The BMW PGA Championship, which takes place at Wentworth this week, is always the biggest tournament on the European Tour calendar but the 2021 renewal is bigger than usual because it is the last event before Padraig Harrington confirms his team for the Ryder Cup.
Tyrrell Hatton already knows he is heading to Whistling Straits but before he goes he has to defend the title he won here last year. This is a Rolex Series event so it goes without saying that he’ll be defending against an elite field.
Recent Winners
2020 – Tyrrell Hatton
2019 – Danny Willett
2018 – Francesco Molinari
2017 – Alex Noren
2016 – Chris Wood
2015 – Byeong-Hun An
2014 – Rory McIlroy
2013 – Matteo Manassero
2012 – Luke Donald
2011 – Luke Donald
The Course
The West Course at Wentworth is the home of this tournament and with the touches it has had done to it over the last 10 years it is now a stunning facility. The one thing that hasn’t changed around here is the tightness of the track. It is a treelined course with some undulations on the opening nine and some tough holes on the back nine. The track finishes with two of the best par 5s on the European Tour.
The course itself is a par 72 which measures 7,267 yards so it isn’t overly long and with very little rain around in the lead up to the competition it probably isn’t even going to play to that yardage. We’re looking for good drivers of the ball this week and those with a wonderful iron game. These greens aren’t the easiest to find and they are full of undulations so the leaderboard tends to be packed with good approach players. The two main statistics tend to be greens in regulation and scrambling so those who are more comfortable with the irons in hand should be favoured.
The Field
This is an absolutely stacked field with the tournament taking place after the PGA Tour season has concluded which means that some stars of that particular tour can get involved here. The big picture is the Ryder Cup though and with that in mind a lot of the attention will be on Shane Lowry, currently the last man into the team, and Bernd Wiesberger, the player most likely to force his way in. A number of players can still get in with a win here including the likes of Victor Perez, Robert MacIntyre and Thomas Detry.
This is a tournament that mixes the stars of European with the pick of the PGA Tour so we have the likes of Viktor Hovland, Alex Noren, Billy Horschel, Shane Lowry and Justin Rose all coming over while the best of Europe include Tyrrell Hatton, Tommy Fleetwood, Matt Fitzpatrick, Lee Westwood, Sam Horsfield, Francesco Molinari and Rasmus Hojgaard. Other notables in this lit up field include Adam Scott, Henrik Stenson, Branden Grace and Christiaan Bezuidenhout.
Market Leaders
Viktor Hovland was competing in the Tour Championship for $15 million on the PGA Tour but he has arrived over in Europe for the flagship event of the season ahead of joining the Ryder Cup team later in the month. He is the 10/1 favourite to win the tournament here. Hovland has only played this tournament once but he finished T11 in it and comes here as a better player this time around. The only concern would be the amount of golf he has played recently but if his putter holds up he looks to have a great chance.
Shane Lowry has a wonderful record here. He should have won the tournament in 2014 but he has only been outside the top 15 around here once since 2012 and he was also fourth in 2011. There is something about Wentworth that brings out the best in the Irishman and he’ll be hoping that is the case this week as he looks to cement his spot at the Ryder Cup. His record here would suggest that 16/1 on him to win the tournament is good value but I don’t want to be involved in anyone who is playing with Ryder Cup pressure on their shoulders here as that is a whole different type of thing.
Three men will tee off this week as 20/1 shots. 2017 champion Alex Noren and the defending champion Tyrrell Hatton are two of them with the classy Matthew Fitzpatrick the other. I don’t do defending champions so that rules Hatton out but even if I did his form is nothing to write home about and he hasn’t been the most active over the last few months. I’ll come onto Noren shortly but Fitzpatrick merits respect at his best form and has the profile that he really should go well here.
There was an announcement on Twitter earlier in the week that Tommy Fleetwood was being welcomed into the Ryder Cup team and he seemed to take inspiration from that so I’m expecting a good week from the popular Briton. He only has one top 10 around here though, which is a surprise for someone whose long game is usually so good but it is enough of a concern for me to look elsewhere. It is 28/1 those named.
Main Bets
You can make a case for a number of star players around here but for me Alex Noren stands out like a sore thumb. He has the ideal combination of course form and current form. The latter is very welcome and the former is probably to be expected. I say that because this track is perfect for him which is why he not only won in 2017 but also finished third in 2018. Noren was a putt away from competing at the Tour Championship last week so he had a good season on the PGA Tour and that week off might give him the edge on the other PGA Tour stars who are here such as Viktor Hovland and Billy Horschel who were playing last week. The Swede doesn’t miss many greens and when he does miss them he has a dream short game. He looks to be hitting the ball very well and at 20/1 looks a great bet here.
Henrik Stenson annoyed me in that he led the field after 18 holes in Milan last week but then failed to make any progress from there on in. I was almost done with him but then came the news that he has rehired Gareth Lord as caddy. When they were last together that pair had the Swede as The Open champion and one of the best players in the world. It can’t be a surprise that Stenson has employed him again now after adhering to his commitment to captain Harrington that he would play this tournament and the three that preceded it to prove his desire for a wildcard pick. Stenson has been going well for the last few weeks anyway with finishes of 4-3-15. His last three finishes here were 7-3-17 so this is a course he gets in with and statistically in the last three weeks his long game has been fantastic. If his putter cooperates on a course he knows well he should be right there again.
Outsiders
Johannes Veerman has done me a decent turn recently when he came out on top in the Czech Masters and he has the sort of game which should go well here because he hits a lot of greens but we saw in Prague that his short game can certainly get the job done when he misses the greens. He missed the cut in Switzerland the week after he won but I’m not going to hold that against him. Players who get over the emotional rollercoaster of winning for the first time almost always come out flat the next week. He confirmed his form with another top 10 in Rome last week where he ranked sixth in the field for approach play gaining almost seven shots on the field. His putter is hot at the minute too and although this is his Wentworth debut, if he takes to the greens nicely the confidence he is carrying can see him go close here.
At a monster price I’ll have a small play on Renato Paratore too. He has won in England before when he took down the British Masters shortly after the sport came out of lockdown and tends to fare well in the British Isles. His record in the last three stagings of the British Masters reads 8-1-11, the latest of which was at The Belfry which is a classic layout like this one and he has a couple of top 30s in other events over here. The Italian was in the top 10 in Switzerland a couple of weeks ago and with his length and the firm conditions meaning he won’t need to bust driver all week, that added control can see him improve on his seventh placed finish from last year.
Tips
Back A.Noren to win BMW PGA Championship (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 21.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back R.Paratore to win BMW PGA Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 176.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
Back H.Stenson to win BMW PGA Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with 888sport (1/5 1-8)
Back J.Veerman to win BMW PGA Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 71.00 with 888sport (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
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Seriously emphasise with you on Stenson Kev. Extremely frustrating person to follow. No sooner do you think you are out of the woods and Stenson is beginning to mount a challenge when from nowhere he crashes and burns. I do not know if it is a serious laps in concentration or what but his whole demeanour is certainly not very inspiring.
Empathise!