The ATP Tour heads to the desert this week for the BNP Paribas Open as the ATP Indian Wells opens up the Sunshine Swing with the first Masters 1000 of the year with the majority of the stars of the game looking for a big title relatively early in the campaign.
Taylor Fritz won the biggest title of his career when he took down Rafael Nadal in the final here a year ago. The American is in the field looking to make a defence of the title but some top talent will oppose him as ever.
Recent Winners
2022 – Taylor Fritz
2021 – Cameron Norrie
2019 – Dominic Thiem
2018 – Juan Martin del Potro
2017 – Roger Federer
2016 – Novak Djokovic
2015 – Novak Djokovic
2014 – Novak Djokovic
2013 – Rafael Nadal
2012 – Roger Federer
The Format
This tournament is in keeping with the usual Masters 1000 format. 96 players will begin the tournament with 32 seeded players who receive byes into the second round with the other 64 men battling it out to face a seed in that stage of the tournament. Every match in the event is the best of three sets and there is a normal tiebreak in the final set. The draw has been announced and is played out as drawn in the bracket.
Top Quarter
The US Open champion Carlos Alcaraz was forced to miss the Australian Open earlier in the year but he has already won a tournament in Argentina since his return to action and finished second in Brazil. He was a semi-finalist here a year ago and heads up the top quarter as the number one seed. He gets a bye into the last 64 as do seven other seeds in this quarter. They are Tallon Griekspoor, British player Dan Evans, Pablo Carreno Busta, Hubert Hurkacz, Australian Open semi-finalist Tommy Paul, Francisco Cerundolo and Felix Auger-Aliassime.
There are a number of recognisable players without a seeding in this quarter. That means they have to enter the tournament in the first round. They include home star Jack Sock who has been given a wildcard into the tournament. Jan-Lennard Struff, Alexei Popyrin, Thanasi Kokkinakis and Jack Draper all have the game to go well in these conditions. Andy Murray has been in marathon inspired form in 2023 and he is in this section too.
Second Quarter
The defending champion Taylor Fritz will look to make a successful defence of his title from this second quarter of the draw. The American is on a collision course to meet Holger Rune in the quarter final if this section follows the path of the seeding. Six other seeds will be out to stop that from happening. They are Miomir Kecmanovic, Lorenzo Musetti, Jannik Sinner, Alex de Minaur, Borna Coric and Sebastian Baez, each of whom begin their tournament in round two.
As with the top quarter there are a number of recognisable names in amongst the unseeded players in this quarter. Former US Open champion Dominic Thiem, winner here in 2019, is a standout name as is another man who got his hands on the US Open trophy in Stan Wawrinka. Elsewhere the likes of Adrian Mannarino, Fabio Fognini, Filip Krajinovic and Richard Gasquet will look to revoke past glories. Mikael Ymer, Marton Fucsovics and J.J. Wolf will hope for big weeks too.
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Third Quarter
The US Open finalist Casper Ruud is the leading name in the third quarter of the draw this week. He has never gone beyond the third round of this tournament though which might catch the attention of the other seeds in this section of the draw. One of those is the recent winner in Rotterdam, Qatar and Dubai last month in Daniil Medvedev. He is in great form but he’s never reached the quarter finals here in the past either so one of the other six seeds could be the one to come through. They are Yoshihito Nishioka, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Karen Khachanov, Alexander Zverev, Roberto Bautista Agut and Botic van de Zandschulp.
As with the other quarters there are unseeded recognisable names in the quarter here. John Isner would be the leading one of those although fellow American player Brandon Nakashima is beginning to make strides in the game. Emil Ruusuvuori is a player who will look to win a few matches this week while former finalist Nikoloz Basilashvili was the last man into the draw when Novak Djokovic withdrew. He’s in this quarter as are Cristian Garin and Diego Schwartzman.
Bottom Quarter
Stefanos Tsitsipas ran into Novak Djokovic in the final of the Australian Open earlier in the season and came up short in that match and the Greek hasn’t been overly active since then. He is the top seed in the bottom quarter of the draw and is on course to face Andrey Rublev in the quarter final if this section works out to the seeding. Among the other seeds looking to stop that from happening are Cameron Norrie, who has been in two ATP finals in the last few weeks, Maxime Cressy, Grigor Dimitrov, Frances Tiafoe, Matteo Berrettini and Denis Shapovalov.
Once again there are recognisable names in the bottom quarter as well as some future stars of the game. They include Jiri Lehecka who shot to prominence at the Australian Open, Ugo Humbert who will hope this is the week his career gets back on track, Alexander Bublik, who could be a threat in these conditions, Lorenzo Sonego and Jordan Thompson. There is also a return to action for the popular Gael Monfils in this section.
Betting
This is a tournament where I always think it is worth opposing the market leaders and established names. The last four champions here would be considered as outsiders while beaten finalists in that span include Milos Raonic and Nikoloz Basilashvili. When you consider that none of Daniil Medvedev, Casper Ruud nor Stefanos Tsitsipas have a good record here and there are injury concerns over Carlos Alcaraz, it would be no surprise for the bigger priced winners to be added to.
My first main bet isn’t actually that big a price considering those who have gone before him but Taylor Fritz looks to have landed in a plum spot in the draw to make a successful defence of his title. Fritz threatened to win here in 2021 when he made the semi-final before completing the job in 2022 when he took care of Rafael Nadal in the final. Fritz was probably disadvantaged by a marathon quarter final two years ago else he could have made the last two finals here. This is clearly a venue he loves and while I’m rarely a fan of backing defending champions, the fact that Fritz is seeded to meet Sebastian Baez followed by one of the inconsistent Borna Coric or Alex de Minaur to make a quarter final where the worst case scenario is Jannik Sinner waits for him I think he has a dream draw. Fritz won Delray Beach last month and only went out in a deciding tiebreak in the semi-final in Acapulco. He warmed up for the week by partnering Aryna Sabalenka to win the Tiebreak Tens event here on Tuesday and looks a standout bet at 22/1.
Karen Khachanov gave us a mighty good run for our money in the Australian Open in January when he made it all the way to the semi-final and while we had nothing to show for his efforts he might make up for that this week. The Russian is a really underrated hard court player. In the last five years his record on a hard court has been 36:17 (wins:losses), 19:20, 21:13, 20:!4 and 23:16. He is 8:4 this year and has made the semi-finals of the last two hard court grand slams. He isn’t one of those bigger hitters who struggle here. He reached the quarter final here in 2019 when Rafael Nadal got him in two tiebreak sets and the last 16 here in 2021 when eventual finalist Nikoloz Basilashvili got him. If there is a concern then it would be he’s only played one tournament since Melbourne but in a quarter where Ruud and Medvedev are the top seeds, I’ll pay to see if the Russian can take advantage of their poor records here.
Tips
Back T.Fritz to win BNP Paribas Open (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 23.00 with Coral (1/2 1-2)
Back K.Khachanov to win BNP Paribas Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Bet365 (1/2 1-2)
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