It’s the first night of Breeders Cup weekend, this year being run at Del Mar. Tonight’s card really is just setting up the big day tomorrow so we are keeping our bets light and taking 2 in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.
[the_ad_group id=”3624″]
9.25 Del Mar: Juvenile Fillies Turf
A mile race for the 2 year old girls around a tight track where Europe, and Aiden O’Brien in particular, hold good claims with Happily and September towards the head of the market.
There are 5 things that stand out to me; O’Brien is 0 from 9 in this, Chad Brown has a good record in this having saddled 3 winners all of which took in the Miss Grillo last time out, there is a distinct lack of pace, a low draw is preferable and American runners usually go under the betting radar when European opposition is present.
This leads me to taking 2 bets, the first being Significant Form. She’s seen the track just twice and has been first past the port in both. First time up, she stumbled badly early doors but still ran on to take the race cosily, albeit being subsequently disqualified. She then took in the Miss Grillo where she finished a length in front of Best Performance. In addition, both of those runs were on firm ground so she’s certain to be suit by the ground and it’s hard to see her not being in the mix, especially having followed the trainer’s traditional and successful path to glory in this race. Her draw in 8 is good enough, especially considering many of her main market rivals are drawn wider.
Best Performance has chances, being 3lb better off with Significant Form, and is drawn in 1. The concern is that she likes to come from off the pace and, therefore, the inside berth might not be the place to be. That said, she was the last one to have a line put through her name.
Our 2nd bet is Ultima D, another horse to have beaten Best Performance. She looks a big price in a race that should suit her running style. She finished 2nd on her first 2 starts but both those runs were over inadequate trips and she improved markedly when stepped up to 7 furlongs and adopting a front running style. That day, she came clear by almost 2 lengths and whilst this race isn’t normally one for front runners, there is a distinct lack of pace and she could dictate around this tight track. Another who will like the ground so plenty going for her at a massive price.
Tips
Back Significant Form (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 10.00 William Hill BOG (⅕ odds 1-3)
Back it here:
Back Ultima D (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 21.00 Betfair Sportsbook BOG (⅕ odds 1-4)
Back it here:
Copyright secured by Digiprove © 2017
