It might be three months later than we are used to but the second major of the year is here as the biggest and best in the game of golf head to New York to prepare to take on one of the hardest courses in the world in the US Open.
Gary Woodland won this tournament 15 months ago when he took advantage of nice conditions at Pebble Beach. He is here to defend the title but will do so on a very different track to the one which he won on.
Recent Winners
2019 – Gary Woodland
2018 – Brooks Koepka
2017 – Brooks Koepka
2016 – Dustin Johnson
2015 – Jordan Spieth
2014 – Martin Kaymer
2013 – Justin Rose
2012 – Webb Simpson
2011 – Rory McIlroy
2010 – Graeme McDowell
The Course
The famous Winged Foot Golf Club in New York is the venue for the tournament this week. This is the first time the US Open will have been held here since 2006 when Geoff Ogilvy won after Phil Mickelson and Colin Montgomerie both double bogeyed the last hole. Ogilvy’s winning score was +5 and everywhere you look and read suggests we are looking at an over par winning score here too with tight fairways, dense rough and greens that are firm and fast and among the hardest in the world to putt on.
Length has often been the deciding advantage in recent US Opens but those in the know seem to think that won’t be the case here. Playing from the short grass will be of more importance. We are looking for players who can control their iron shorts because these greens have huge slopes on them. Keeping the ball under the hole will be important as will scrambling. In fact the entire game will be tested on one of the hardest courses in the world.
The Field
Usually there are qualifying events for this tournament all over the place but with Covid-19 stopping golf in many places that isn’t the case this year. Therefore the field is a more select one and is down to 144 players as a result. Pretty much anyone who is anyone is here including the defending champion Gary Woodland as well as the FedEx Cup champion crowned a couple of weeks ago in Dustin Johnson.
Tiger Woods hasn’t been seen much in 2020 but he is in the field here as is the only major champion of the year so far in Collin Morikawa. Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele and Bryson DeChambeau are some of the other leading contenders who are teeing it up while Phil Mickelson is in the field looking to go one better than he did in 2006 and finally complete his own personal Grand Slam. It is fair to say that this is a loaded field as you would expect.
Market Leaders
Dustin Johnson is the favourite to win the tournament at 17/2. He is the form man going in having won the FedEx Cup a couple of weeks ago but that was a real career aim for him and he pushed very hard during the play-offs to win that so it might be that he is carrying a little mental fatigue even allowing for the fact that he had last week off to recover. The other issue with backing Johnson is for all he’s done in his career he only has one major to his name and he’s bungled the chance of a few more, including the USPGA recently when he led after 54 holes. That makes him too short in my book even allowing for his length advantage.
There have been three tournaments played in US Open conditions since the lockdown and Jon Rahm has won two of them so he is going to be very popular at 10/1. It might be significant that the one he didn’t win was the USPGA Championship where he ended up T13 after a good final round. Rahm ticks a lot of boxes here. He has length and touch around the greens and I would suggest that even though he isn’t the favourite, the Spaniard is the man to beat.
Justin Thomas is the 14/1 third favourite. He is a big time player but I’ve never been convinced his game has been suited to a US Open test. He is a little wayward off the tee for my liking and I’ve never been absolutely on point with his short game. As a result he doesn’t have a top five in a major since he won the 2017 USPGA Championship and that pretty much signals the level his game is at. He’s definitely not for me and certainly not at this price.
The USPGA champion Collin Morikawa, Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele are all next in the betting at 16/1. The claims of Morikawa are obvious and I’m a big fan of his but 16/1 might just be on the shorter side of what I would like in terms of price. I certainly wouldn’t be surprised if he wins but winning successive majors is never easy. Schauffele also feels a little short although his record in majors over the last three years is up there with anyone. He hasn’t won one though which is the difference. McIlroy doesn’t look like he’s playing well enough to win a US Open on a tough, firm track like this.
Main Bets
Jason Day was my main bet at the USPGA Championship and he is my main bet here as well. While his form since the PGA hasn’t been the best, I wonder just how motivated he would have been because he would have needed a miracle to make it through to East Lake. Not actually making it there will have given him a chance to rest his body if it needed a rest and to get some practice in to tighten up parts that he wanted to tighten up. I suspect this is going to be a short game week so it is encouraging that he led the PGA Tour in strokes gained around the green last season. Day is long enough off the tee and if he can keep it in the short grass and give his short game the chance to come through he could take a lot of beating here. He always likes a challenge which I think is going to be important this week. He looks a very good bet.
I’m also going to take his Australian compatriot Adam Scott who should be perfectly suited to the test this week. We know all about his driving ability. He has been one of the best drivers of the golf ball for quite some time and that hasn’t changed. Where he has improved markedly is in the short game department. He was ninth in strokes gained putting on the PGA Tour last season and seventh in scrambling from the rough which shows his touch has improved. He has gone on record as saying he is putting as well now as he has ever done and we have to take him on his work for that. If his short game stays good then the quality of his long game gives him every chance here.
The other main bet for me this week is Matthew Fitzpatrick. I’ve always thought Fitzpatrick was a good player on tough golf courses and he has shown that this season. He has proved that by finishing in the top 10 at Bay Hill, The Memorial, the WGC at Southwind and the BMW Championship, arguably the four toughest tracks of the season so far. The reason for that is because Fitzpatrick doesn’t miss many fairways and he has a wonderful short game so this track should really suit him. As long as he can hit the ground running, which sometimes he can be guilty of not doing, the Englishman should be right there come Sunday.
Outsiders
Straight hitters with a good short game form my idea of the outsiders this week and there are three which fit the bill at three figure prices. The first of those is Kevin Kisner who is one of the best putters in the world. They say Winged Foot is on a par with Carnoustie for toughness so it can only be a positive that Kisner was in the final group on Sunday when that track held The Open a couple of years ago. Kisner comes in here off the back of six top 25 finishes which includes the USPGA Championship and that scary tough BMW Championship where only pushing it on the final day caught him out. His short game and putting holds up with anyone and if he can navigate the length of this course without losing his accuracy he could be a big player.
Chez Reavie doesn’t necessarily fare best on long courses but at the same time if this place is as firm and fast as the USGA like it won’t play to anything like its yardage so that should make him feel better. What he lacks in length he makes up for in accuracy which is definitely no bad thing this week. Reavie has an excellent short game and given that he usually excels on shorter tracks he will be high up in terms of course management and things like that. Although Reavie doesn’t specialise in long courses he held top 15 finishes in the USPGA Championships at Bellerive Country Club and Bethpage Black which are top efforts. He warmed up nicely for this with a top 3 in the Safeway last week and could very well outrun his odds here.
Byeong-Hun An is my final outside bet. He is another excellent driver of the ball but it is his short game which has caught the eye recently and as long as he is mentally ready for the tough challenge then I fancy a decent week from him. Am has top 10s this year in Phoenix and The Honda Classic and was just outside that at both the WGC St Jude when he was in the final group on Sunday and the BMW Championship where he finished four under for the weekend which was no mean effort. He also closed out the PGA Championship with a 64 so when he gets it right he gets it very right. I’ll pay to see if he can string rounds together here.
Tips
Back J.Day to win US Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 36.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-10)
Back him here:
Back A.Scott to win US Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 46.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-9)
Back M.Fitzpatrick to win US Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 56.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-9)
Back C.Reavie to win US Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-9)
Back them here:
Back K.Kisner to win US Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Bet365 (1/5 1-8)
Back B-H.An to win US Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-11)
Copyright secured by Digiprove © 2020
