It looked for so long as though the US Open would not be able to take place this year due to the Covid pandemic and the numerous travel restrictions still in place around the world, but the tournament does get underway as scheduled on Monday.
Rafael Nadal prevailed in the two week New York extravaganza last year but he has turned down the chance to defend his title so we are guaranteed a different champion on the second Sunday of the competition.
Recent Winners
2019 – Rafael Nadal
2018 – Novak Djokovic
2017 – Rafael Nadal
2016 – Stan Wawrinka
2015 – Novak Djokovic
2014 – Marin Cilic
2013 – Rafael Nadal
2012 – Andy Murray
2011 – Novak Djokovic
2010 – Rafael Nadal
The Format
Although there was some contention about not playing the tournament over five sets with the sport only just back, the change was resisted so it is usual Grand Slam rules with every match the best of five sets throughout. This is one of those Slams where the final set will be decided by a tiebreak. There have been very withdrawals but 128 men have made it into the draw and have already been placed into the bracket. The tournament is a straight knockout with the champion crowned on the second Sunday of the event.
Top Quarter
Novak Djokovic is the number one seed for this tournament and as a result he headlines the top quarter. He may very well go into the event unbeaten for 2020 and having won five of the last seven Slams which have had stronger fields, he looks the man to beat. Seven other seeds will be looking to deny him from this section though. They are Jan-Lennard Struff, Pablo Carreno Busta, John Isner, Denis Shapovalov, Taylor Fritz, Filip Krajinovic and David Goffin so there is a decent mix of player there.
There are some decent names among those who aren’t seeded for the tournament. Reilly Opelka was a quarter finalist in the Cincinnati event in the lead up to this and looks in good form while Gilles Simon, Steve Johnson, Damir Dzumhur and Kyle Edmund are no strangers to being seeded in Slams but have slid down the rankings a little too much to be among the elite for this event. That doesn’t mean to say there isn’t a deep run in some of them.
Second Quarter
The ATP Finals winner Stefanos Tsitsipas is the top seed in the second quarter. He hasn’t yet made a Slam final so that is the very least he’ll be looking for here and he has had a decent run in the Masters 1000 event in the lead up to this tournament. If he is to make it out of this section he’ll have to overcome the challenge of seeded players such as Borna Coric, Dusan Lajovic, Christian Garin, Diego Schwartzman, Hubert Hurkacz, Adrian Mannarino and Alexander Zverev so the Greek star should fancy his chances.
The twice major finalist Kevin Anderson is the biggest name among those who are not seeded for the tournament. He has a tasty clash with Zverev in the first round. Other standout names in this quarter include Jack Sock, Pablo Cuevas, Juan Londero and Albert Ramos-Vinolas who will all be looking to take advantage of a potential opening of the draw to go deep over the course of the fortnight.
Third Quarter
The beaten finalist of last year is the headline attraction in the third quarter of the draw as Daniil Medvedev looks to launch his quest to go one better from this part of the draw. Another man who made a big breakthrough in his career last year was Matteo Berrettini and he is the man seeded to meet the Russian in the quarter final. The other seeded players in this section are Casper Ruud, Andrey Rublev, Grigor Dimitrov, Nikolay Basilashvili and Guido Pella.
There are a few names which stand out among those who do not have a seeding by their name. Queens champion of last year Feliciano Lopez is one of them while John Millman is another after he saw off Roger Federer here in the past. Frances Tiafoe has big game as does Jeremy Chardy while youngsters Ugo Humbert and Mackenzie McDonald will look to show that the next gen have what it takes to deliver on this stage.
Bottom Quarter
Australian Open finalist Dominic Thiem is the top seed in the bottom quarter of the draw. He will be hoping to go one better than he did in Melbourne but he doesn’t have the best New York record so that will keep the other seeds in this section interested. They are the Cincinnati semi-finalist Roberto Bautista Agut, finalist of that tournament in Milos Raonic, Alex de Minaur, Karen Khachanov, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Dan Evans and Marin Cilic so this is a big servers quarter.
That is exaggerated by the appearance of Ivo Karlovic in it as a non-seed while the biggest unseeded name of the lot is in this quarter as well in Andy Murray. There are plenty of other appealing names among the unseeded players here. They include Jannik Sinner, home hope Sam Querrey, Tennys Sandgren, Miomir Kecmanovic, Vasek Posposil and Richard Gasquet. This quarter should throw up some decent matches for sure.
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Outright Betting
Milos Raonic looked to be crunching the ball nicely in the Masters 1000 event last week and with the courts playing quicker here he has to be a significant factor in this tournament you would think. The speed of the courts will allow Raonic to win a lot of points behind his big first serve and keep his early matches relatively quick which is going to be important here because there are a lot of players going into this event undercooked and if they get embroiled in a four or five hour marathon there won’t be much left in the tank. Raonic knows how to make Grand Slam finals having done it previously at Wimbledon. Having tuned up for this event nicely last week he can take advantage of the draw and go deep again in this.
Andrey Rublev didn’t have the best week to warm up for this when he lost in the first round of the Cincinnati event last week but he lost to Dan Evans so it wasn’t like he lost to a mug. Even without the ideal preparation I can’t ignore him at 50/1 with his draw. He has a tricky match against Jeremy Chardy in the opening round but if he can negotiate that the toughest test on paper up to a possible quarter final with his countryman Medvedev would be Matteo Berrettini who is not exactly consistent or reliable at this level himself. The harder part of the third quarter where Rublev is in is the lower part of it so should the Russian get to the quarter final he might be facing a tired opponent. Rublev has made the second week twice in the last four goes in New York and so he feels a big price here.
Quarter Betting
Given that Novak Djokovic doesn’t look 100% physically I’ll take him on in this tournament but rather than take him on with outright bets from players in his half I’ll do it by hunting down the value in the quarter betting in the top half in the hope that he does go out and we get the chance to push for two winners. In the top quarter the 25/1 on Filip Krajinovic could be worth supporting. He was a quarter finalist in the Cincinnati event last week and didn’t do a whole lot wrong in defeat to Milos Raonic. In fact for a lot of that match he was the better player and looked to be hitting the ball nicely. He showed that earlier in the event when he walloped Dominic Thiem 62 61. Djokovic aside there isn’t a whole lot in this quarter so I’ll take the former Paris Masters finalist in this top quarter.
In the second quarter, when one of Alexander Zverev or Kevin Anderson isn’t going to make it past the opening afternoon there could be a chance for someone deeper down the list to come out of this quarter. Stefanos Tsitsipas is the favourite for this quarter but he always strikes me as an uneasy favourite at this level so instead I’ll take the ninth seeded Diego Schwartzman who has twice been to the quarter final of this tournament and who clearly likes New York. He didn’t go so well last week but Reilly Opelka served like a machine against him and that happens from time to time. Schwartzman will need peeling off the court but in a wide open quarter he looks good value to me at 16s.
Tips
Back M.Raonic to win US Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 23.00 with Boylesports (1/2 1-2)
Back A.Rublev to win US Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Boylesports (1/2 1-2)
Back them here:
Back F.Krajinovic to win 1st Quarter for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with William Hill
Back him here:
Back D.Schwartzman to win 2nd Quarter for a 1/10 stake at 17.00 with Betfred
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