History was made at the Australian Open on Saturday when Ash Barty won the women’s tournament and it could be made once again on Sunday when Rafael Nadal meets Daniil Medvedev in the men’s final inside the Rod Laver Arena.
A victory for Nadal in this final would take him to the summit of the Grand Slam champions with 21 while Medvedev goes in search of successive major titles having landed the US Open last year. To say this one is nicely set up is an understatement.
Rafael Nadal
This has never been the best Grand Slam for Rafael Nadal but his record in it is still pretty good when you consider he has won it once in 2009 and lost in four finals since then. The concern surrounding him going into this tournament was whether he was going to be undercooked having missed the second half of last season but he has rapidly rubbished any such thoughts having come through a mixture of straightforward matches and marathon encounters.
Nadal had to go through a deciding set to overcome Denis Shapovalov in his quarter final in a match which went four hours and he was taken to four sets by Matteo Berrettini in the semi-final so the immediate question is whether the Spaniard has the energy to go deep in this final, which you would imagine he’ll have to do. The one thing we don’t need to ask about him is whether he has the quality to win Grand Slams. He’s proven at that although he will have seen Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic shoot for #21 and fail so that is something for him to think about.
Daniil Medvedev
Should Daniil Medvedev win this final then it would be a rare occurrence that the champion has had to stave off a match point earlier in the competition as Felix Auger-Aliassime was a point away from dumping the Russian out in the quarter final. Medvedev lived to tell the tale and then put paid to Stefanos Tsitsipas in the semi-final in a good four set match so much like his opponent in the final, Medvedev is battle hardened coming into this final.
Medvedev is aiming for the London bus situation with regards to Grand Slam titles after he ended his duck at the US Open last season. There is a feeling that Medvedev could dominate the two hard court slams for a while and he has the chance to back that theory up with a win here. Medvedev was the favourite going into the tournament though and it isn’t always easy justifying that tag so if he does win here he deserves plenty of credit.
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Head to head
These two men have met on four previous occasions with Rafael Nadal coming out on top three times to the one of Daniil Medvedev. The Russian will know that he won the last meeting between the two. Interestingly their last three meetings have all gone to a deciding set including the only previous final the two have played. That was in the final of the 2019 US Open which Nadal won in a decider after Medvedev came from two sets down. You sense these two are going in different directions in their careers now so it will be interesting to see if history has any bearing on this final.
Betting
These two have played three successive deciding set matches and that makes me think we are in for an extended contest here. I say that not just because they have gone to deciding sets but also three of the last six sets they have played have gone to a tiebreak. All of their meetings have been on a hard court so there might be something in that. I guess the negative to a long game is while Nadal might be competitive for three sets he might fade the longer the match goes on.
By then though I think we’ll be well on the way to over 39.5 games. If the run of a tiebreak every other set or even just one in the match continues then we are likely to only need four sets for this line to cover and I would be surprised if this is won in straight sets. Both these men are fighters, they are smart tennis players to think on the move and make adjustments, as we saw with Medvedev in the US Open between these two three years ago, and they know how to win these big matches. I like over 39.5 games here.
Tips
WON – Back Over 39.5 games for a 3/10 stake at 1.85 with William Hill
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