout the UK Swing that these famous tracks that have turned themselves into golfing holiday resorts have played pretty easy. Last week in Wales was the only one where the winning score was less than 18 under and that was only because of the weather so the first thing to look for is aggressive types who can take on the golf course. The greens here are traditionally pretty tiny so good strikers of the ball with the irons should move towards the top of the list.
The Field
I think it is fair to say that man for man we have the strongest field of the six-event UK Swing this week with a host of seasoned European Tour players mixed in with the next set of rising stars which should make for a good week of golf. With some players having finished their season in America and some bigger European Tour events looming on the horizon it stands to reason that the big names are heading to this part of the world.
That means we have players like the home professional Matt Wallace here this week. Other seasoned English stars teeing it up include the English Championship winner Andy Sullivan as well as Lee Westwood, Danny Willett, Ross Fisher and Eddie Pepperell among others. The cream of Europe includes Rasmus Hojgaard, Bernd Wiesberger, Martin Kaymer and Matthias Schwab. Gavin Green, Ryan Fox and Haotong Li add an international flavour to a very good field.
Market Leaders
It was a little surprising to see Rasmus Hojgaard as a 14/1 favourite for the tournament this week. He has had a wonderful UK Swing without winning a tournament and he has qualified for the US Open next month as a result. He has gone 2-6-3 for the three tournaments that he has played in the UK Swing and probably should have won the first two of those, or certainly had chances to do so. The fact he hasn’t got over the line in weaker fields than this is a concern and although he attacks the golf course he’s a little short to me this week.
Matt Wallace comes next in the betting at 16/1 and I’m surprised he isn’t the favourite to win here. He has been away playing in America where he put in a couple of good performances and he is the touring professional at The Belfry so there isn’t an inch of this golf course that he won’t know. If there is a criticism of Wallace it is that he doesn’t win as often as he should do but he has plenty going for him this week and he’s my idea of the winner here.
Matthias Schwab looked like he was going to win the Barracuda Championship on the PGA Tour earlier in the month but he couldn’t quite get it done late on however that showed that he is playing good golf and that he is scoring well, two things which will be needed around here. He has been knocking at the door for a maiden European Tour title for quite some time now but hasn’t yet got over the line. That is enough of a concern to ignore him at 18/1, although he is certainly respected this week.
Haotong Li, Bernd Wiesberger and Andy Sullivan come next in the betting at 20/1. I’ll expand on the chances of Wiesberger below but you would certainly have to respect Sullivan on what is a pretty local track for the man born a few miles from here in Nuneaton. He has already claimed the English Championship title at Hanbury Manor playing aggressive golf so it would be no surprise for him to go in again. Haotong Li just can’t seem to keep the hefty mistake off his scorecard at the minute so for that reason I’ll pass him over. It is 25/1 bar.
Main Bets
As I alluded to above, my idea of the winner this week is Matt Wallace. Wallace is an excellent player who at 45 in the world is the third highest ranked player on show this week, just behind Lee Westwood and Danny Willett. I think Wallace is better suited to this course though. He is the professional here so that in itself is a major positive and he is a naturally aggressive player which will suit this track as well. Wallace showed his class when he was fourth in The Memorial last month and his scoring power when just outside the top 10 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. If he has the form of the former with him here he could blow this lot away but the latter form should be enough too. I think he’ll take all the beating this week.
If Wallace is to be beaten it could be that Bernd Wiesberger is the man to do it. The Austrian has been campaigning at a much higher level than this at late and it wasn’t too long ago he was four under par halfway through the USPGA Championship. He found the going a little tough in the end that week but that showed he is hitting the ball nicely and his record in Europe over the last 18 months or so is exceptional. He has won three times in that period and finished in the top 10 on another five occasions so he continues to thrive at this level. His long game is always good and he holes putts too so he looks a big runner to me this week.
Outsiders
I’ll go with a couple of outsiders as well. The first of those is the man who lost out to Rasmus Hojgaard in Mauritius just prior to Christmas in Antoine Rozner. The Frenchman has already featured nicely on the UK Swing and had chances to win the Hero Open going into the final day which thankfully as we were on the winner that week he didn’t convert. He is an aggressive player whose long game is his strength but with few players in the field having substantial knowledge of the greens this week he might not be as disadvantaged on the dancefloors as he might normally be. At 10 in strokes gained tee to green and 30 on approach, Rozner is primed to go well if he can hole a few putts.
A couple of weeks ago I took Romain Wattel to have a big week but then he had to come out of the tournament after Alex Levy tested positive for Covid. He has done his isolation now and tees it up this week so it would be silly of me not to get involved and then watch him go well without my money on him. Wattel shot 65 to open up at Hanbury Manor on his only start on the UK Swing though and that shows he can be aggressive and score well. He is a sweet striker of the ball so in these soft conditions there is nothing stopping him from going flag hunting and if he can fire the putter up he could also be right in the mix too.
Tips
Back M.Wallace to win UK Championship (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 17.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-6)
PLACED – Back B.Wiesberger to win UK Championship (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 19.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-6)
Back them here:
Back A.Rozner to win UK Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 111.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-6)
Back R.Wattel to win UK Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 201.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
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