As is the case in the snooker world at present, when one tournament concludes another begins the next day as the 128 players on the tour descend on Cardiff for the Welsh Open, the final leg of the Home Nations.
Neil Robertson won the World Grand Prix on Sunday night so he’ll head to the Welsh capital in confident mood as he looks to defend the title he won 12 months ago, but there are dangers everywhere you look.
Recent Winners
2019 – Neil Robertson
2018 – John Higgins
2017 – Stuart Bingham
2016 – Ronnie O’Sullivan
2015 – John Higgins
2014 – Ronnie O’Sullivan
2013 – Stephen Maguire
2012 – Ding Junhui
2011 – John Higgins
2010 – John Higgins
The Format
I would imagine most know the format of these Home Nations events by now but for those who don’t the first four rounds of the tournament are played over the best of seven frames, with the third and fourth rounds taking place on Thursday. The quarter finals are over the best of nine frames with the semi-finals up to the best of 11. The champion will be determined over two sessions on Sunday in a race to nine. The draw has been already drawn and the event is a straight knockout.
Top Quarter
Neil Robertson is the number one seed this week as the defending champion and he goes to Cardiff as the man to beat too having won two tournaments in the last three and made the final of the other but surely that is going to catch up with him. He doesn’t necessarily have the toughest draw here though with the other three members of the top 16 in this quarter being Kyren Wilson, UK champion Ding Junhui and his good friend Joe Perry, who he beat in the quarter final in Cheltenham last week.
To be fair there are some decent names outside the top 16 in this quarter including the best of them in Ali Carter, the finalist at The Masters last month. World Grand Prix semi-finalist Tom Ford is in here too as are Marco Fu, Liang Wenbo, Noppon Saengkham and Jimmy Robertson, who are all capable of big weeks. Chinese youngster Yuan Sijun, home ace Jackson Page and the experienced pair of Ricky Walden and Alan McManus all catch the eye here too.
Second Quarter
All eyes will be on this quarter this week as Ronnie O’Sullivan needs to win it if he is to force his way into the Players Championship in a couple of weeks. He would still have the shootout if he doesn’t make the semi-final here but he won’t want to be relying on that. One problem O’Sullivan has is he will have to go through the man who has won two of the three Home Nations events to date in Mark Selby. The other two members of the top 16 in this quarter are Jack Lisowski and Dave Gilbert, the two men Selby beat in previous finals this term.
This is a proper tasty quarter because it has World Grand Prix finalist Graeme Dott in it while the World Open finalist Thepchaiya Un-Nooh is also in this section as well. Home star Matthew Stevens looked in decent form last week and he’s in here as well, as are the likes of Kurt Maflin, Matthew Selt, Zhao Xintong, Li Hang, Michael White and Anthony Hamilton, who all have the class to go a fair way in this tournament.
Third Quarter
The Welsh star Mark Williams heads up this third quarter but we all know about his foot problem so what condition he’ll be in will be interesting. Two former champions with good records here are also in this quarter in John Higgins and the man who lost out in the final last year as well, Stuart Bingham. The bang out of form Barry Hawkins is the other member of the top 16 who is in this quarter. He really needs a decent spin in Cardiff.
Once again there are some top players outside the top 16 here including the Riga Masters champion from the beginning of the season in Yan Bingtao. Xiao Guodong is a seasoned campaigner these days while Scott Donaldson is another man in good form. Luca Brecel, Sam Craigie and Martin Gould all have the credentials to be dangerous while the experienced set of players such as Mark King, Ken Doherty, Michael Holt and Anthony McGill can still deliver the goods when it counts.
Bottom Quarter
We get right down to the bottom of the draw to see the world champion Judd Trump slotted into the event. He is seeded to meet Mark Allen in the quarter final but the man from Northern Ireland will need to turn his form around if that is going to happen. Shaun Murphy and the UK Championship finalist Stephen Maguire, a two-time winner of this event, are also in this bottom quarter looking for a big week.
It is also the quarter where the Welsh fans will be hoping that Ryan Day gets back on track from. Dominic Dale is another home player in this quarter. Trump will need to be careful in the first round as he has drawn the giant killer himself James Cahill while the likes of Hossein Vafaei, Gary Wilson, Zhou Yuelong, Jimmy White and Andrew Higginson will all be looking for big weeks to put on some significant ranking points.
Betting
As ever I’ll go with one from each quarter in a bid to get a couple going deep and seeing what comes from them. In the top quarter I’m taking Neil Robertson on with Tom Ford. Ford has hit two maximums this season and you don’t hit them if you are not cueing well and not a heavy scorer. He is getting better too having made the semi-final of the World Grand Prix last week and he didn’t do a whole lot wrong in that match against Graeme Dott either. These best of sevens suit his game as he showed when making the semi-final of the English Open and in a quarter which could open right up 150/1 is too big to resist.
In the second quarter the 14/1 on Mark Selby winning a third Home Nations title of the season is just too big. I suspect it is this price because winning two in the same season is unlikely and three even less so but in the same way that heads could easily come up a third time in a row Selby could well go in again here. The fact he has won two already should be a positive not a negative. He might have to deal with O’Sullivan along the way but he did just that in Scotland. Had he not lost a deciding frame in the quarter final to John Higgins in Northern Ireland, Selby could be up for the £1m bonus. The fact he isn’t means he is free to go after another event and 14/1 is too big on a class act.
Scott Donaldson might be a little disappointed that he hasn’t drawn Ding Junhui in the first round having beaten him in the last three events but he’ll soon get over that when he sees the quarter he has landed himself in. It is the one featuring Mark Williams, who has to be taken on in his present condition, Stuart Bingham who has looked ordinary outside of The Masters, Barry Hawkins who couldn’t make 20 last week and John Higgins who has been hit and miss. Donaldson made the quarter final of the Scottish Open and he has those three wins over Ding Junhui since the turn of the year so we know he’s playing well. At three figures he’s overpriced too.
Stephen Maguire might be in a quarter with Judd Trump but the man who has won this tournament twice should not be 80/1 here. That is especially the case when he showed he still has what it takes to come through the draw when he made the final of the UK Championship where he ran into Ding in top form. Maguire seems to love it in Wales having won this event twice and he showed at The Masters when he was 5-1 down to Neil Robertson that he is eager for silverware. He could easily have chucked that one in but he came through to win 6-5 before running head first into an inspired Dave Gilbert. Only good performances are beating Maguire but if Trump doesn’t beat him there aren’t many in his half capable of those sorts of matches. The Scot is overpriced pure and simple.
Tips
Back T.Ford to win Welsh Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Betfair (1/2 1-2)
Back S.Donaldson to win Welsh Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Betfair (1/2 1-2)
Back them here:
Back M.Selby to win Welsh Open (e/w) for a 2/10 stake at 15.00 with Coral (1/2 1-2)
Back S.Maguire to win Welsh Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Coral (1/2 1-2)
Back them here:
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