It isn’t just in Ireland where the big races are run on Saturday as we have the second of the Triple Crown events taking place in America where all the eyes will be on Pimlico for the Preakness Stakes, the follow up to the Kentucky Derby.
This is another race where there is a fairly small, compact field and like the Irish 2000 Guineas there is a hotpot as the favourite. Once again we’re looking to take it on and the preview below highlights what with and why.
12.01 Pimlico: Preakness Stakes
Preview
It’s the second leg of the US Triple Crown, the Preakness Stakes, and following on from the 20 runners we saw in the Kentucky Derby, we revert to single figures with just 9 going to post. That doesn’t deter from the quality at the head of the market where Epicenter, who was 2nd in the Kentucky Derby, is the current favourite, at a shade of odds on. His form is well touted having won 3 of his 4 career starts previous to that last run & he looked all over the winner in the Derby until collared close home by a 80/1 shot. He’s the most likely runner but isn’t a price I’m interested in. Jose Ortiz is aboard the second favourite in Early Voting who is very lightly raced & is having his first run away for Aqueduct. His only defeat came when a neck 2nd to Mo Donegal who was then 5th in the Derby so, on form, he’s in the mix but has to improve to turn over the favourite. Secret Oath is a very interesting runner as she won the Kentucky Oaks & comes here to take on the boys. It’s not often we see a filly win this race although there have been 2 this century. Her form is solid enough but again, at 5/1, she’s not really trading at a price to interest me. That said, much of the rest of the field has loads to find with the market leaders but there is one that interests me.
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Betting
Simplification is the bet for me. His 4 race career is pretty decent if you look through the form; he was second on debut to White Abarrio who was well fancied for the Derby but did finish slightly ahead of Mo Donegal. Next time up, he won the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth despite coming widest of all, in fact he was 6 wide yet scooted up by over 3 lengths. He was again behind White Abarrio, albeit closer to him, when 3rd in the Florida Derby where front running tactics didn’t suit. He was then held up in the Derby, came wide again but made a good challenge & finished a more than creditable 4th, 2 places behind Epicenter, but one in front of Mo Donegal. On a line through Early Voting, he has the beating of him & whilst this is a very different contest, he shouldn’t be double the price. He is drawn on the inside but with the small field, he should be able to get a good enough sit behind the pace & hopefully won’t be forced too wide to make his challenge. Another very eyecatching jockey booking now that Ortiz switches to Early Voting, and at the odds, he’s the each way value.
Tips
Back Simplification (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 12.00 Bet365 (⅕ odds 1-3)
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