There are four rounds left of the PGA Tour season and the first of those will be played on Thursday when the 30 men who have qualified for the Tour Championship will take the East Lake course competitively for the first time this year.
This is a day where all 30 players will be looking to enhance their positions on the leaderboard and set up the opportunity to become an even richer man when the weekend comes along so everyone will be eager to start well.
First Round Leader
Whenever we get involved in a tournament on a round by round basis the first market I always look at is the first round leader one. This tournament is a bit different to the norm though. Usually everyone starts on level par but that isn’t the case here with the staggered handicap scoring system in place once again. That means Patrick Cantlay will begin two shots clear of anyone else on the course, and while his record here suggests he might struggle to stay in front over 72 holes, the fact only three men are closer than five shots to him at the outset gives him half a chance of leading after the first round.
That always makes betting on this first round quite tough. My gut feel is still to take Cantlay on, especially after the emotion of that excellent win last week, but the market is all too aware of the situation. If I was going to bring myself to bet on this market then I’d probably take a chance on the 7/1 Rahm but even he begins the day four back from Cantlay so would probably need help from the leader. He is also out alongside Bryson DeChambeau and there’s going to be too much of a circus following him this week so that’s another negative. I’ll leave this market alone.
Thursday 2 Balls
One of the best things about this tournament is that unless the weather intervenes for the whole week the event is played out in two balls with only 30 men on the course each day. That offers up much better betting possibilities. The field will go out in FedExCup positions over the first 18 holes so the last two in the field – Patrick Reed and Billy Horschel – go out at 16.40 BST and the leading two of Patrick Cantlay and Tony Finau head off at 19.00 BST. Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau are the penultimate group out at 18.50 BST. There are two bets I like in the two balls for Thursday.
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Sergio Garcia vs Erik van Rooyen
Match tees off at 16.50 BST
The second group out onto the golf course on Thursday sees Sergio Garcia going out alongside the tournament debutant Erik van Rooyen who gave an interview last week that suggested he is going to throw the kitchen sink at trying to win the FedExCup.
He’ll soon find out that isn’t possible around here and the more he’ll push to close the 10 shot gap the worse his position is likely to get. This is a strategic golf course where experience means absolutely plenty and very rarely do debutants show up and thrive here no matter what form they arrive in. This is the top 30 players in the world so form is largely irrelevant. Garcia is as experienced as they come around here and that is hugely important. He probably isn’t playing for the big bucks. He needs four good rounds of golf to force Padraig Harrington’s hand to pick him for the Ryder Cup. He knows how to score around here and has shot under par in five of his nine first rounds at this track. Another here could well be enough to land this two ball.
Patrick Cantlay vs Tony Finau
Match tees off at 19.00 BST
The final group out onto the golf course sees the man in control of his own destiny in Patrick Cantlay going out alongside his closest rival Tony Finau in a pairing which sees the last two tournament winners going out together.
Finau didn’t have the greatest week at the BMW Championship to back up his win at The Northern Trust but he did finish with a 63 and his record here isn’t the worst. He has played here four times with three opening rounds under par and a level par 70 in the other. Although this course negates the length of Finau, the rest of his game appears in the sort of shape to cope. Cantlay doesn’t have as good a record here and I’m always wary of getting behind a player who had an emotional high the last time he was on the golf course. Cantlay has never broken par in the opening round here in three efforts and his poor record here is no secret. He also has the issue of whether to protect his lead or push on whereas the mind of Finau will be much clearer. I think the winner of The Northern Trust can beat the BMW Championship champion here.
Tips
Back S.Garcia to beat E.van Rooyen for a 3/10 stake at 2.00 with Betfair
Back T.Finau to beat P.Cantlay for a 3/10 stake at 2.25 with Betfair
Back them here:
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