July is here which means the build-up to The Open can begin. As ever on a traditional schedule two weeks out from the final major of the year the European Tour heads against the Irish Sea for the Irish Open, one of the more popular events on the circuit.
This tournament was staged in very different circumstances last year and it was John Catlin who came out on top. The American will defend his crown on a different course and against a much stronger field than the one he beat.
Recent Winners
2020 – John Catlin
2019 – Jon Rahm
2018 – Russell Knox
2017 – Jon Rahm
2016 – Rory McIlroy
2015 – Soren Kjeldsen
2014 – Mikko Ilonen
2013 – Paul Casey
2012 – Jamie Donaldson
2011 – Simon Dyson
The Course
For the first time since the mid-nineties the tournament heads to County Kilkenny with the Mount Juliet Estate the host venue for the event. This is a Jack Nicklaus designed treat which is such a good course that it twice hosted in a WGC event in the early part of the 21st century. The course is a par 72 but it isn’t overly long by modern standards, registering at 7,250 yards in total so you don’t need to be a bomber to get round here by any means.
This course, which is pretty wide off the tee, sees generous fairways blended in with stunning tree lines but as ever with a Nicklaus design the difficulty of this track come from the second shot onwards with greens probably on the smaller side to what the European Tour have been used to in recent weeks. This track, a month or so on from the British Masters at The Belfry, is further evidence that the golfing world is slowly getting back to normal.
The Field
One of the many things that there is to like about Rory McIlroy is how well he supports his home tournament and the recent Wells Fargo Championship winner is once again teeing it up in the Irish Open. He has been joined by fellow Irishman, Shane Lowry, who is preparing to defend The Open title in a couple of weeks. Tommy Fleetwood is another European star who will be hoping to make his presence felt at the event, as is the runner up in Germany last week in Martin Kaymer.
This is a really good field by any standards let alone a European Tour event. The rising South African star Christiaan Bezuidenhout is here as is the man who landed a couple of titles on the UK Swing last year in Sam Horsfield. Plenty of other household names tee it up including the Irish pair of Graeme McDowell and Padraig Harrington, Andy Sullivan, Thomas Pieters, Ryan Fox and the defending champion John Catlin.
Market Leaders
Rory Mcilroy is a 5/1 favourite to win the Irish Open title for a second time. It wasn’t too long ago that he won the Wells Fargo Championship and he was in the top 10 in the US Open on his last start so you would that is the sort of form to win this title. He has only won it once though so he certainly isn’t a turn up and guaranteed to win sort of good thing but it is hard to argue against him being the favourite. His odds are plenty short enough for me to look to take him on though.
Shane Lowry is a 14/1 poke to win this title. He won it as an amateur back in 2009 but he hasn’t won it since which is both a surprise and a concern, particularly when you think that this tournament had a run of renewals on a links track. Lowry has pretty solid form over in America with three top 10s in his last five starts although he finished the US Open in disappointing fashion. You would think he has the tools to go well here but that Open defence looming so strongly on the horizon could be getting more of his attention than this week.
Tommy Fleetwood is having a very quiet 2021 with just the one top 10 in a strokeplay tournament either in Europe or over in the United States. He is 18/1 to win the tournament this week but as good as he is you would be taking a chance on his form rather than be able to rely on it which isn’t a great way to bet. If there were any signs that Fleetwood’s form was about to turn around then a case could be made but there isn’t in truth.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout had a good run of form when the PGA Tour was in Florida but he has dropped off a little since then and will be hoping that a return to a level he has previously excelled at will bring about a rise in his form. On the face of it you would think he has the tools to go well here but whether that lack of form has dented his confidence remains to be seen. He is 20/1 which feels no more than a fair price.
Main Bets
I’ll go with a couple of main bets this week, the first of which will be Sam Horsfield who might just be primed for a serious run at this event and a couple to come over the next month or so. Horsfield has been to America a couple of times recently and I’m not certain that has helped his form necessarily but he looks to be back on track now he is in Europe and in European Tour events his strokes gained on approach numbers are ridiculous. Seven of his last nine starts have been in Europe and his approach strokes gained have been 4.108, 1.775, 7.174, 5.315, 9.084, 2.057 and 4.034. He almost laps the field on approach and with Nicklaus courses all being a second shot test that is a massive advantage this week. He has the length to take advantage of the par 5s and with nobody having a putting edge over him here I think the Englishman could take a lot of stopping here.
Another Englishman who I think might take some beating is Andy Sullivan. Sullivan has had an up and down month or so with top 10 finishes at the British Masters and in the BMW International last week but in between he had a missed cut at the USPGA Championship and an average finish in the Made in Himmerland event. It should be said that the latter was the week after the former so flying around the world and a tough Kiawah course might have attributed to his struggles in Denmark. In those two events he went well in he gained over three strokes on the field on approach and even at Kiawah he gained three shots for the two rounds he played there. Sullivan demolished the field at Hanbury Manor last year which isn’t too dissimilar to this place and his last two goes in Ireland saw him finish sixth and second. He looks to have an awful lot going for him this week.
Outsiders
I took Adrian Otaegui as one of my bets last week and at the halfway mark I was hopeful of him delivering a place but an uncharacteristic third round put paid to any chance of that but I retain what I said last week about him potentially ticking into form at the right time. Despite that indifferent third round he still ranked ninth in strokes gained on approach for the week and is really starting to excel in that discipline. His last six tournaments have seen him register approach strokes gained figures of 4.555, -0.755, 3.712, 0.623, 11.116 and 5.016. The only thing that has let him down has been the putter but if he can sort those issues out on greens which few in the field would have played under competitive conditions then he is likely to be a leading runner. The Spaniard was second to Sullivan at Hanbury Manor last year and won in Scotland last season so UK and Irish conditions don’t trouble him. I’ll pay to see how well he goes.
Darren Fichardt hasn’t won a title on the European Tour this season but he has done pretty much everything but win. He has three top 10s in his last five starts in Europe and was well placed at halfway in another before he lost his way. His approach figures in those events are the thing which have caught my eye. His strokes gained approach rankings were 2-11-18-29-5 and numerically the figures are 8.305, 5.474, 3.961, 2.839 and 6.713. He is another who pretty much laps the field into the greens and as I’ve said throughout, with nobody having a competitive advantage on these greens the South African has to be a leading player if he continues to flush his irons.
I’ll also take a chance on Ross Fisher at a huge price. This is a lot more speculative than the other four because he has missed his last two cuts with absolute mares of a round on both occasions but the first of those courses in Germany caught out plenty in the field and I’m hoping last week was just a lack of competitive reps. Why I’m happy to have a go with him is in three of the five starts prior to those two missed cuts he registered strokes gained on approach figures of 6.393 in Austria, 6.323 at The Belfry in the British Masters and 6.667 at the event in Denmark. His putter let him down on all three occasions but if he can just find some confidence with that stick early he might push himself into position where he could be a factor this week.
Tips
Back S.Horsfield to win Irish Open (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 21.00 with Coral (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
Back R.Fisher to win Irish Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with 888sport (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
Back A.Sullivan to win Irish Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Betway (1/5 1-7)
Back A.Otaegui to win Irish Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 71.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
Back D.Fichardt to win Irish Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
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