The European Tour season concludes this week when 50 of the leading players head to Dubai for the DP World Tour Championship, the tournament where the European number one and Race to Dubai champion is confirmed.
Although Lee Westwood was crowned the Race to Dubai winner last year, it was Matthew Fitzpatrick who won this tournament and he has made it into the field to attempt to defend the crown. He’ll have to go well against a stacked field though.
Recent Winners
2020 – Matthew Fitzpatrick
2019 – Jon Rahm
2018 – Danny Willett
2017 – Jon Rahm
2016 – Matthew Fitzpatrick
2015 – Rory McIlroy
2014 – Henrik Stenson
2013 – Henrik Stenson
2012 – Rory McIlroy
2011 – Alvaro Quiros
The Course
We are at the Jumeirah Golf Estates for the second week in a row, but while those who teed it up last week took on the Fire Course, the field here go out and do battle with the Earth Course, the track that has staged this tournament since its exception. That means the track is known to the many players who have played it before. It is a par 72 which stretches to 7,675 yards which sounds extremely long but we are in the desert where the air is drier and the ball shoots further as a result.
The equation for the Earth Course is pretty simple. Given the very wide fairways it is simply give it a smack off the tee, walk after it, find it, hit it again into the vicinity of the greens and preferably on them, and then let the short game and touch go to work. This is a second shot golf course but with the wide fairways and relative lack of rough the longer hitters tend to be the ones who score better around here.
The Field
Originally the idea was to have the leading 50 players in the Race to Dubai rankings here this week but a couple of big names didn’t fancy it and so the field has moved down to #53 in the rankings. One of those who didn’t fancy it this week is the former champion Jon Rahm which is disappointing. Justin Rose is another who has skipped the event which led to Patrick Reed and Sergio Garcia being invited in their place.
Most of the winners of the European Tour events this season are in the field though and the top five players at the end of the week in the Race to Dubai standings will get a juicy bonus. That is sure to be of interest to the leading two in the standings in Collin Morikawa and Billy Horschel, both of whom are here this week. Tyrrell Hatton and Min Woo Lee are the other two players who are currently in position for a bonus who tee it up here. Of the others JB Hansen played himself into the field with a win last week while Thomas Pieters, Tommy Fleetwood, Bernd Wiesberger, Shane Lowry and Abraham Ancer are just some of the star names joining the defending champion Matt Fitzpatrick in the field.
Market Leaders
Rory McIlroy is the headline European attraction in the field and he is the 6/1 favourite to win the tournament this week. He certainly has the length to do some major damage in this event but whether he has the rest of his game in great order remains to be seen. He did win the CJ Cup last time out though which was his second win of 2021 so on that form he merits respect, particularly as he has won twice around here in the past. He is probably a worthy favourite but he is plenty short enough for me.
Collin Morikawa won the biggest tournament of the year when he took The Open down and he’ll be looking to win this too and if he does so he will finish the season as the Race to Dubai winner. The American starts out as a 17/2 shot to win the title here and he has to be respected on any second shot golf course. Morikawa was tenth here on debut last year and is probably an even better player now with a win overseas. He is one for the shortlists if the price suits.
We have a trio of Ryder Cup players on 16/1 this week. They are Sergio Garcia, Tommy Fleetwood and the defending champion Matt Fitzpatrick. Regular readers will know I have no interest in a defending champion so Fitzpatrick isn’t for me despite his solid record around here. Fleetwood played the Fire Course last week and went well enough but his putter was ice cold and that isn’t a good thing. There is a sense that Garcia might be a big price at 16/1 at European Tour level but even then I’m not convinced there is much value there with the quality of this field even allowing for three top 10 finishes on his last three starts.
Two other players come next in the betting at 20/1. They are the man who you would have expected to have gone better around here than he has done in Tyrrell Hatton while the latest WGC winner Abraham Ancer is the other. Ancer should go well here but that WGC event aside he has flattered to deceive a touch in this sort of company. Hatton hasn’t shown much form for a long while now with the exception of the Alfred Dunhill Links where he has an exceptional record. Neither of these are for me.
Main Bets
When Thomas Pieters got the job done in the Portugal Masters a couple of weeks ago my mind immediately pinned him down for this tournament so I’m actually pleased that he took last week off to ensure he is fresh for this competition. Pieters already has a top 10 around here and smacks it a pretty mile which will allow him to take advantage of the par 5s, which is something you have to do to feature around here. He was in excellent touch with the irons in Portugal where he ranked fourth in the field for strokes gained on approach and he had two top 10s in his five starts prior to winning that event so we know his putter is working. He ticks every box to me here.
I always used to look at the season as a Dubai double at either end of it. Of course the addition of the event last week means that double isn’t on but with if we ignore that event then the traditional double of the Dubai Desert Classic and the DP World Tour Championship is something that Lucas Herbert will be looking to achieve this week. He won in Dubai earlier in the year and since then he has won in Bermuda on the PGA Tour to highlight both his quality and his all-round game regardless of the conditions. The most important weapon the Australian has is power and he gets the chance to show all of that around here. It wasn’t too long ago he was winning in Bermuda so he should still have the confidence of that win with him here and he looks a monster price based on his Dubai win earlier in the season.
Outsiders
Adrian Meronk is on debut here and I’m not going to deny the case of that being a negative and I won’t make out that it isn’t that but I still think there is enough juice in the price to see if the big hitting Pole can take to it at the first time of asking. Meronk went well on the Fire Course last week despite a tame first round. A lot of that was down to having a month off but he shot -19 for his final three rounds and even an average first round might have won him that event last week. If he takes to this course straight away we could be looking back on him being a huge price.
Alexander Bjork needed a big week last week to make it into the field here and when he had achieved that he gave a TV interview where he said he was desperate to get into this tournament because he loves the course and when you consider the pressure he delivers under last week I think it is worth taking him at his word this week. Bjork has played here twice and finished 17-12 which weren’t terrible efforts. We know he goes in here with confidence. In his last two outings he has gained 6.320 and 5.124 strokes on approach and he is one of the better putters in the field. I think we have to take that interview at face value and tuck into a three figure price.
Tips
Back T.Pieters to win DP World Tour Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back L.Herbert to win DP World Tour Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
Back A.Bjork to win DP World Tour Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Betfair
Back them here:
Back A.Meronk to win DP World Tour Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
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