After the highs and lows of the Ryder Cup last week, we are back to traditional stroke play this week with the European Tour heading back to Scotland for the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, the tournament which pits golfers alongside stars of sport and screen in a pro-am format.
Victor Perez has had to wait two years to defend the title he won back in 2019 after the pandemic put paid to his chances of doing so last year. He is here but he is up against a pretty decent field looking to dethrone him.
Recent Winners
2019 – Victor Perez
2018 – Lucas Bjerregaard
2017 – Tyrrell Hatton
2016 – Tyrrell Hatton
2015 – Thorbjorn Olesen
2014 – Oliver Wilson
2013 – David Howell
2012 – Branden Grace
2011 – Michael Hoey
2010 – Martin Kaymer
The Format
Each professional teeing it up this week is paired with an amateur partner where the pair play each of the courses once over the first three days of the tournament. The top 60 professionals after the third round play the final round at St Andrews on Sunday with the leading 20 pro-am teams also playing out the last 18 holes for their own individual title.
The Courses
Kingsbarns, St Andrews and Carnoustie are the three courses this week with Kingsbarns often the easiest of the rotation and Carnoustie the toughest although they are all set up easier than they would be if they were hosting The Open to allow for the amateurs to get by in a reasonable time limit. As we have seen in the past though, the toughness of all three courses will be determined by the conditions, especially the wind.
That wind is expected to be relevant all week with a normal breeze over the first two days before it freshens up and becomes something significant over the final two days. Factor that in when making your selections this week. It is also going to be fairly cold up in Scotland so the ball isn’t going to go through the air so we’re looking for players who have a bit of length to them I fancy. Being able to play in the wind is paramount and an enjoyment in tough conditions might help you separate the field too.
The Field
Three members of the European side who got taken to the cleaners in the Ryder Cup last week appear here looking to put that loss behind them. Former champion Tyrrell Hatton headlines the field with his two teammates Shane Lowry and Tommy Fleetwood joining him. The field is also joined by the recent BMW PGA Championship winner in Billy Horschel who will look to make significant gains in the Race to Dubai standings. Another notable in the field is Alex Noren, who arguably should have gone to Whistling Straits last week.
Victor Perez is the defending champion and along with Robert MacIntyre they were both high up in the Ryder Cup qualifying standings for so long. Both tee it up here with other former champions in the field including Martin Kaymer, Michael Hoey, Thorbjorn Olesen and Lucas Bjerregaard. Belgian pair Thomas Detry and Thomas Pieters are in the field as are recent European Tour winners Johannes Veerman, Calum Hill and Grant Forrest.
Market Leaders
Shane Lowry is a 16/1 shot to land the Alfred Dunhill Links title for the first time this week. He was probably the only non-Spanish European team member to come out of last week with much credit but a Ryder Cup is a very emotional affair and it would take a huge effort for anyone involved in that to win here. The last man to play in a Ryder Cup and then win here the following week was Martin Kaymer so while Lowry is suited to the test, history is very much against him.
It is against Tyrrell Hatton and Tommy Fleetwood too. They are two of four men along with Billy Horschel and Alex Noren who can be taken at 18/1 on the best prices. You have to respect Hatton given that he has won this thing twice and played well enough last week but I don’t think that statistic about Kaymer is a coincidence so he and Tommy look too short to me. The fact that Horschel has never finished inside the top 30 of The Open and the Scottish Open suggests his links credentials need some work and he’s on debut here so I’m not interested in him. Noren is of a lot more interest and the more interesting of this quartet but he might be an ounce skinny in this format.
Branden Grace comes next in the betting at 25/1. He’ll fancy the job having won this tournament in the past and he comes here off the back of a T12 in the Dutch Open recently. Missed cuts at The Open and the BMW PGA Championship suggest there is more of an inconsistency about him these days but we know he is very good in the wind and has the personality to deal with the excessively long days out on the golf course so there is plenty to like about the South African. It is 33/1 bar.
Main Bets
I’ll take a couple of main bets this week with Branden Grace the first of them. I should say that all my bets start off at Carnoustie to get it out of the way before the worst of the weather hits. Grace has plenty of links credentials on his CV not least when winning this tournament in 2012. It isn’t ideal that he wasn’t a factor in The Open or the BMW PGA Championship, his last two top field events, but links golf is a different beast and we know he likes the test that it brings. Grace is good in the wind which is going to be imperative this week and tends to operate at a higher level than this. He won in the wind in Puerto Rico earlier in the year and looks a leading bet here.
Another man who I think is a leading runner is the home star Robert MacIntyre. You can make the argument that his form isn’t all that after three straight missed cuts but two of those were in America and the other was probably a legacy of being in America. It is his links form that interests me more though. He was eighth in The Open at Royal St Georges and has been in the top 20 of the last two Scottish Opens. He was T26 in this last year. We know he’s good in the wind, we know he’s competent at the links tests and having been made to watch on last week he might have the bit between his teeth to prove a point. I like his chances here.
Outsiders
This is a tournament where throwing darts at a few big prices could be worth a shot and that is what I’ll do. The first of them comes in the form of Min Woo Lee who won the Scottish Open earlier in the season. He won that against a field which wasn’t far short of a major field so that form has to stand up as being significant. The wind was around in that tournament too so we know he can handle himself in the wind. He has put in a couple of solid efforts since he won the Scottish Open so that wasn’t a fluke and the length he has off the tee could destroy two of the three courses in use this weekend. I like his chances at a nice price.
Joakim Lagergren is nearly always my staple pick in this tournament and while he doesn’t get Carnoustie out of the way on the opening day, he doesn’t play it on Saturday which is the next best thing. Lagergren has form figures here of 4-4-12-MC-3 and while his recent form hasn’t been anything to write home about, as I keep on saying and do every time we have a tournament on a links course, form is largely irrelevant as it is a different game. He clearly loves these courses. He has twice fired 62s in this tournament and seems to enjoy the format. I’ll pay to see if this can finally be the year he wins it.
The other bet I like is for Tapio Pulkkanen who was fourth here in 2018, the year when the wind was up and that might be significant here. He’s from Finland so he isn’t going to be terrible in the wind at any time. Pulkkanen probably should have won the Czech Masters, although obviously as we were on the winner I’m glad he didn’t! He was in the top 20 in the BMW PGA Championship last time out so he has continued his good play. The year he was fourth here he began with a 76. If he can get out of Carnoustie in better shape on Thursday then he could go very well over the weekend.
Tips
Back B.Grace to win Alfred Dunhill Links Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
Back J.Lagergren to win Alfred Dunhill Links Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
Back T.Pulkkanen to win Alfred Dunhill Links Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Coral (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
Back R.MacIntyre to win Alfred Dunhill Links Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Betway (1/5 1-7)
Back M.Woo Lee to win Alfred Dunhill Links Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Betway (1/5 1-7)
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