The final of the ATP Miami Open takes place inside the Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday evening when two entertaining players meet for the latest Masters 1000 title when Grigor Dimitrov takes on Jannik Sinner for the title.
Sinner has won this tournament before and is looking to go one better than when losing in the final last year while Dimitrov will be going in search of a first title in Florida having previously won a Masters 1000 event in Cincinnati.
Grigor Dimitrov
Often when a player who isn’t necessarily expected to get to a final of this magnitude does so the inevitable line about him playing the best tennis of his career gets trotted out, usually incorrectly, but I think on this occasion that could be said with some justification of Grigor Dimitrov, who quite simply has been excellent this week. It isn’t just the level of players he has beaten but the style that he has beaten them with which has really caught the eye.
Dimitrov has seen off Hubert Hurkacz, Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev in the last three rounds to make this final and he has hit the ball so cleanly in all of those matches and has been quick to get to the net where some of the volleys he has produced have been incredible. That has all come off the back of a decent serving game and if the Bulgarian has one more performance of that level in him then he could yet walk off with this title.
Jannik Sinner
It is pretty clear that Jannik Sinner has something of a love affair with Miami. He has won this title in the past and he has been beaten in the final of it. He’ll be keen to replicate the former here rather than the latter and end up coming out on top to add this title to the Australian Open one which he won earlier in the campaign. Much like his opponent in this final, Sinner has played with a style and a confidence that has been really impressive.
In terms of opponents, Sinner hasn’t had the hardest route through the draw. Daniil Medvedev was a tough act in the semi-final but he dispatched of him with ease, although I don’t think the Russian had played particularly well at any stage this week so that wasn’t the surprise it might have been. Prior to that, he had only played one player in the top 50 in the rankings and that was Tallon Griekspoor who is sliding down the rankings rather than up them. He might just be a touch overrated on what he has faced so far.
Special Offer
Open a new Sporting Index account and bet £10 on the ATP Tour (min odds 1/2) to get £20 in free bets (2x£10 free bets) to use on any sports market! Click the image below to take advantage of this great offer! 18+ T&Cs apply. Gamble Responsibly.
Head-to-head
These two men have met on three previous occasions and it is Jannik Sinner who has a 2-1 advantage. He has won both of their past battles on a hard court which were both last year so they probably feel the most relevant. This will be the second time they have faced each other in Miami with Sinner having won here in straight sets a year ago. This will be the first time that they have met in a final of any kind so history is on the side of Sinner but perhaps not by as much as people might have thought.
Betting
I think Jannik Sinner will win this final but I expect it to be competitive in the early stages before Sinner runs away with it after the first set but there is nothing in the form of the odds or lines on any of the markets that can get me on that scenario happening with a bit of wiggle room so I will go a little outside of the box for a bet on this final and that comes in the form of the total aces where the line of 12.5 could be a little on the high side.
I say that because these two men have met three times previously and in eight sets of tennis between them there has been just nine aces. Given that two of those meetings were on hard courts last year there is enough to believe that not much is going to change in that regard. Sinner sent seven aces down in his semi-final but only five combined in the two matches prior to that and the Italian is an excellent returner in the mould of a Carlos Alcaraz against whom Dimitrov hit four aces. This line looks high in a match of the type I expect but if this is a one-sided match it definitely looks high so I’ll play the under.
Tips
Back Under 12.5 aces for a 3/10 stake at 1.83 with Bet365
