Boxing Day in Australia means one thing, that the entertaining Test series between Australia and India will continue when the penultimate and most pivotal match of the five begins at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.
The two teams go into this fourth game locked at 1-1 in the series after rain won the day in the third match in Brisbane so one of them will secure at least a share of the spoils if they win this and be in control of the series heading to Sydney.
Australia
This series has been a bit of a battle for Australia. They had to come from behind after they were comprehensively beaten in the opening match but having done that they would have headed to Brisbane confident of taking control of the series despite injuries rearing their ugly head and a couple of players who are out of form. The rain stopped them from doing that although they were the team most likely to win had there been enough time to win.
Australia are still having to deal with injuries and they have made a change to their squad in the batting department so they aren’t settled and comfortable with how they are playing which isn’t a good thing when you consider that this match could be the one that decides the series. They are desperate for their key men to stand up and be counted here. The one thing those key men have is plenty of experience of this occasion which can help.
India
India headed over to Australia with their own issues at the beginning of the series but they were able to defy them to go one up in the proceedings with a pretty emphatic win at Perth. They got on the wrong end of the day-night match in Adelaide and then in Brisbane they were hanging on a little, albeit the rain was such that they were never really in any danger of losing the game. They have had over a week since then to reassess and get themselves in order to give this game a real big shot.
India have had the surprise retirement of R Ashwin to deal with since the last game so it will be interesting to see what impact that has on the squad but they have a top six which can win any game of cricket and a seam attack which seems to have the better of their opposing batting order. You sense that matches between these two will be decided on fine margins so if the big India players can notice when they are and manage them well then the tourists could well win here.
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Team News
Australia will be forced into two changes for this match because they have left Nathan McSweeney out of their squad. Sam Konstas has been called up as a potential opening option. Josh Hazlewood has been ruled out of the remainder of the series. Scott Boland is his likely replacement although Jhye Richardson is in the squad.
India are keeping their cards close to their chest in terms of their team selection but with R Ashwin having retired the spin option is between Ravi Jadeja and Washington Sundar. There is a chance for both to play given that temperatures are expected to get into the 40 degrees range.
Betting
This should be a cracking match and one I expect Jasprit Bumrah to dominate. He has a match wickets line of 5.5 here and that feels within range for a bowler who has dominated the series so far. He covered this line in the first game and we would have cashed before the end of the first innings in the last one. The day-night match only yielded four wickets but India only bowled in one innings and Australia got to their target after just one Bumrah over in that match.
The Indian superstar has played here on two previous occasions and he has cleared six wickets in both of them. In fact, in the first game we was in after his first bowling effort with six wickets in that. Bumrah has had the wood on this Australian batting unit and now he has a rookie opener on debut who could be a rabbit in headlights against him initially. This line feels high but it doesn’t look high enough so I’ll play the over in this one.
Tips
Back J.Bumrah – Over 5.5 match wickets for a 3/10 stake at 1.80 with Bet365
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