The first Triple Crown title of the snooker season will be won on Sunday when two of the better talents in the game battle it out for the UK Championship trophy when Luca Brecel takes on Zhao Xintong inside the Barbican Centre in York.
The two will meet over the best of 19 frames where one of them will not only win the second biggest ranking event of the campaign but whoever comes out on top will also seal the final spot at The Masters next month so there is plenty on the line here.
Luca Brecel
If you had said to Luca Brecel that he would make the final of this tournament when it started he would probably have snapped your hand off. It will be interesting to see if his expectations have raised at all when you consider that he is no worse than a 50:50 shot for the title in a match where bookmakers can’t split the two men. Brecel might actually have the edge though given that he has actually won a title previously.
That could change things for the Belgian though because he might see himself as a favourite for this match. The one thing he will know is if he plays like he did in his semi-final he is going to be very tough to beat. He smashed in four centuries and a 97 break and took everything that Kyren Wilson could muster up to throw at him. That should give him a lot of confidence to take into what is the biggest match of his career.
Zhao Xintong
The Chinese star Zhao Xintong has already had a breakthrough week in his career and he could crown it in some style if he can provide one more win. Xintong has been excellent in the second part of this tournament and has seen off three very seasoned challengers in the form of John Higgins, Jack Lisowski and Barry Hawkins, the latter two for the loss of just the three frames. He has scored incredibly well throughout the week and will need to do that again here if he is to win this final.
Xintong has looked very composed and confident this week and has come through matches when he has been behind and he has front run very well so he’ll be feeling good about himself. This is going to be an occasion he has never been a part of before though so the immediate key from his side of the fence is that he settles immediately. If he takes a few frames to feel comfortable then Brecel could steal a march and he might not be for catching.
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Head to Head
These two men have met on four previous occasions although one of those was at the Shootout so in terms of normal snooker they have played three times in the past. Brecel has the edge 2-1 but it is Xintong who won their most recent meeting which was at the Welsh Open earlier in the year. This is the first time they will have met over the best of 19 frames, or in any match of more than one session. It is also the first time they have met in a final so although their head to head record is in favour of Brecel, just how much importance it carries remains to be seen a touch.
Betting
You can make a case for both of these men in the final and if I was pushed to back one of them then I would probably side with Zhao Xintong. He has played some really good stuff this week in more than one match and he has played opponents who have turned up against him whereas some of Brecel’s opposition have had absolute mares against him, admittedly because of the pressure the Belgian has placed on them.
Ultimately though I’m acutely aware of what is at stake for both men in this final and I fully expect some nerves and things like that, especially if this final is as close as it has the potential to be. I don’t expect a scrappy final though. Neither man is overly proficient in the safety department and I expect both to play to their strengths of getting the balls open and looking to dish them up. Every frame these two won in their semi-finals was done with a 50+ break and I expect that trend to continue here so the even money on over 13.5 50 breaks looks good enough to me.
Tips
Back Over 13.5 50+ breaks for a 3/10 stake at 2.00 with Betfair
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