Horse Racing – Saturday 19th march
That was a hectic week. 4 days of Cheltenham is enough for anyone but there’s no rest of us and we’re straight back on the horse, literally, with 1 bet from the evening all weather meeting at Wolverhampton.
6.45pm Wolverhampton
The best race of the evening is a Class 3 handicap for 0-95 rated horses. 10 runners go to post and we have 2 that are battling for favouritism in Perfect Cracker and Ready, both of which are opposable.
Perfect Cracker has been in great form this winter, finishing in the first 2 on all 3 of his starts. He won in a lower grade and off a 6lb lower mark on the first of those 3 runs, before finishing 2nd twice off marks 4lb and 3lb lower than today’s. His last run was in a grade higher than this but we’re put off by an increase in mark despite failing to record a success last time out. Perfect Cracker is an 8 year old so there’s surely not much improvement left and today he races off a career high mark, 6lb above his highest winning mark. His form figures are excellent but conditions less so, making him opposable.
Adam Kirby takes the mount on Ready and, apart from such a positive jockey booking, we’re not sure what makes Ready such a big fancy for this. 2 starts ago, he finished a head 2nd over this course and distance but is 3lb higher today and has to race in a higher grade. There was a 5lb claimer in the saddle that day so, assuming we put him and Kirby on a par, Ready is effectively 8lb higher. A 78 day absence does nothing to enhance his claims here.
Jack Of Diamonds and Sheilas Buddy are next 2 in the market and are the 2 last time out winners in the field. Both are raised 3lb for narrow victories but neither look obvious types to follow up in a better race as they’d both have to defy their highest ever mark at the age of 7.
This leads us to the 2 at the head of the weights, both with something to prove but both looking dangerously well treated. Our main hope is Capo Rosso from the excellent Tom Dascombe / Richard Kingscote trainer jockey combination. He races off his lowest mark for almost 2 years and is dropped to a Class 3 handicap for the first time since winning at this track almost 18 months ago off a 1lb higher mark than todays. The horse goes extremely well for this jockey, to the exclusion of any other jockey, and appears to have a class ceiling which appears to be this grade. It is easy to overlook almost every one of his runs since that win 18 months ago. In 10 runs, he’s raced in 2 handicaps off marks of 100 (races off 93 today), 1 of 97 and 4 conditions races where the weights were totally against our horse.
Capo Rosso also has a big preference for this track with a record of 4 wins and 2 places from 8 starts here, compared to 6 unplaced efforts on his only other starts on the all weather, all at Lingfield. Returned to this track, with Kingscote on top and dropped in grade and mark, 14/1 looks a ridiculous price. The only concern is that he’s never won over this far but recent runs have suggested a step up in trip might be needed. The final thing in our horses’ favour is the shape of the race, where every other runner likes to be held up. He has a lovely draw in the inside stall and should be able to dictate the tempo before kicking off the final bend. We wouldn’t be surprised to see a number of his opponents struggling to settle and conditions almost couldn’t be better. If it all goes to plan, Capo Rosso could be adding course victory number 5 to his name.
His main rival is Mont Ras, now trained by David Loughnane having moved from David O’Mearas yard. He is dropped in grade today and, on a line through Brave Zolo, is evenly matched with Perfect Cracker. He’s been running consistently which hasn’t seen much respite from the handicapper but he has proven winning form off higher marks and in better grades. Mont Ras is probably the other horse that can race prominently so it’s likely he’ll track the pace and is therefore well berthed in stall 2. David Nolan takes the ride and has a win and a 3rd from 2 runs so the jockey booking is a big positive. He still holds an entry in the William Hill Lincoln and could go well at a big price. He is recommended as a saver but in the win market only.
Back Capo Rosso (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 15.00 Coral (1/5 odds 1-3, BOG)
Back it here:
Back Mont Ras for a 1/10 stake at 13.00 Ladbrokes (BOG)
Back it here:
