The last Grand Slam match of 2020 will be played out on Sunday when the two top ranked players meet in the men’s final of the French Open as Novak Djokovic battles it out against Rafael Nadal for the clay court title at Roland Garros.
We saw shocks galore and a surprise winner of the women’s event but in truth we could have just cancelled the preliminaries and gone straight to this final on the men’s side as these two greats of the game fight for another Grand Slam to add to their collection.
Novak Djokovic
It hasn’t been a completely smooth passage through the draw for Novak Djokovic but he has made it into the final unscathed. He has dropped sets in his last two matches and will have been disappointed not to get his semi-final against Stefanos Tsitsipas done in three sets when he had match point to do so but he did win that contest and that is all that matters. He has had a day and a half to rest since that five-set clash so he should be fresh enough here.
The challenge isn’t really whether he is fresh enough, it is whether he is good enough. If this was on a hard court the Serbian would be a huge favourite but on a clay court it is a lot more 50:50 and indeed the world number one might even be an outsider but he believes, and he is probably justified in doing so, that the heavier conditions at this time of year plays more into his hands. One thing is for sure is he could do with a fast start. He doesn’t want to be playing catch up against the King of Clay.
Rafael Nadal
Anyone who has watched the French Open in the recent past will not be surprised that Rafael Nadal has made it through to the final. They probably won’t be surprised that he has made it through without dropping a set either. For all the talk in the lead up to the tournament about balls not being suitable for Nadal and the ball not bouncing high enough for him, he has cruised into this final, albeit having only faced one seeded player, that being Diego Schwartzman.
This clearly represents his biggest challenge so we are going to find out whether all the talk of the balls and the conditions carried any weight at all or if it was just talk to make was what always going to be a predictable fortnight up until this point a little more interesting. One thing is for sure is Nadal is playing well, he certainly knows how to win this title on this court and he will scrap until the bitter end. He is rightfully the favourite and the one to beat.
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Head to Head
These two men are certainly no stranger to facing each other. They have done so on 55 previous occasions with Djokovic now ahead 29-26 and looking to extend that record. The consensus is that Nadal would be far superior on clay and that is true as he leads 15-7 but seven of those wins came before Djokovic was established as a leading player on tour so there is a case to be made that he actually only leads 8-7 on clay. They have met in 27 previous finals in the past with 16 of those going the way of Djokovic to the 11 of Nadal. This is their ninth Grand Slam final and they go into it 4-4 from the previous eight. There isn’t a whole lot to separate them historically.
Betting
I take on board everything that has been said about the conditions and the balls but I still don’t see Novak Djokovic beating Rafael Nadal here. I don’t actually think Djokovic is on top of his game. He made quite a few sloppy errors early on against Pablo Carreno Busta in the quarter final and more than enough to keep Stefanos Tsitsipas interested in the semi-final and he just can’t afford that against a Nadal who knows how important this match is in the quest to be called the greatest.
Nadal draws level with the pacesetter Roger Federer if he wins here and with clay probably the only surface he can win slams on now to keep Djokovic one further away from him and have his ledger with Federer tied up will be motivation aplenty for the Spanish king of the clay. Nadal might not be the force he was and that will keep Djokovic in the hunt but the magnitude of the final suggests to me that Nadal will not be beaten. I don’t think he’ll win 3-0 but I do think he’ll win.
Tips
Back R.Nadal to win and both players to win a set for a 3/10 stake at 2.50 with Bet365
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