The Wimbledon men’s singles final will take place on Centre Court to start off a special day of sport on Sunday afternoon and we will see a repeat of the title match from a year ago as Carlos Alcaraz takes on Novak Djokovic.
Alcaraz saw off Djokovic in a five-set epic last year and neutrals will be hoping for a repeat of the tension and drama that they created in that match during what promises to be a mouth-watering final on the main show court.
Carlos Alcaraz
The defending champion has made it all the way through to the final but I don’t think that Carlos Alcaraz has looked quite as on it this year as he did last year. There are reasons for that. He came here off the back of just one match on the grass after winning the French Open which was completely different a year ago. You also wonder just how much an appearance with his idol Rafael Nadal at the Olympics in a couple of weeks has been on his mind too because he has gone missing for a period in almost every match so far.
You have to go back to the second round for the last time that Alcaraz won in straight sets and in each of the first two rounds, although he won 3-0 both times he was taken to a tiebreak in the opening set so he hasn’t hit fifth gear from the off yet. That has meant that he has been on court for a long time and you wonder if that catches up with him. He hasn’t had the toughest route to the final but the Queens winner Tommy Paul and Daniil Medvedev both needed beating.
Novak Djokovic
It has been the other way around for Novak Djokovic but I guess when you consider how the French Open ended for him it was always going to be a slow start and then getting better with every match. He has done that and while I wouldn’t like to suggest he is anywhere near his best, he has played better each time he has been on the court and he certainly won’t be complaining that he didn’t have to play his quarter final match so he should be nice and fresh for this final.
Djokovic has only dropped two sets in the tournament to date, although that is from one less match than usual. He has won his last two matches in straight sets but he is yet to face anyone in the top 10 in the world in the competition so far so there is an element of doubt over exactly how well he is playing. You would imagine he will be required to move more in this match than any other in the tournament so the fitness of his knee is going to be tested.
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Head-to-head
It feels like these two have met often over the last few years but this will actually only be the sixth time they will be either side of the net against each other. Djokovic leads the five battles so far 3-2 having won both of their meetings since they faced off in the final of this tournament last year. That was one of two times they have met in a final. Alcaraz won here a year ago and then Djokovic won in Cincinnati a few weeks later. Both matches went to a deciding set. They have only met once on grass which was in that final here 12 months ago and surface history is on the side of Alcaraz but overall history sits with Djokovic.
Betting
I guess the question is whether Novak Djokovic is performing better than he has done for much of 2024 here or whether he has just had a soft schedule. I think it is the latter. There were times when Lorenzo Musetti was outplaying him in the semi-final but he couldn’t maintain his level and his intensity but there is no problem in that regard with Carlos Alcaraz. He can keep his intensity up for five hours if he needs to so I do think we are going to need to see the best of Djokovic in this match.
I’m not convinced with his injury and everything though that we are going to see him at that level. I expect Alcaraz to start this final a lot better than he did last year as well where nerves were clearly visible. Since the start of that final he has added two Grand Slam titles to his collection so the occasion isn’t going to be too big for him this time around. I certainly don’t see this final being won in straight sets because both are big fighters so the best bet in the final given that I think Alcaraz wins is for him to do so but both players to win a set.
Tips
Back C.Alcaraz to win and both to win a set for a 3/10 stake at 2.63 with Sky Bet
