The second leg of the Sunshine Slam begins on Wednesday when the stars of the ATP Tour head to Miami for the ATP Miami Open, the second Masters 1000 event of the season and one which is hugely anticipated after last week.
Jannik Sinner won this tournament a year ago but he is now banned after his drug issue so we are guaranteed a different winner here. There is a wide open feel about this competition, much like there was last week.
Recent Winners
2024 – Jannik Sinner
2023 – Daniil Medvedev
2022 – Carlos Alcaraz
2021 – Hubert Hurkacz
2019 – Roger Federer
2018 – John Isner
2017 – Roger Federer
2016 – Novak Djokovic
2015 – Novak Djokovic
2014 – Novak Djokovic
The Format
We have the usual size Masters 1000 event field for this tournament. 96 players will be in the field once qualifying has concluded with the 32 seeds straight into the second round. Qualifiers and those ranked outside the top 32 play in the first round to join them there. The draw has been completed already and the tournament is a straight knockout with every match over the best of three sets. There is a tiebreak in the final set should it reach 6-6. The champion is crowned on the second Sunday of the competition.
Top Quarter
With the reigning champion Jannik Sinner out of the tournament, Alexander Zverev is the top seed this week, as he was last week, and he’ll be hoping for a much better showing here than he delivered in Indian Wells. He is on a collision course with the winner of that event in Jack Draper in the quarter final but six other seeds will be looking to stop that from materialising. They are Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Arthur Fils, Frances Tiafoe, the finalist in Indian Wells in Holger Rune, Tomas Machac and Alexei Popyrin.
The players entering in the first round in this tournament are full of quality. One of them is Tallon Griekspoor, the man who made the quarter final in Indian Wells having touched off Alexander Zverev while Tomas Martin Etcheverry, Jan-Lennard Struff, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Matteo Arnaldi could all go deep in the competition. Two big hitting Americans are first round opponents in Christopher Eubanks and Reilly Opelka while Roman Safiullin and Jenson Brooksby could both be dangerous.
Second Quarter
The former winner at Indian Wells, Taylor Fritz, is the leading seed in the second quarter. He’ll be looking to go better than he did in the desert last week as he bids for a first Miami Open title. If the draw goes to the seeding then the American number one will take on Andrey Rublev in the quarter final but some big named seeds are out to stop that from happening. They are Matteo Berrettini, Ugo Humbert, Alex de Minaur, Ben Shelton, Hubert Hurkacz, the 2021 champion of this event, and Denis Shapovalov.
This looks a competitive section as it is but there will be plenty of attention on it even in the early stages as two of the more promising newbies on the scene are in this quarter in the form of Joao Fonseca and Learner Tien. They meet in a tasty first round tie while the former Indian Wells champion Cameron Norrie is another entering in the opening stage of the tournament. Luciano Darderi, Nicolas Jarry, Lorenzo Sonego, Kei Nishikori, Zizou Bergs and Mariano Navone are some of the others starting out in the first couple of days.
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Third Quarter
Novak Djokovic came and went from the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells very quickly last week and he’ll be hoping to put up a much stronger showing in the Miami Open where he takes his place in the third quarter. He is on course to face Daniil Medvedev in the quarter final should both perform to their seeding. Alex Michelsen, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Lorenzo Musetti, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Seb Korda and Jiri Lehecka are the other seeds who will be out to deny that matchup from taking place.
The standout player among the unseeded fraternity in the third quarter of the draw is the rejuvenated Gael Monfils, who could really enjoy himself in these conditions. There is British representation in this quarter when the qualifier Billy Harris goes at it while Brandon Holt is a home qualifier who has a big reputation. Rinky Hijikata, Quinten Halys, Arthur Rinderknech and Fabian Marozsan are others who could have a solid run here.
Bottom Quarter
The bottom quarter of the draw is where Carlos Alcaraz will be looking to add the title to the one which he won in 2022. He will have been disappointed to lose in the semi-final at Indian Wells last week where he was defending the title and might be fuelled by that here. Casper Ruud is the man scheduled to face him in terms of the seedings but you would imagine the likes of Alejandro Tabilo, Francisco Cerundolo, Tommy Paul, Grigor Dimitrov, Karen Khachanov and Brandon Nakashima could all have something to say about that.
There are plenty of solid unseeded players in the draw in the bottom quarter too where the majority of the attention will be on Nick Kyrgios as he continues his return from injury. David Goffin won through the first round last week and he’ll be looking to do likewise here. Miomir Kecmanovic is another who could have a solid run while the likes of Aleksandar Vukic, Mackenzie McDonald, Alexander Bublik and Sebastian Baez are others who could shine.
Betting
I’ll go for a couple of bets in the top half of the draw where the first player I like this week is Ben Shelton. The American kind of went under the radar last week but he made the quarter final where it took the eventual champion Jack Draper to stop him and earlier in the campaign Shelton made the semi-finals of the Australian Open. The American will appreciate the faster courts here and although the air slows the balls down a touch, they stay hit when they come off the racquet of Shelton so that bodes well. There is nothing in his quarter to unduly worry him so I expect another deep run from the home star.
The other bet I’ll go with is the man who lost out in the final last week in Holger Rune. It might be that the disappointment of last week is too much to recover from so quickly but a potential rematch with Jack Draper in the last 16 should ensure that he is up for this. Rune was playing really good tennis heading into that final last week but things just didn’t go the way of the Dane. There is nothing in these conditions that should hinder him too much though and with Alexander Zverev looking vulnerable having done little since the Australian Open and Draper surely on too much of a high after winning last week the draw hasn’t worked out too badly for Rune. If he was shorter than 33/1 I probably wouldn’t get involved but at the prices I think he is just about worth a punt.
Tips
Back B.Shelton to win ATP Miami Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with William Hill (1/2 1-2)
Back H.Rune to win ATP Miami Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with William Hill (1/2 1-2)
Back them here:
