Week 16 of the NFL 2021 has already been a dramatic one and that is set to continue when it concludes in a hugely important Monday Night Football as the New Orleans Saints host the Miami Dolphins in a must not lose game for both teams.
Both these teams go into the match with identical 7-7 records for the season and will be looking to join the teams in the final wildcard position of their respective Conference who are 8-7. Losing just isn’t an option for either here.
New Orleans Saints
The New Orleans Saints were looking like their race might have been run a couple of weeks ago when they were sat on a 5-7 record but successive wins have come at the right time and while they can no longer win the NFC South, they do know that if they win their final three matches they will secure one of the wildcard spots in the playoffs. That isn’t going to be easy but a win against the champions Tampa Bay Buccaneers without conceding a point will certainly give them plenty of confidence.
Unfortunately, since that win over the Bucs Covid-19 has continued to rear its head and the Saints go into this one without their three main quarterbacks with Jameis Winston out for the season and Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill on IR. That means the rookie Ian Book will not only start his first NFL game here but he’ll do it on primetime with the eyes of the nation watching him. You sense he’ll rely a lot on the ball carrying abilities of Alvin Kamara to try and get the job done. The positive is that this New Orleans defence kept Tampa Bay scoreless last week so they might not need an avalanche of points to win.
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Miami Dolphins
It is almost unthinkable that the Miami Dolphins began this season with just one win from their opening eight matches. They looked like an absolute mess, seemingly not knowing whether Tua was going to be their option at quarterback moving forward or Jacoby Brissett. They finally decided on the former despite a lot of rumours that DeShaun Watson would become a Dolphins quarterback around the time of the trade deadline.
That looks to be an inspired decision now because the Dolphins are on a six match winning streak which has left them in control of their own destiny in terms of where their season goes from here. They need to win out to guarantee extending their season but the way they are playing you can’t rule that out. Their defence is playing wonderful football at the minute and if they could just light up a little more offensively this could yet be a special season for the Fins.
Betting
I want to take New Orleans Saints on here with their quarterback issues and one or two other areas where injuries are hurting them but I’m not sure I trust the Miami Dolphins offensively to get the job done. They don’t put up the sort of points you would expect of a team who are 7-7 and who are still in control of their own destiny in the wildcard race. I certainly don’t want to be on New Orleans with all their problems so it is the points for me.
I wouldn’t normally look twice at a line under 40 in a primetime game but when you consider that the New Orleans defence has just kept a powerful Tampa Bay offense to zero points you would think they will be able to restrict the Miami Dolphins to a low total. On the flip side of that any points the Saints pick up are going to be done on the ground which will take time off the clock so actually under 38.5 points carries enough upside to be taken in this one.
Tips
Back Under 38.5pts for a 3/10 stake at 1.83 with Coral
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