One of the better regular PGA Tour events takes place this week as the Arnold Palmer Invitational sees a lot of the great and good of the game of golf heading around Florida for a tournament which is prestigious because of the name it carries.
Tyrrell Hatton was the man who lifted the trophy last year and he will be looking to make a successful defence of his crown although he is up against a decent field, plenty of whom arrive in very good form.
Recent Winners
2020 – Tyrrell Hatton
2019 – Francesco Molinari
2018 – Rory McIlroy
2017 – Marc Leishman
2016 – Jason Day
2015 – Matt Every
2014 – Matt Every
2013 – Tiger Woods
2012 – Tiger Woods
2011 – Martin Laird
The Course
We are back at the famous and wonderful Bay Hill Golf Club and Lodge this week where the best players in the world battle it out on a par 72 track which measures 7,454 yards once again. The scoring was very high here last year and the winds had a lot to do with that. The forecast is for a bit of breeze deeper into the weekend which could keep those teeing it up for the weekend honest to say the least.
They say this is an all-round test of golf and that is perfectly true. There is the belief it has got easier off the tee but with the amount of water waiting for errant tee shots around here I’m not so sure that is the case. Even if it is they have started to grow the rough and firm up the greens in recent times so you want to be hitting in from the fairways. It is very much a second shot golf course because precision into these strongly guarded greens is a necessity. They are small greens though so scrambling still remains another key requirement around here.
The Field
There have been stronger fields go to post in this tournament than this one but with this event falling in between the WGC and The Players you would expect a few of the bigger names to take this week off as they manage their workload ahead of The Masters which is closing in at quite a pace. There are a couple of standout names though. Those being Rory McIlroy and Bryson DeChambeau, who it will be interesting to watch to see if he reins it in a little.
There are plenty of other great players in the field this week. The English charge is headed by the defending champion Tyrrell Hatton but includes Matt Fitzpatrick, Paul Casey, Tommy Fleetwood and Lee Westwood while the continental European challenge is headed by Viktor Hovland and the former champion Francesco Molinari. No American has won this event in the last five years. Patrick Reed, Billy Horschel, Jason Kokrak and Sam Burns will be out to change that. Sungjae Im, Louis Oosthuizen, Jason Day and Hideki Matsuyama lead a very strong international contingent into battle this week.
Market Leaders
Rory McIlroy is the favourite to win the tournament this week. He had a decent enough WGC last week without ever looking like he was going to win the event. He struck it well but there are just too many approach, short game and putting errors in McIlroy’s game right now for me to even consider him at 8/1 let alone actually back him. You should never rule out a golfer on a track they’ve won on but if McIlroy wins then so be it. He isn’t for me.
Viktor Hovland and Bryson DeChambeau share second favouritism here. Hovland has a lot to like about him. He is in excellent form and will be a superstar but he needs to sort out his short game before I get involved in him on tracks like this. We saw a major weakness in that department last week and you don’t get away with that here. DeChambeau showed signs of reining the power in last week. He needs to do that here but until it becomes a clear strategy he certainly isn’t for me where accuracy is so important.
The defending champion Tyrrell Hatton comes next in the betting at 16/1. Regular readers will know I don’t do defending champions as there is just too much scrutiny on their time in the lead up to events but if I id I’d consider Hatton because his ion play is usually immaculate and we know he’s playing well having opened the year with a win in Abu Dhabi. He might be just a fair price for those who do want to back him but I’m not one.
Patrick Reed is 20/1 to win the tournament. He is in decent form in terms of his results but I always feel there is a wayward drive or a loose iron shot too many in him which brings a big score on the card that he can’t recover from. He has a wizard of a short game but that can only take you so far with the rough like it is around here. He is another one who is to be respected but is no more than a fair price really.
Main Bets
With this being the only tournament on this week I’m going to allow myself three main bets. The first of them is Matthew Fitzpatrick who probably things Bay Hill owes him one after he got reeled in by Francesco Molinari a couple of weeks ago. Fitzpatrick is a very good player on tough courses and has gone on record as saying he loves this place. I’m not surprised because he is one of the best ball strikers in the game. He hasn’t been out of the top 20 in his last three starts, one of which at Riviera he had every chance of winning with nine holes to go. He has successive top 10s here and his all-round game looks in great touch. He could take some stopping here.
Paul Casey has been in pristine form since the turn of the year with his four tournaments yielding finishes of 8-1-12-5, those figures bookended by a couple of American events. Casey has had a couple of weeks off since his fifth placed finish at Pebble Beach so unlike a lot of players he will be arriving here fresh without being rusty. Casey is a monster from tee to green at the minute. He has ranked inside the top five for the key statistics for this place in his last three starts and as we saw in Dubai he is full of confidence. Casey has a top 10 here and his two wins at the Valspar tell us he likes the Floridian climate. I think he’s a leading player at 25/1.
I was on Francesco Molinari when he won here two years ago and while there are legitimate concerns over his putting at the minute I’m happy to be on him again. One place where there are no problems at all is his tee to green game. That is always immaculate which is why he won here two years ago. He putted incredibly then and although his form with the short stick has tailed off in recent times he wouldn’t be the first player to go back to a course where he has good memories and start putting the lights out of a place. That is the only weakness in his game so if these greens do inspire him he’s a big runner at 28/1.
Outsiders
I’ll play three at triple figure prices as well with the first of those being Matthew NeSmith, a player who has gained shots from tee to green like they are going out of fashion in recent weeks. His last four totals in that statistic read 7.061, 5.5497, 8.301 and 4.771 and on a course where the emphasis is on ball striking and keeping the ball on the short grass if he continues to hit the ball that well he is going to have half the field covered quickly. It isn’t like he has been terrible on and around the greens either. His putting hasn’t been the best at Torrey Pines and Riviera but they are tough places to putt so I’ll let him have that. At 100/1 we are basically asking for a slightly above average week on the greens given the quality of his long game for him to be right in the mix.
You could say much of the same about Emiliano Grillo who continues to impress from tee to green and in the ball striking department. If he has an above average week on the greens anywhere then he is going to be right in the mix and take some stopping. He actually putted quite nicely in Puerto Rico last week which will hopefully give him some confidence in that department here. He has a top 10 round here despite a third round 78 so we know he can play the course well and at 100/1 I think he is worth including in the staking plan given his positive putting display last week.
My final bet is going to be a real outsider in the form of the Ryder Cup captain Steve Stricker. It might be that at this stage of his career Stricker can’t contend at this level but he showed that wasn’t the case when he was right there in Phoenix last month. Since then he has teed it up on the Champions Tour to decent effect so he is going to be coming here both high on confidence and hitting the ball very sweetly. We know Stricker remains one of the best putters out there so if he can continue to hit the ball well, and be anything like he was at Phoenix where he ranked inside the top 10 in strokes gained from tee to green, on approach and around the green and in the top 20 in strokes gained putting, he has every chance of going well here.
Tips
Back M.Fitzpatrick to win Arnold Palmer Invitational (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 23.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back P.Casey to win Arnold Palmer Invitational (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back M.NeSmith to win Arnold Palmer Invitational (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
Back F.Molinari to win Arnold Palmer Invitational (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back E.Grillo to win Arnold Palmer Invitational (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back S.Stricker to win Arnold Palmer Invitational (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 251.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
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