The quarter finals conclude at the Copa America on Saturday night with the last two matches take place beginning with the one between the former winners Colombia and the invited team Panama in Arizona.
Colombia made it to this stage by dominating their group in the early part of the tournament whereas Panama had to come from behind in their section but got out of it and will now be looking to emulate Canada and reach the semi-final as a CONCACAF entrant.
Where to watch
The match will be shown live and in full on the Premier Sports 1 channel in the UK with the coverage getting going at 10.50pm ahead of the 11pm kick off.
Colombia
Colombia went into the tournament on a lengthy unbeaten run and they have extended that to 26 matches without defeat having avoided a loss in their three games at this tournament to date. They are looking very much like a side who are confident enough to lay down a strong challenge to win this event and have the age profile to then potentially go again in a couple of years when they are back in this part of the world for the World Cup.
Colombia have looked really good in front of goal in this tournament. There are a few teams who when they go forward you are guessing whether the ball ends up in the back of the net but that isn’t the case with this lot. You expect them to score and that bodes well for them. They would probably want to be a little tighter at the back when you consider that they play with a double pivot but I would imagine they will be comfortable with where they are at so far.
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Panama
When Panama arrived at the tournament in a group with Uruguay and USA in it they were always going to be outsiders to come out of it but not a forlorn hope. I think it is fair to say that they rode their luck a little bit against USA in their second group game when the Americans were down to 10 men early doors but you still have to take advantage of that and they did and then in what was basically a knockout match against Bolivia they showed they had the goods.
The obvious concern from that match is that Bolivia, a side who showed absolutely nothing going forward in their other two matches, were able to find the back of the net and when you consider this Colombia attack are among the most potent in the competition that doesn’t bode well. To be fair to Panama though, there are goals in them and they have their best midfielder back from suspension here in Houston Dynamo playmaker Adalberto Carrasquilla.
Betting
I like Panama and have won a fair bit of cash betting on them in this tournament and the Gold Cup over the last 12 months but I find it hard to believe that their run at this competition doesn’t end here. If they go at Colombia they are likely to get picked off and if they sit in and look to take the game to penalties there is so much quality and variation in this Colombian attack that I would expect it to break through at some point in the 90 minutes.
I’m a little surprised that Colombia are only being asked to give up 1.5 goals on the Asian handicap because I do think that there is a bigger gulf between the two than that. It might have been that had Anibal Godoy been fit then Panama could have sat back and looked to hit Colombia on the counter but without him I just don’t see a strategy other than hope Colombia are wasteful in front of goal. I would imagine the South Americans want this wrapped up as quickly as possible though and I expect them to cruise into the semi-final.
Tips
Back Colombia (-1.5AH) to beat Panama for a 3/10 stake at 2.03 with Bet365
