Australian Open Tennis 2024 – Day 11 Tips and Betting Preview

The quarter finals conclude at the Australian Open on Wednesday when the other half of the draws to the ones on show on Tuesday take to the Rod Laver Arena to finalise the eight singles players who will compete in the semi-finals of the first Grand Slam of the year.

We saw both of the defending champions make progress through to the semi-finals on Tuesday and on Wednesday the likes of Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev will be looking to join them on another competitive day of tennis.

Day Session

Linda Noskova vs Dayana Yastremska

The opening quarter final on Wednesday will ensure we have an unseeded semi-finalist as the young star Linda Noskova goes up against a resurgent Dayana Yastremska in a match where you would imagine a few nerves could play a big part.

Both women are in the quarter final of a Grand Slam for the first time and the winner also knows that regardless of who comes through the other game they will be facing someone in their first Grand Slam semi-final so there is a huge opportunity for one of these two to reach the final and completely change their life. Noskova had her biggest moment so far when she dumped Iga Swiatek out in the third round and I was hoping to see what she had to follow that up with but Elina Svitolina pulled out of her next game after three games so we will never know. Having not played for four days bar a couple of games, Noskova is both fresh and clearly playing well. Yastremska has played a lot of tennis in the last couple of weeks having had to come through qualifying for the tournament and you wonder if that will count against her and catch up with her at some point. I’ve looked around to see if there is a line or price that is wrong in this one but I can’t find one and I can’t really find a way in so I’ll watch these two potential stars rather than bet on it.

Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniil Medvedev

The men’s quarter final in the day session sees two class acts going at it when Hubert Hurkacz takes on Daniil Medvedev in a match which feels like it will have plenty of mileage in it when you consider how dominant these two can be on serve.

This should be a decent match because both men have been playing good tennis for a while and they are used to playing in big matches whether it be the second week of a Grand Slam or finals of any kind. Hurkacz actually has a narrow advantage in the head-to-head between the two but he probably lacks the experience at this stage of a major that Medvedev has. I don’t think we’ve seen Medvedev at his very best here, and this is without doubt his weakest major, so Hurkacz has a chance but he has been known to underperform on a few occasions at this level. If I was pushed I would be betting on the over on games but we’re treading into lines in the 40s and that is an area I don’t really want to go as it doesn’t give us much wiggle room for a four set match where one of the sets gets thrown away in a lengthy contest.

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Night Session

Anna Kalinskaya vs Qinwen Zheng

The night session gets underway with the last of the women’s quarter finals as the unseeded Anna Kalinskaya takes on the only seeded player on show in the female draw on Wednesday in the form of the Chinese ace Qinwen Zheng.

Zheng has been one of the most improved players on the circuit over the last couple of years and you would imagine in 2024 she will make a major breakthrough because she has most of the tools needed to go well in the game but whether she is ready to carry the burden of expectation to be the favourite to reach the final from this part of the draw. The other thing you have to wonder is whether her second serve can stand up to someone who is clearly hitting the ball well as Kalinskaya must be doing in order to beat Sloane Stephens and Jasmine Paolini in the last two rounds. These two have met once in the past which was two years ago and the Russian prevailed in three sets and I sense she could be value in this contest too. The Zheng second serve reminds of the Coco Gauff one from back in the day and while she has come through the draw at some point her poor first serve percentage is going to catch up with her. Kalinskaya has had an excellent first serve percentage this week whereas Zheng made just 44% in her last match but the telling statistics for me is that the Russian has had a positive winners to unforced errors ratio in three of her four matches where Zheng has had a negative ratio in three of her four. Zheng pushes the boundaries with her aggression but if the nerves get to her serve or her groundstrokes she might find she isn’t in enough points to get the job done here. The value has to be with the Russian for me.

Alexander Zverev vs Carlos Alcaraz

The last of the quarter finals to take to the Rod Laver Arena will see the Wimbledon champion Carlos Alcaraz looking to make progress when he meets the German former Grand Slam finalist Alexander Zverev in what has the potential to be a good match.

The caveat to that will be how fit Zverev is after he has gone five sets in the last two rounds, whereas Alcaraz has largely cruised through the draw. If Zverev is fit, and generally he has never had problems backing up from match to match, then this has the potential to be a pulsating contest. I still think Alcaraz wins regardless of the fitness status of the German. I think his all-court game will be too much over five sets but Zverev has the serve and the groundstrokes to keep this competitive. That caveat requires too much guesswork though so I’m happy to sit back and watch this one rather than have a bet on it.


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