The first set of matches in the WGC Dell Match Play made for some exciting golf and as is always the case in this tournament they produced plenty of surprising results with reputations counting for absolutely nothing in this event.
The biggest name to lose on the opening day was Rickie Fowler, a surprise 2&1 loser to Jason Dufner but for long periods Rory McIlroy looked set for defeat while both Jason Day and Bubba Watson had to come from behind to get positive results of their own.
Thursday sees the group matches continuing with 32 more games taking place as the tournament begins to take shape. Those who failed to win on the opening day have to on Thursday else they face the potential of being out before they play their final group opponent. Those who won will be looking to continue their good form.
There are some great matches on Thursday’s line up with the best looking one of them all probably being the one between world number one Jordan Spieth and the man who entertained many with his run to the final of this tournament a few years ago in Victor Dubuisson. Rory McIlroy vs Smylie Kaufman should be a good match as should Paul Casey vs Graeme McDowell.
The odds for those matches all look about right to me so I’m going to leave them alone but there are four I’m going with in this set of games as well as hoping those I’ve backed either for their group or outright continue to do the business.
My first bet comes in the 15.30 GMT tee time as JB Holmes goes up against the PGA Tour rookie Patton Kizzire. Those who regularly read my golf previews will know I rate Kizzire quite highly and he should be full of confidence coming into this match after nailing a half with Bubba Watson on Wednesday.
JB Holmes will be the opposite. He got a real good going over by Emiliano Grillo in his first match and was something like four over par through seven holes. This isn’t a course which suits Holmes’ strength especially early in the round. He might come good from the 13th onwards but Kizzire’s solid tee to green game and excellent ability on the greens could see him away and gone by then.
I just can’t be having Holmes around here so I’m firmly in the Kizzire camp for my first bet of the day especially at the crazy prices doing the rounds on him.
An hour later the jovial figure of Andy Sullivan tees off against Matt Jones. Sullivan beat Bernd Wiesberger on the opening day while Jones lost to Louis Oosthuizen. Were Sullivan to win this Jones would be out so there is plenty of pressure on the Australian here.
I like Sullivan in this format and I like him on this golf course too. He is usually pretty solid from tee to green and has enough length to be a force on the shorter holes and the par 5s while his short game is right up there if he does play a poor shot at any stage.
Jones really struggled against Oosthuizen on Wednesday. For the 17 holes he played he was two over par and that isn’t going to get the job done at this level. He didn’t find many flags and his only birdie of the day came on the relatively easy sixth hole.
Everything we’ve seen so far suggests to me that Sullivan is a good thing in that match and I’m surprised he isn’t a great deal shorter than he actually is here.
Another man suited to this golf course is Zach Johnson. I had concerns about Johnson with his iron play around here into these tricky greens but I needn’t have had. It looks like he is finally in sync with his long game again after his manufacturer switch. He played some lovely golf to take care of Marcus Fraser on Wednesday.
Zach now faces Martin Kaymer, who like the American was able to win on Wednesday but unlike Zach who went and won his game, the German was largely gifted his by some indifferent play in the last six holes by Shane Lowry. Kaymer only went round in level par on Wednesday so he was extremely fortunate to win.
I like the way Zach played last week and he’s taken that into this week and he is another who I thought would be a great deal shorter than he actually is going into this match. I’ll take advantage of the nice price.
Understandably only the one bookmaker is offering a price on the Jason Day vs Thongchai Jaidee match given Day’s back troubles of the opening day. At the time of writing we don’t know if Day will be fit to compete but if he is able to play you would think he would be quite restricted and unlikely to power his driver to the lengths he usually is able to.
That brings the Thai right into play because with a short iron in his hand there are few better in the game of golf than Jaidee as he’s shown plenty of times in the past. Jaidee has shown a good liking for this format of the game and I expect him to go well in this match.
Jaidee would’ve been value against Day regardless and while the price has understandably collapsed I think it is worth paying to see just how fit Day is. I don’t believe he’ll be 100% and given that McDowell went 2up on a fully fit Day at the time we’ve got to think Jaidee will be competitive against an unfit one.
Back P.Kizzire to beat JB Holmes for a 4/10 stake at 2.63 with Skybet
Back him here:
WON – Back A.Sullivan to beat M.Jones for a 5/10 stake at 2.00 with Unibet
Back him here:
WON – Back Z.Johnson to beat M.Kaymer for a 4/10 stake at 1.87 with Coral
Back him here:
Back T.Jaidee to beat J.Day for a 4/10 stake at 2.50 with Sportingbet
