While all eyes might well be on Argentina to see if they can progress in the FIFA World Cup 2022 tournament, at the same time Saudi Arabia and Mexico will do battle with both teams looking to make their own progression in the competition.
Saudi Arabia blew this group wide open when they beat Argentina in their opening match but having lost their second one they know only a win here guarantees they go through. Mexico have to win this game and if Argentina don’t lose the Latin side will need to win by enough to cover at least a three goal difference disadvantage.
Where to watch
This match will be shown live and in full on the BBC 2 channel in the UK. The shortened build-up to this one begins at 6.45pm with kick off also coming at 7pm.
Saudi Arabia
There were fears going into the tournament that Saudi Arabia might be out of their depth and one of the harder teams to watch in the competition. The exact opposite has been true. They have been more than competitive and have actually been one of the best teams in the event to watch with their intent to get the ball forward and look to score whenever they get the opportunity. That should be applauded whatever happens to them in this game.
Saudi Arabia have taken risks defensively and they have ridden their luck at the back, getting numerous tight offside calls go their way in their opening game before finally coming unstuck in the second one. Herve Renard has clearly acknowledged that his defenders probably aren’t good enough as a collective unit to contain the sides in this group so he has decided attack is the best form of defence. He now needs his attacking players to convert a better percentage of what is created.
Mexico
If Saudi Arabia are one of the surprise packages of the tournament, Mexico have to be classed as one of the disappointments of it so far. They are yet to score a goal in their opening two matches and in truth they haven’t really created a chance that you would call a clear cut one. That is clearly going to have to change because Mexico have to win this match and if they hear that Argentina are avoiding defeat then they are going to have to win by a few goals to progress.
We know that Mexico will control the football here. That hasn’t been an issue at any stage of the tournament but they have to find a way of getting enough dangerous players into the box so that they can give themselves the best chance to score the goals they need to progress. One thing which will be helpful is this Saudi defence is not great technically so if Mexico press high they should be able to feast on what is available to them.
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Team News
Herve Renard has a few selection issues to overcome in this match. His captain Salman Al Faraj has been ruled out of the tournament while Abdulelah Al Malki is suspended. Mohammed Al Burayk is a major doubt too.
Tata Martino lost his captain Andres Guardado with a muscle issue in the last game and they don’t clear up over four days so Edson Alvarez could come into the side. Wolves striker Raul Jimenez may well start with the need for goals as apparent as it is.
Betting
I don’t see a scenario where a 1-0 win for Mexico takes them through to the next round because I’m far from convinced that Poland get thrashed by Argentina so the Mexicans should have it in their mind that they are going to need a minimum of two goals in this match in order to keep their tournament alive. With that in mind, the 4/5 on them scoring over 1.5 goals looks a huge price against a defence that a pretty average Poland team has just scored two against and that has conceded over 2 in their xGA in both games.
The advantage Mexico have in their quest for goals in this match is if they open the scoring the Saudis are going to have to be even more attacking and adventurous because they will be out of the tournament with a defeat. That is only likely to make Saudi Arabia even easier to get through so then it becomes whether Mexico can show a clinical enough edge to get the two goals they need. I expect Tata Martino’s men to get into great positions, especially the longer this one goes on and the Saudis tire from having chased the ball for so long, and I fancy then to get at least two goals.
Tips
Back Mexico – Over 1.5 goals for a 5/10 stake at 1.73 with Bet365
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