The end to stage 2 in the 2016 Tour de France was epic. I thought the breakaway had enough in hand – Peter Sagan even thought he had claimed the runner-up position at the line. Thankfully, my tips came in 1st (Sagan) and 3rd (Alejandro Valverde) and the two other riders I felt would go well, Julian Alaphilippe and Dan Martin finished 2nd and 4th respectively. I would be surprised if Tour de France Stage 3 will be that exciting.
The Profile
Stage 3 is the longest stage of the race thus far with a 223.5km course from Granville to Angers.
The first half of the stage is a little lumpy with the only classified climb, a category 4 inside the first 30kms. From the 100km mark the roads are flatter until the finish line.
This will be the classic stage – breakaway – big gap – chase by the sprinters teams = bunch sprint into Angers.
The course takes the riders almost due south and away from the coast so there is less likelihood of the dreaded cross winds for the peloton to contend with on Monday.
The Sprinters
As we have one bunch sprint so far we must mention the winner of that sprint finish first – Mark Cavendish (Dimension Data). I gave him little chance in stage 1, he had been beaten in the British road race championship sprint the previous Sunday and I felt the caliber of riders here were that much better. I did mention he has a lot of experience at the end and Cavendish definitely used that to win his 27th TdF stage on Saturday. In earlier pricing Cavendish is third favourite at 5.00 – this puts him much closer to Kittel and Greipel than in the betting markets prior to stage 1. At 5.00-6.00 he must be a good EW selection. He is also brimming with confidence, a huge factor in the sprinters psyche with his stage win and yellow jersey.
Marcel Kittel (Etixx-Quickstep) was red-hot favourite for Stage 1 but never got on terms with Cavendish in the bunch sprint nor Greipel in the Intermediate Sprint on the stage. I was a little underwhelmed to be truthful given his performance in the early stages in this years Giro d’Italia on similar stage finishes. The crash did cause havoc inside the last 500 metres and no team really developed their sprint trains so Kittel might be worth a second chance. His price is around the 2.9 mark so you can only really back him to win.
Andre Greipel (Lotto-Soudal) finished 4th in stage 1 behind Cavendish, Kittel and Sagan. Like Kittel he never really got going – ultimately following the wrong man – Kittel, in the closing stages. Greipel is second favourite at 4.33-4.50 to win stage 3. I’m not sure he will win in Angers on Monday.
The only other rider that can be seriously considered for stage 4 is new the Maillot Jaune, Peter Sagan (Tinkoff). Sagan finished 2nd on stage 1, beating the more heavily fancied German sprint duo and then won stage 2 on terrain where he was more favoured. He will be riding as leader and broke his stage winless TDF streak dating back to the 2013. A price of 6.00-7.00, the same as for stage 2 looks to have a lot of value as an EW bet.
Notes from stage 2 – two of the GC contenders Alberto Contador and Richie Porte on their rivals. Porte was unlucky with a mechanical inside the last 6kms when the pace was really high. Contador looks to have been suffering from his crash on stage 1 and crashed again in the finale od stage 2. Julian Alaphilippe (my selection) have moved to the top of the Young Riders standings following his excellent 2nd place on stage 2.
Cheeky Overall Winner Bet
So the race is 2 stages old and the big two Chris Froome and Nairo Quintana are locked together on the same time. Due to Contador and Porte losing time the ‘big two’ have seen their prices for overall victory come in a little. Looking at the other riders who could challenge for 3rd place, Warren Barguil a rider I wrote off in my pre-race preview now becomes a little more attractive as a betting proposition.
Barguil currently sits in 4th place, avoiding the crash on the 1st stage and finishing well on stage 2. He did not lose time and sits 50+ seconds in front of Contador and almost 2 minutes in front of Porte. As his strength is climbing he has now creeped firmly onto my radar as a possible 3rd place challenger. He can be backed at 151.0 and this is worth a small EW punt. At worst I see him in the top 10 so we can expect the 151.0 to come in considerably, so there is potential to back now and lay later on for a profit.
Tour de France Stage 2 Tips
WON – Back Mark Cavendish to win stage 3 with a 1.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at odds of 5.00 with Bet 365.
Back Peter Sagan to win stage 3 with a 1.25/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at odds of 7.00 with Bet365.
Back Cavendish and Sagan here:
Back Warren Barguil to win the 2016 Tour de France outright with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at odds of 151.0 with Betfair.
Back Barguil here:
